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Let’s focus on #17

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Aruba77, May 18, 2022.

  1. ThatBoyNick

    ThatBoyNick Member

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    Defensive versatility would be the sole reason to draft him, but he can rebound and finish at the rim pretty well, you'd hope he can develop a jumper.
     
  2. saleem

    saleem Member

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    Thanks.
     
  3. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    That's not quite true .... the picks that Stone turned down were picks 27 - 30.

    That's a whole different tier of prospect from 17.
     
  4. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    Jaylin Williams would be my choice there .... this team has a lot of offensive firepower (Adding any of the top 3 bigs), what it lacks is defense.
     
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  5. j@amc

    j@amc Member

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    if Jaylin Williams is your target, you could trade down. It would seem that many teams are looking for wing defenders and shooters at this point. Perhaps moving Wood or others for a late first-round pick? Then again, some mock drafts place J. Williams squarely in round 2.

    That said, by my eye test J. Williams has a future in this league. He's an excellent defender and is a plus rebounder.
     
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  6. saleem

    saleem Member

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    Trading down makes sense for him to me too.
    If only Agbaji and Malaki or TyTy are left at 17,
    then Stone should offer it for the 20th and the 25th pick. Take Jaylin at 25, and Terry at 20.
    I'm not sold on Ousmane Dieng at 17. I think he should play one more year in NZ.
     
  7. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    I have a higher value on Wood than the consensus here at CF.

    I think you could get #10 from Washington or #13 from Charlotte for him straight up (salary matching of course). One of Eason / Wiliams here.

    I think you could get 4 or 7 from Sacramento or Portland by adding Tate and #17 & maybe Milwaukee 23 to the mix. (I really don't want to trade Tate but I don't want to pay him big money after this year either)

    Before I pulled the trigger on any of those deals, I'd be calling Orlando about the #1 .... offering some combination of 3, Wood, Tate & 17. Taking Chet .... I think he's a game changer on both ends.

    I wouldn't be trading down in any event - If my guy is there I'm taking him and not getting cute.
     
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  8. groovemachine

    groovemachine Member

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    The problem with Wood’s value is he’s a FA after next season, so any team trading for him might be getting a one year rental. It’s hard to give up a lottery pick for a rental, particularly one who’s an almost all star and shown little to no interest in defense.

    What team would think Wood is the difference to becoming a contender, particularly when his team has been a bottom feeder for his tenure in Houston. I’d package Wood and 17 to move up to 13 if that’s the best deal available.



     
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  9. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Member

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    Re Wood:

    -Start everything off first by asking yourself what team does Wood add value to?? Think of the Rockets in that brief stint before Harden asked out. Wood added value because of the loss of Capela with no backup of other viable option to be a rolling partner with Harden.

    -Now think of how many teams you came up with.

    -Now look at what assets that team has. What’s that assets value in relation to urgency of need for basketball Value Wood brings that a replacement player couldn’t provide consistently.

    What left?

    When I put myself in the shoes of every GM in the league for every team, I see easily why Wood is such a tough player to get a good asset for in trade. Stop evaluating players based on perceived talent to value. Instead take a step back and instead apply basic supply and demand principles.

    I think Wood will be here the entire season unless Stone is willing to accept a 2nd round or late first rd pick. It’s nothing against Wood or his talents. It’s simple supply and demand. In this league what he does would be considered a luxury spend. Not a necessity.
     
    #429 dobro1229, Jun 6, 2022
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2022
  10. saleem

    saleem Member

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    An excellent post.
     
  11. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    Sure, I don't disagree with your bottom line, if that's the best deal out there, I take it too.

    But that's not where I'm starting the conversation, I'm asking for the moon and the stars if I can get it, we can work our way down from there.
    It's as if the vast majority here have conceded that Wood has little to no value and I just don't buy that. He's worth more than moving from 17 to 13.
    The offensive numbers are too good and defensively he's competent as a switch defender on guards and wings - he can stay in front of them.
    If you are asking him to be a rim protector that's a failure .... he's neither capable nor willing.

    Most here only look at his negatives and ignore his positive attributes .... we just don't like him (myself included).

