Very interesting and it does confirm the eye test with Chet. Chet’s offensive rating was very high too iirc. I wonder how much Mark Williams helped Paolo with this stat and conversely how much DPOY Walker Kessler helped Jabari. This list actually has me encouraged about Paolo as he was better than Agbaji and Liddell. Also worth noting Banchero’s teammates Moore, Keels and Griffin were rated lower and I really didn’t think that would have been the case watching that team play. I always had a suspicion Banchero’s Drtg might have been helped by those teammates but looks like the opposite might be true. Ivy is about where I thought he’d be. Disappointed in Jalen Williams. Still, a lot of drtg has to do with what’s around other players and this just highlights the importance of Mark Williams and Walker Kessler. The fact Chet’s teammate Timme didn’t even make this list speaks to just how much he elevated his squad on defense single-handedly. To be the clear #1 and your teammates are that significantly worse without you on defense is actually insane. Also we need Tari Eason like yesterday.
If I’m the Magic I just spent a top 5 pick in Suggs and I’m not going to write him off after one year plagued by injury. Also Cole looked like a future star for stretches and Fultz was awesome the year before. It’s a lot of investment in those guys and I’d try to get the ball in their hands as much as possible and give them the best chance for success. All 3 of those guys need shooting to succeed and Jabari is the best at that without taking the ball out of those guy’s hands. WCJ emergence would allow for those guys to play better out of pick and roll with improved spacing. I would never compare Banchero to Jabari on defense because it’s instantly a losing argument. Jabari is the better defensive player hands down and I don’t really see that changing. Franz looks like he can potentially be that playmaking forward in time. To add to that, I think Chuma’s best trait imo is his ability to make plays at his size as well as his steal rate. He’s redundant with Paolo in terms of his upside as a playmaker. If you get Franz -Jabari it could be the next Hedo - Rashard Lewis. If they retain Isaac, in time that could be the best shooting and switchable defensive front court in the entire league. Allowing Cole and Suggs to penetrate and make plays. It’s definitely enticing. A lot of these GMs have tremendous pressure to get it right and Jabari would be the safest pick by far. It doesn’t seem like it means much but we’ve seen GMs draft for security many times in the past so it’s definitely a thing. I think of the three teams the pressure is on Orlando the most to start winning and Jabari is the best bet to significantly help a team right out of the gate + he has high upside. Paolo and Chet will need more time imo. The Thunder I’m actually worried about but if Chet falls to us I’ll be thrilled all the same.
Paragraphs. How do they work again? None of you people are Faulkner so break those posts up to make them readable.
Jabari Smith was a top 6 high school recruit, the highest rated ever for Auburn, and ESPN/Jonathan Givony started him at #4 on the big board during the first weekend of the college season. He certainly didn't just come out of nowhere. If anything, it wasn't that Jabari had a season that blew everyone away, but rather that Paolo and Chet, who both had big leads going into the year, didn't have a Zion Williamson/Cade Cunningham-level season in college to distinguish themselves, and opened themselves up to questions and nitpicking.
Yet they both put up better and more efficient stats than Jabari and their teams went much further in the tournament. Explain how he closed the gap with tangible evidence. Someone brought up Cade earlier in this thread talking about how he still went #1 despite being disappointing in college. This was directly in response to Banchero’s NCAA playoff run. You guys need to pick a side of an argument and stick to it lol can’t be both ways. Cade averaged like 3 ast a game and got bounced early and people were certain they could run an offense through him because of his entire body of work including high school. Givony ranking Jabari #4 to start the year the college year is great. How did he move from #4-#1 by putting up worse stats than the people in front of him and disappearing in the most important moments where those other players excelled? Explain that? Try no to bring speculation into it. What is the criteria here?
