He is going to be good offensively..... the question is HOW good, and that is in part going to rely on his shot selection. He took a lot of long 2's at Duke, that are not efficient shots, if he turns those into 3's, then he will be an efficient offensive player and a dangerous player on that side of the floor. He is very gifted offensively. Taking more 3's and hitting them will also open up the floor for his penetration and passing.
This is what a lot of people are failing to realize. You take the clearly better talent in the draft. HOWEVER, if you know a player you have on your team is very unlikely to fit AND you can deal him for a player you like as much and does fit, then it is smart to pursue that possible trade.
This is where you and I disagree. Jokic is not an "outlier" in this context -- rookie big man often start slow in many respects and rapidly improve. People say Sengun is a terrible rim protector -- Ayton was a terrible rim protector his rookie season. People say he's a poor 3 pt shooter -- Myles Turner was even worse shooting the 3 as a rookie. I mean, his best comp IMO is Sabonis, and Sengun was better than Sabonis as a rookie in virtually every category despite (1) starting far fewer games than Sabonis; and (2) being a year younger than Sabonis as a rookie.
Lol. Sorry, but I hear he's very popular. The sportos, the motorheads, geeks, sluts, bloods, wastoids, dweebies, dickheads - they all adore him. They think he's a righteous dude.
Jokic still has physical limitations defensively, and that is part of why he has not won a title - and he is an extreme outlier as a player. As for Ayton, he had the physical tools to be a rim protector, and he did not play for the Suns down the stretch in crucial games because of his limitations. Learning to improve as a shooter is different than becoming quicker and more athletic. I do not doubt that Sengun will improve as a shooter, that is a skill and not a physical limitation. I am okay with you comparing Sengun's upside (or reasonable upside) to Sabonis (who I like). In fact I like both Sabonis and Sengun, I even wanted the Rockets to draft Sengun. Having said that, even with all of the improvement in Sabonis' game.... you better have another post player next to him that can defend the rim, can switch and make up for his physical limitations..... if you don't have that, you aren't going to defend well or go really deep in the playoffs. Sabonis next to Adebayo? That works...... Sabonis next to JJJ or Robert Williams? That works.......... Sabonis next to Sengun? Nope. Why? Because Sabonis' weaknesses need to be covered.... just like Sengun's do..... and it is why Sengun didn't go at the top of the lottery.
I agree that long 2's/borderline 3's are not a great shot unless it goes in. What if I told you that 63% of Golden States shots vs the Mavs came from the mid range? During a long regular season 3 vs 2 argument holds more water then when the game condenses down in the postseason and well you have to make the playoffs first! Alot of the vision and projecting for all of these guys is how will they play when the game is on the line? What is in their bag to get the job done and help their team move on? I dont think its a slight at all for Paolo to be mid range heavy in his arsenal. Jalen and KPJ will thrive shooting 3's with Paolo handling the ball in spurts. If Banchero can get to 40% 3 point shooting he could very well be an All NBA type guy.
Ideally you have a few guys that are CAPABLE of hitting long 2's but don't shoot them unless they have to.... that is usually the case with elite shooters like Curry, Poole and Thompson. The Rockets were rolling out guys that were "okay" or "good enough" as natural shooters. No, the fact that Banchero took as many long 2's as he took last year isn't a negative, it gives optimism that he has areas to become a better player. They will work on making him more efficient. If Banchero gets to 40% on a high volume of 3's he will be an ALL NBA type guy unless he just gives no effort on defense, and I don't think that is going to happen (him giving no effort).
Given the choice between trading Banchero or Sengun, I pick Banchero and try to trade Sengun and #17 to move up for Murray, Season/Daniels.
For all of us Sengun Stans (including myself) we see, as a best case scenario, that Alperen becomes a poor man's Jokic. If we see what success/failure the Nuggets have had in building a championship-contending team around Jokic, there are two things that have defined how well or poor the team finishes: health and defense. When they have a healthy team (with MPJ and Murray healthy), that Denver team is as dangerous as any conference finalists in the past 2-3 years. When they have defense, they become a top 2-3 team easily. As far as health, there's no way to predict that so we can't really game plan for that outside of just avoiding players with major injury issues/history. As far as defense, I think that's where @Nook and others have shared their skepticism because you really need a partner in the front court with Sengun to cover what he can't do. That was pretty much what the Nuggets had a few years ago when they had the luxury of putting Jerami Grant and Paul Millsap next to Jokic. Grant left via free agency and Millsap was no longer a reliable heavy minutes player so they went and took a gamble in bringing in Aaron Gordon, who isn't a bad defender but not really a stopper either. With Sengun and Banchero...it can work but I think you're going to need at least above average defense from both players, in addition to superb defense out of whoever you have at the 3/SF spot. I think Sengun can be an above average defender and I can't say Banchero won't/can't get there....if we take Banchero at 3 I would love to see Stone trade up to get a solid 3&D prospect in this year's draft to be our future 3. We have some possibilities on the roster already with KPJ, Martin, Tate, and maybe JC but I'd like a taller/stronger guy at that position movin forward.