    The stats suggest he's a unicorn. One of 4 players in the league to average 10+ boards and shoot 37% or more from 3 and one of only three that has done that in consecutive years. What team "good" wouldn't think he could help them over the top?

    As for being a bottom feeder team .... this roster was devoid of talent aside from Wood top to bottom in year one and played 5 rookies (Geen, Christopher, Sengun, Garuba & Nix) and 2 second year players (Tate & KMJ) in year two. It was expected they would be terrible ....

    We've got 3 or 4 teams between 4 &10 who are looking for "Win Now Pieces", two of those teams are in desperation mode to keep their stars .... Everyone says we'll get outbid but no one has named a single player who's clearly better than CW who's available for one of those picks. (available is the key here).

    As for being a rental, that's easily solved by extending him and would likely be part of any such trade.


    Sure, if the best you can do is 13 for Wood and 17 .... by all means pull the trigger but I believe he has more value around the league than 4 spots in the middle of the draft.
     
  12. vator

    vator Member

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  13. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Member

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    I get that you think that he’s that good and worth that much but obviously 29 GM’s in the league are likely to disagree with you. So I think you gotta think about how fans like myself are thinking within that context.

    I also would challenge you a bit respectfully on Wood being a unicorn. GM’s in the past have “good player on bad team” references like Monta Ellis, Kevin Martin, or even Kevin Love on the Wolves etc. It’s my opinion that GM’s will evaluate that Wood getting the usage he got last year should have led to much much more in terms of wins especially given how flat the league was this season.

    If I’m a GM my best case reference is the short span at the beginning to All Star break/injury of the 19-20 season. I think that’s a good example of a team seeing where he could help them. How many of those type of teams have a need like that this next season? I don’t see many but maybe you do.
     
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  14. sydmill

    sydmill Member

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    I never got wrapped up in the Christian Wood as unicorn movement. However, it is hard not to acknowledge that over the span of 2 seasons (109 games played at 30+ minutes per night) Wood has been an efficient (52% fg & 38% 3pt) 19/10 player. Those dont grow on trees. Admittedly, his stats are inflated having played on the worst team in the league. BUT, you could argue that he would be getting better shots as a 2nd or 3rd option than the ones he got here (which he hit at a good clip already). If I am Charlotte or Portland I am very intrigued by pairing Wood with either Ball or Lillard in the two man game. Obviously you would want to do your due diligence to check on his attitude in going from batman on a bad team to Robin on a better one but I think you view that as a good deal for a mid-first and matching salaries.

    Houston out: Wood, Mathews, Tate and pick #17
    Houston in: Plumlee, Walker, pick #13 and Dallas' 2023 first round pick

    Charlotte out: Plumlee, Washington, pick #13
    Charlotte in: Wood, Mathews and pick #11

    NYK out: Walker, pick #11 and Dallas' 2023 first round pick
    NYK in: Washington, Tate and pick #17
     
  15. sydmill

    sydmill Member

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    From Houston's perspective they open up an extra roster spot or 2 with this deal. I personally would probably keep both Walker and Plumlee around as vet mentors but you could cut one or both (Plumlee's deal is nonguaranteed anyway). Regardless they expire at the end of next season meaning they along with Wall and EG would be open cap space for the rebuild. So there is value in that alone. But the Rockets would also be moving up to where I believe the back end of tier 2 prospect will be available. My target is Eason but there might be other too (Sochan? A sliding Griffin?). Finally, the Dallas pick is another piece to hopefully sweeten a move up in the draft next season. A mid to late lottery pick and 2 low firsts might get the Rockets near the top five next season to add to what will hopefully be a competitive-but-ultimately-losing team next season.

    Charlotte makes out like bandits here IMHO. For the price of Plumlee (JAG) and Washington (a guy they likely let walk if they dont deal by the deadline) the Bobcats move UP in the draft (Jalen Duren/Mark Williams anyone?) AND acquire a dynamic piece (Wood) for Lamelo Ball. And Mathews is on a choice deal for a 3 and D wing. I think they rush to agree to this deal.