For me personally, Cade was far from a disappointment in college. Cade was recognized as a consensus First Team All-American as a true freshman. That's being evaluated by college sports writers who are unconcerned with future potential, and should theoretically be biased towards upperclassmen who produce on the court. Same with RJ Barrett and Zion in 2019, Ayton, Bagley and Trae Young in 2018, and Ben Simmons back in 2016. When a freshman is on the first team, it's a pretty big deal, because it means massive production and value with tons of potential. You'd have to go back to 2015, where Karl-Anthony Towns was only a 2nd-teamer, to not have a first team freshman be picked #1 overall. Even then, D'Angelo Russell and Jahlil Okafor, who both made the first team as freshmen, still went #2 and #3. As far as I can tell, no freshman who has been a consensus first team All-American has been drafted outside of the top 5 except for Jared Sullinger, who stayed in school for an additional year. Paolo, Chet, and Jabari all made the second team, and Jabari was actually named to more All-American teams than Chet or Paolo. Again, this is a production-based award, and in the eyes of the media, Jabari had better stats than both guys this year on the court in terms of value to his team. The fact that none of these guys dominated college ball like we have seen big time prospects so in the past is one of the reasons why there isn't really a consensus #1 this year. All three guys have arguments to be there, and none of them was clear cut better than the other on the court, so it comes down to projection, and how you speculate they will develop in the future.
I understand that Jabari was one of the best 3 point shooters in a very long time. .430 from three on 5 and a half attempts a game at 6'10 is pretty absurd. If he can be a defensive stalwart and shoot like that, he will be an extremely valuable piece. The concerns I have is that he basically scores his points exclusively from 3. Close to half his overall attempts are 3 pointers. His shooting percentage plummets once you get inside the arc and he seems allergic to scoring in the paint (at this point.) If he cannot playmake for others or reliably create his own shot and he's not a slasher or finisher, he seems incredibly one dimensional on offense even if his greatest offensive strength is the most needed in the NBA. Players like that scare me because I still have PTSD from the Rockets Warriors series. Perhaps if we had a shooter on the team of Jabari's caliber we would have hit one of those shots. His defense would have certainly helped and if I had to choose one player to put on that team to beat the Warriors it would be Jabari without question. However we know first hand how it goes when you live and die by the 3. Jabari knows this first hand as well because shooting 3/16 in the biggest game of his career killed them. If he had a more diversified ability on offense, I'd be willing to bet they'd have made the sweet 16. In my opinion, efficiency is important and both Chet and Paolo were much more efficient. I will cut Jabari some slack there because of the high volume of 3's he took (which he was fantastic at). That tends to kill an overall shooting percentage. I can understand though in the NBA valuing the percentage of that one skill alone and how that could project into a great player. Until he can efficiently score in the midrange(I think he can do this) or score close to the rim its going to scare me. NBA defenses are really good and if they key on Jabari and he's getting run off the three point line, I need to feel comfortable with him scoring efficiently or making the right read. We can talk about the importance of playmaking in a number one pick, especially finding players that can be an engine to your offense but at the end of the day plenty of stars in this league are limited in this capacity. (Thats why to me at least ,someone like Banchero can be very special because there are numerous dimensions to his offensive game. I feel it is worth the reach.) I also think shooting is a skill that many players develop over time. I trust Banchero's jumper and the fact that he shot over 35% on catch and shoot and I like that Chet came close to being a 40% 3 point shooter. Whether they become elite shooters like Jabari is improbable but nevertheless it is easier done than some of the other skills we are talking about. I think Chet has the potential to anchor a defense and with regards to Paolo I feel like he has some tools and yea there are some numbers in his favor here or there but I don't want to speculate that he's going to be this great defender all of a sudden. I feel like one aspect of Jabari's game that doesn't get enough love is his rebounding and he should have the edge on Banchero there I would think. All of these guys have flaws and are great in their own ways. As good as Jabari is at what he does well, what he doesn't do scares me the most. Those things are really hard to learn at the highest level and he's going to need to diversify his offense to be worthy of the pick imo. I'm really not trying to rip the guy anymore. Just trying to make sense of it all. He's definitely got the highest floor and outside of a catastrophic injury, I don't think there is even a chance he's a bust. With Banchero's skillset and role, he better be the real deal or you just got burned. That is extremely risky and hard to judge but I'm going with what I see both in the track record and on the floor. I'd rather swing for the fences with Paolo or Chet but I do understand wanting Jabari and how valuable his elite 3 point shot and defense could be.
