I've loved Hand in the past, and wanted us to sign him in the 2020-21 offseason. However, I would proceed with caution. He imploded down the stretch last year for the Blue Jays after a solid start, leading to a DFA. This year? In 5 situations, he has 1 save, 4 holds and 0 blown saves. The ERA sits at 1.29. Sounds good, right? Look closer - 1.500 WHIP, and 3.56 FIP (almost thrice his ERA). He is a prime candidate for regression later this season. If he still looks good come the All Star Break, I'll check again. But for now, I'd stay away.
They clearly do. I said I get that. It doesn’t mean they are right though. Or it’s the best way to maximize wins. Just means it’s their preference. And I’ve said “I might well be wrong”. That doesn’t mean I can’t say it seems unlikely to me.
Based on positions of need and/or positions that can be upgraded, here is a quick list of some potential trade targets that I’d be calling about if I’m Click. I’ve separated into tiers based off of any combination of prospect cost/contract/potential demand and these players are on teams who could be potential “sellers” by the deadline. Tier 1A(extremely unlikely due to cost and demand) OF-Juan Soto Tier 1B(a little less unlikely but would require a haul) OF-Bryan Reynolds OF-Cedric Mullins C- Salvador Perez Tier 2(upgrades without “breaking the bank”) 1B- Josh Bell (final year of contract) 1B- CJ Cron (FA after 2023 season) C- Wilson Contreras (final year of contract) OF- Andrew Benentendi (final year of contract and he or Tucker would have to play CF, which is unlikely) I’ve been seeing comments about the Astros FO, coaching staff, and pitching staff loving Maldonado- which for all intents and purposes seems to be true. But something has gotta give. We’ve been essentially getting nothing out of the Catcher spot offensively. We’re going to need bats to come through in the playoffs to win some games. If they aren’t willing to budge off Maldonado then you have to start looking for an offensive upgrade from Yuli.
Give me any of the first 3 guys in tier two for any prospects other than Whitley, Brown, Leon or Lee and I’m pretty happy. I don’t want to lose any of those guys unless it’s for a tier one guy. I’d trade Garcia, Javier, Leon and some other prospect not named Brown, Whitley or Lee. If I was Washington I’d do that deal in a vacuum but I’m not saying that’s the best offer they will get, just one that I could see surplus value matching up over life of the contracts. I love Javier and I like Garcia a lot, that would sting for me to do. This would be predicated upon Lance being ready to go. That still gives you a four man rotation in the playoffs of JV, LMJ, Framber and the best of Brown, Urquidy, Odo and maybe Whitley as a wild card. that would mean you have to sign JV to an extension next year and/or Brown or Whitley needs to become a TOR guy at least equivalent to LMJ. Would love Bell for a Perez type. Would be absolutely ecstatic for Contreras. Adding them both would make me practically orgasmic and bring to mind the 2019 team which I had always assumed would be the best Astros team I ever saw. But this playoff roster would be better imo: JV, LMJ, Framber, Brown, Urquidy, Odo, Presley, Montero, Nerris, Stanek, Abreu (2 inning only), Maton, Taylor Contreras, Maldonado, Yordan, Bell, Altuve, Peña, Bregman, Yuli, Soto, Tucker, Brantley, Meyers, Siri. Brantley and Meyers platoon. Tucker plays CF when Brantley plays LF with Siri as PR and/or Of defense to play CF and move Tucker back to right close and late. When it’s a left handed pitcher you go Soto/Meyers/Tucker. That team is perfect. Then, over the off-season you say bye to Brantley, Castro, Montero and Diaz, sign Gurriel for cheap to be your utility guy, teach Yordong and/or Chaz to play 1B and resign JV. Your roster becomes: JV-35 LMJ-17 Framber-10 Urquidy- 1 Brown-1 65- starting rotation Presley, Nerris, Stanek, Whitley, Bielak, Abreu, Taylor, Maton- 35- 100 million pitchers. Lee-1 Maldy-5 Yordon-8 Altuve-28 Peña-1 Bregman- 24 Gurriel- 5 Chaz-1 Tucker-8 Meyers-1 Soto-25 Duhon-1 Siri- 1 108 for position players. Total payroll of 208 for Luxury tax purposes, with taxes and bennies that would slide in right under the tax line. that team should be favored to win 110 games. I have zero belief that Click would have any interest in doing any of those things. That team could still be kept together barely into the tax for 2024. You’d have the best Astros team ever headed into the playoffs in 2022 and then you’d have 2023 and 2024 on par with 2019 for best teams other than 2022 ever that should be 110 win type rolling ball of butcher knives. Then, you’d basically be looking at 2024 with Brown, Whitley, Peña, Lee and Meyers needing to be 5 war type players making nothing otherwise you should be looking to trade Yordon and Tucker and LMJ because you’d be looking at them being in their walk years and not good enough to do anything and not worth/making sense to extend. So if those 4 guys are cheap and young you’d have a **** load of money to sign fill out your roster and a bunch of holes to plug. There would be worse ways to start a rebuild if Brown, Whitley and Lee don’t pan than trading LMJ, Tucker and Yordon in their walk years and Peña with 3 years of arbitration left. Those guys should fetch what a couple 60 value prospects a 55, 2 or 3 50 value prospects and a couple guys you like as throw in lotto tickets? That’s not the worst downside imaginable for the end of a decade plus run as the best/second best team in baseball (****ing dodgers). that would be my swing for the fences trades this year.