You have to consider that Scooter was THE BEST catch and shoot 3 point shooter in the entire NBA last season. Jalen is somewhat streaky, but his range is unquestioned and he finished the year on an absolute tear from behind the arc. That is where we should hope and expect the majority of our 3 point shooting to come from when Paolo is operating as the point forward. Ideally you can find another rim protector that can shoot from deep if Banchero is able to play the 3 and you've moved on from Gordon and Wood who were two of the better outside shooters on the team last year and replaced them with similar shooters. I also pray that Sengun is working on his outside shot because he will also benefit from open looks that a guy like Paolo will provide with his gravity and movement with the ball. I think Paolo will be fine on defense. He's already shed some weight and looks great.
Defensively I get a lot of RJ Barrett vibes/potential from Paolo....which, at best, is a passable/average defender. This is from just looking at what data is available out there for both players (e.g. DBPM, DWS/40, etc.). Being average isn't the end of the world because that's one less person the opposing teams would try and hunt down in PnR situations.
Sure! I could see that. Maybe a 'super sized' RJ Barret? Logging on today and seeing the new physique that Paolo has been working on was such a fresh development that it alters EVERYTHING in what I was thinking about building this team. If Paolo can slot in as a super sized wing you can still play Sengun at 4 and STILL find a rim protector (preferably with a 3 point shot) and check off all the boxes. With "big" Paolo it was almost a foregone conclusion that he would be a 4/5 and the questions about cohesion with Sengun became valid (hasty maybe, but valid nonetheless) and would have required a Tari Eason type of super defender next to them. Paolo played "good" in space last season, so losing weight is only going to help him there and in his ability to recover at the rim with that 41" vert.
This whole talk of defense suffers from recency bias. Take the Warriors. With just Curry, they were 29th and 26th in defensive rating. The year Klay gets there, they hit 27 and then make a sizable jump to 14 as Bogut and Draymond arrive. Another year and the addition of Iggy gets them to 6th. The next three seasons they go 1, 5, and 2 with the last one being the year Durant arrived. After that, they go 11 and 13 as they realize they can coast a bit in the regular season, still outscore everyone, and turn it on for the playoffs as seasoned teams are wont to do. Durant then leaves and they finally get hit with injuries, dropping them down to 26. Last year they clawed back up to 5 and this year they are number 1 again. The point is they found their shooters, kept the core together, and learned team defense which allowed them to climb up the rankings and put the clamps on when it mattered. The team aspect to defense is critical, as is the scheme and the coaching. A team of 5 exceptional individual defenders will still get picked apart if they don't understand team defense. Of course, it's great if you have a shooter like Klay who is also good at D. It helps even more if they are smart and understand team defense. As much as they emphasize D, Boston was #14 last year but they had their guys in place. Sometimes, it just takes some time for the right pieces to get there and the D to gel. As to the Rockets, I think you follow the GS pattern and get your scorers in place. You can then scheme and adjust the roster to build up your defense. GS had Curry, Klay, and Green but they don't beat James that year without Iggy's defense and Livingston's effort off the bench. So, that's a long-winded way of saying I'm good with Banchero and Sengun for now. They're both smart players. Let's see if they can figure it out and if the coaching staff can come up with a way to maximize both. At this point, we are not nearly good enough to look at things as either/or. We need a lot of "ands" right now.
It's also worth noting that in addition to Green and Sengun Stone went and drafted both JC and Garuba last year, both were more or less touted for their above average (and in Usman's case, elite) potential on defense. Maybe another year of playing time and getting acclimated to the NBA will get them to that level and we won't have too many holes to fill on the defensive end.
Great post. Stedd had an excellent take as well. Like so many of us, I’m hoping we move up from 17 and get one of the 3&D wings that currently might be just out of reach. Eason’s the guy I want, but he’s not the only possibility. Maybe we’ll get lucky and have one fall to us, but whatever we end up doing, I want to keep watching Sengun develop. That’s regardless of who we take at 3.