Who do the Magic go to when they need to score? Who gets them out of a slump? If you ask me they don’t have anybody like that on their roster (and Suggs was always said to be more of a Rondo or Paul type of player so even if he lived up to his potential he probably is not that guy). If Jabari can develope into that guy he is the #1 pick no questions asked. But there is still a big question mark. He also might just be a 3&D player that you can neutralize on offense by guarding him closely. Now Paolo has been that player his whole life. Problem with him is how high is his ceiling. if the Magic draft for fit I believe Paolo is the way better fit - and Sharpe might be the best fit overall (so trading back could also be enticing for them). But I guess with the #1 pick you draft for potential and ignore fit. And then again I think you can make an argument for all 3… for me they are almost interchangeable right now. So I am very happy we have the 3d and not the 4th pick…
that’s an interesting observation - first/second team freshman. Obviously it makes some sense. Still, like tiering … within that group it probably doesn’t make a ton of difference. EG in a vacuum knowing nothing about any of the players if you have a bunc my of first/second team guys and randomly picked one would you be better off taking a first team guy? Where was Ant, Ja, Tatum, etc? plus all 3 guys this year were second team. I also think all 3 guys were impacted by team around them a bit. I could come close to naming a single other player on OkState last year or LSU. Whereas Duke has like 6 potential legit nba players, Auburn had Kessler and guards that tended to think they were the **** way more than they should have (although that COULD also be because Jabari couldn’t dribble really) and Gonzaga was so laser focused on Timme for some reason. it should surprise no one that Cade had the highest college usage between him and these 3. Jabari was actually second albeit barely above Paolo. Chet was far behind - again surprising no one. Cade and Paolo have eerily similar basic stats and advanced stats. Cade was a decently better 3 point shooter. Paolo imo has slight edge in scoring (per possession) and assist:turnover %s but again VERY similar.
That’s extreme wishful thinking. It’s not a given that Paolo can play the wing in the NBA And he will probably be about the same passer level
Cole Anthony is looking like that dude. His stats were bad after he got injured but he was absolutely playing at a star level earlier in the season. Last season he was getting his feet wet and coming off a significant injury that hurt his draft stock quite a bit. I wouldn't be surprised if he's averaging 20 and 8 for an entire season before long. I can see that easily. He could be better than that and I think his efficiency improves especially if they have a floor spacer like Jabari. He was constantly facing traps and double teams and floor spacing would go a long way in helping him get easier shots. I'm down with Cole Anthony and he's still super underrated. I also think regardless of how people feel about Suggs, he was injured a lot of last year and the Magic invested way too high of a pick to give up on putting him in the best position to succeed. Suggs is just a kid. A Suggs - Cole back court can be really nice in a few years time. Anyway to answer your question, Cole was the guy who the Magic went to when they absolutely needed a bucket and he was pretty clutch for them. I know his efficiency needs work but don't sleep on Cole! Here are two examples from just 1 season. Game winner against T Wolves - Game winner against Grizzlies If Orlando was better, Cole would be in more conversations as a future star. He's that good imo and we haven't seen him really get comfortable yet. He makes everyone around him better too. Look at the emergence of WCJ. Now look at his stats when Cole was out with injury. He was at one time a favorite for most improved player before his injuries. The Magic won 18 games with Cole and they won a whopping 4 games total without him. The magic had a -1.2 net rating with Cole on the floor. Orlando's overall net rating was -9.7. They had a league worst -22.1 net rating with Cole off the floor. The Magic had an offensive rating of 108 with Cole on the floor compared to 102 without him which is pretty significant. Everything the Magic have said indicates they feel Cole has the makings of a star and if you look at the flashes he showed last year and some of the stretches of games he had before getting injured it's easy to see why. He is hands down the leader of that team. I wouldn't write off Suggs so soon and I don't think the Magic are going to give up on their top 5 pick from last year that quickly. Franz and Okeke are both developing as playmaking forwards and that also could make Paolo a little more redundant. I doubt it but the point is, they have a lot more in place and more pressure to start winning games than the other teams in the top 3. With regards to Paolo - keep in mind he's 6'10 250. I'd say with a skill set like his at that size the sky is the limit. It is already extremely, extremely rare. Some of his traits could translate to the rarest skills in the NBA and for that reason alone his potential is higher than Jabari imo. Can you imagine the kind of problems he could cause if he's a willing passer and attacking downhill in an NBA pace and space system? He's 6'10 250 lets not overthink this.
Same passer level....as Jayson Tatum? Paolo is a natural passer/playmaker. Tatum is definitely not that. He would be this teams best playmaker the minute he gets drafted.