    New York might have some pause. They probably would like to keep their powder dry for a Donovan Mitchell deal but pulling the trigger here nets them a quality bench (Tate and Washington added to Rose and Noel) at a reasonable cost. They move down where they select Tyty Washington who is someone I think they are already eyeing at 11 honestly. I think their offer to Utah is likely to be centered mostly around players anyway (Barrett+Quickley+Reddiish+Toppin for Mitchell?). They would still have their own picks (and #17 if needed) to sweeten that package.
     
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  16. dobro1229

    dobro1229 Member

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    Yeah as I mentioned it's that time period from November to February of the 19-20 season that really would give a GM doing their homework their best case scenario for him translating well to a 3rd fiddle but productive player. You are just relying on GM's around the league to have been watching as much Rockets basketball and you or I do. His stats this last year are... well... not going to pair well with whatever formula is used to show "Good player on bad team" actually impacting winning, and that translating to another team in a valuable way.

    I like the spirit of your scenario, but I would say that given history of draft night trades, they do seem to be much less complicated than a trade in Dec to Feb. A three team deal on draft night could be tricky to say the least, but I like the rationale here. The only question to ask yourself though if you are the GM of the Hornets is whether or not you think LeMelo Ball is going to have the kind of gravitas to have players like Wood fall in line like Harden did with the Rockets??

    If I was Stone I would be trying to get creative like this, but man... I think he's going to be tough to move but that's just my dumb opinion.
     
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  17. groovemachine

    groovemachine Member

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    You make a good argument, I hope Stone and crew make a similar pitch. This is one of those situations where I hope I am wrong and you are right. Would moving up to the top 10 be worth also taking back a bad contract? That could be a sticking point in the negotiations.


     
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  18. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    That's where I think you guys are wrong on his value .....


    We're talking about a guy who shoots 39% from three and grabs 10 boards a game. These skills translate and it could easily be argued that he would only get better shots as a second fiddle than he did here in an offense most complain about ....

    What team couldn't he help ..... are you telling me a guy who shoots almost 40% from deep and grabs 10 rebounds a game theoretically can't help the vast majority of teams ?


    I really don't buy him being a unicorn either .... what I do buy is that those numbers speak for themselves.

    One of five who posted them in 21
    One of four who posted them in 22
    One of three who posted them in both.

    We just don't like his attitude, coming in day one talking about a max contract, refusing to enter a game down 30 .... or being lackadaisical on defense on a 20 win team. We see him every night and don't like his attitude / demeanor ... we've got some recency bias & nitpick every detail.
    These other GM's are thinking this guy shoots 39% from 3 and can put the ball on the floor and drive against close outs and rebounds at an above average clip - this guy can help my team.

    I think Wood is the entry point for any of these potential lottery picks that are rumored to be available from 4-10 .... even if you have to add #17 & Tate or next years Milwaukee pick with some protections. That's quite a bit of capital .... it could be argued as an overpay.

    Its highly unlikely that any of those players drafted in that 4-10 range ever have single season of 19/10/38 over the course of their collective careers.

    My offers would be something along the lines of the following:

    #4 Wood, Tate, #17 & Milwaukee 23 pick top 5 protected.

    #7 Wood, Tate #17. (Portland can take Wood into cap space sending back no salary and they are desperate!)

    #10 Wood #17.

    #13 Wood.


    (Luca was 5 swapped for 3 and a top 5 protected pick the following year)
     
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  19. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    This is a very good point and one that would definitely have to be considered with any potential salary matching return.
    That's one reason I really like Portland as a trade partner as they can take Wood into cap space sending no salary back.

    Next offseason is a pivotal one for the Rockets with Wall, EG, Wood, KPJ & Tate all expiring leaving them with ZERO guaranteed dollars going into the 24 season as everyone under contract is on a team option or non-guaranteed. (Houston Rockets 2023-24 Salary Cap Table | Spotrac) They could literally walk away from the entire roster if they wanted to do so.
    24 is very similar .... Houston Rockets 2024-25 Salary Cap Table | Spotrac

    The list of FA's is rather poor in those seasons - old dudes I don't want eating up cap space.

    2023 NBA Free Agents Tracker | Spotrac

    2024 NBA Free Agents Tracker | Spotrac

    By the way, Kings X plays at warehouse live on October 29.
     
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  20. sydmill

    sydmill Member

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    All tru
    I agree with these opinions
     

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