Rhys Hoskins (1B) is someone we should consider trading for. He's a buy-low candidate after 5 straight years of OPS above .800. Good power. The Phillies are reeling and need to trade hitting for other needs. They have a very poor farm system as well.
I would only make a deal for a C or CF rental with low prospect cost. We cannot gut our minor league depth. Yuli is in his final year, just ride it out with him.
Nelson Cruz hit .328 with an .838 OPS in May. Maybe it's time to trade for him, platoon him with Brantley ( Alvarez in LF vs LHP) and stick him into the lineup between Alvarez and Tucker in thre lineup. He would be very cheap, provide RH power and veteran presence would mix very well on this team. Vs LHP Altuve Bregman Alvarez Cruz Tucker Gurriel Pena Meyers/McCormick/Siri Maldy Vs RH no changes.
i'm still going with haniger as my cheap OF upgrade target with massive upside potential. prob out till mid-july and an impending FA. he will cost nothing
by no means saying they should replace yuli for remainder of season (i still believe he will get back to productivity), but "just riding it out" with anybody and not looking for improvements in a championship-contending year makes no sense. the goal is to win rings.
I’ve been wanting to squire him at the deadline for like 5 years. I have to think he would literally cost almost nothing.
CF rental market is trash. Mets aren't moving Nimmo obviously. Kike Hernandez could make sense as a utility guy but McCormick is hitting better than him, and as bad as Boston was early they are only 4 games out of a Wild Card. Shogo Akiyama (35) Jackie Bradley Jr. (33) Lorenzo Cain (37) Delino DeShields (30) Billy Hamilton (32) Kiké Hernandez (31) Odubel Herrera (31) Travis Jankowski (32) Kevin Kiermaier (33) – $13MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout Jake Marisnick (32) Tyler Naquin (32) Brandon Nimmo (30) Kevin Pillar (34) So unless the Astros want to pony up for a CFer with multiple years of control or move Tucker to CF and bring in a corner outfielder like Benintendi or Haniger I don't see a move in CF. I think they ride with Meyers when he gets back.
I want to trade for Trey Mancini. He's having a good season, and is controlled through next year. He can play 1B as well as some corner OF. Great peripherals too. If you're concerned about the apparent drop in power, remember that the Orioles moved back the once short porch in left field by about 20 feet, and also made the wall 6 feet higher. He would rake at MMP and get a lot of Crawford Box homers. Astros get: 1B/LF Trey Mancini Orioles get: IF Joe Perez RHP Peter Solomon 2B Enmanuel Valdez Who says no? Is this too little, too much, or about right?
I like this one, gives insurance on a Yuli rebound, and if Yuli gets it going he can get corner OF and DH at bats. Would be a good add
I have asked Goldstein about the Astros opinion on catching and his personal opinion and they are largely the same. They believe that commercial and even proprietary metrics that measure defense for catchers are inadequate. More importantly, they believe that a catchers ability to call a game and bond with pitchers is the biggest impact a catcher makes. Goldstein said that Maldy is to the Astros exceptional at working with pitchers. He is able to work very well with Hispanics that primarily speak Spanish and veterans like Verlander. Maldonado works with the pitching coaches and front office on strategy and game planning and is sophisticated with analytics. Maldy has Verlander praising him and others like Valdez and Pressly. If you were to point out Maldonado’s OPS to the Astros, they would snap back the Astros era is well under 3.00. Does that mean Contreras is not possible? No, the Astros have spoken to the Cubs before… but the Astros likely don’t think it’s as big a need as we do.
