Blocking is reversible. I will walk away from an argument when it become irrational. Rational differences of opinion are fine. That said, there are plenty of irrational arguments in this world today. When the unstoppable meets the immovable, neither wins and both declare VICTORY.
Click has to assess the team under ability to win now and also ability to win in the future. Several positions and areas of the team simply don't need to be thought about for either reason. 2B, 3B, SS, RF, DH, closer. Since spring training this area has gone from 4 to 6. That's a win for the team and Click. Catcher: this area is very close if not part of the above section. The only reason it's not is because Korey Lee has not played in the majors yet. ButvI do think the plan is bringing him up next year and not bringing in any other catchers before next season. 1B: the team thought this was good for 2022 but open for 2023. Every game Yuli doesn't snap out of his season long slump makes it more likely the team looks to improve. The team does not have any prospects that can step in and be a better option ( without time a more development/experience) so if they decide an upgrade is needed to win this year it is possible it could be a controllable player that also fixes this spot for 2023. Current options for 2023: J.J. Matijevic, Taylor Jones, resign Yuli. LF/CF: Brantley is still a very good player so no move is needed or likely but he struggles against LHP so an upgrade could be made for a big RH run producing bat. The 3 headed CF position currently could be improved and almost certainly 1-2 will need to be by next year. It would most likely be a short term rental because the team loves Meyers and Leon to pair with Tucker so at least until the trade deadline 2023 the OF should be set. Alvarez has become a good defensive OF but since he is already in the lineup putting him in LF does not improve the team. Bench: Castro, Diaz, Dubon, and Siri/McCormick are serviceable average as bench players. Dubon could be the only one left in 2023. I can see a move to improve it but it's the bench so not a priority since it's not really a weakness or major important area. Getting a bat at the trade deadline that moves Yuli or Brantley to a platoon could improve this. Too many possibilities for 2023 to even dig into it really. 1-3 starters: these are the guys who line up to start in the playoffs. For 2022 it's Verlander, Framber, and ( hopefully) McCullers. When they are healthy and "on" it's about as good as it gets. But age, experience, and health could change things. That's always the case with pitching though. I could see them bringing in an established top of the rotation arm and make this a 4some but it's not necessary to win. For 2023 I think it's 50/50 if Verlander is back. If not then one of the next level guys need to move up and a guy like Hunter Brown needs to move to the next area. 4-6 starters: these are the depth guys who take regular turns in the regular season to keep the top guys from getting over worked and hopefully they develop and are able to move up into that area. One of these guys will need to make a start or 2 in the playoffs ( more if there are injuries to top guys) so they need to be solid. For 2022 it's Garcia, Javier, Odorrizi, and Urquidy ( in that order to me). I see no way Odorrizi is on this team next year and someone could need to move up and replace Verlander. Hunter Brown looks ready to step into here but overall not likely to have the depth in 2023 that there is now. I don't see the team bringing in anyone here - what's the point? Bring in an ace or stick with what is here already. High leverage bullpen: Pressly, Neris, Montero, Stanek. I could not be happier with this group. Montero is a FA so one from next group will need to step up in 2023. Rest of bullpen: Maton, Abreu, Taylor, and Seth Martinez have been mostly very good. I could see a LHP upgrade for Taylor but as a whole this group is perfectly good for this role. For 2023 they will all return. 1 will need to move up to replace Montero but there are plenty of candidates to fill in here and the 13th pitcher is certainly not a player you actively go look for.
In the most recent power rankings at MLB.COM the Phillies, Nationals, and Marlins are all in the bottom half. With the Mets practically lapping the field in the NL East and those teams not even seriously competing for a wild card I could see them as trade partners.
Excellent analysis. I would point out that Alvarez at either LF or 1B opens up more alternatives for DH/Platoon possibilities. Something like Alvarez at 1B with Brantley and a power hitting RH bat platooning in LF/DH. It also strengthens the bench on days Dusty gives one a day off. Fantasy - Soto. Yordon. Soto, Brantley with Gurriel on the Bench. But I wouldn't give up the farm to do it.
Thanks Soto would be great but the cost would cripple the club. If the team had more top 100 prospects then maybe, but since so few of the top guys in the system are highly regarded then maybe. As for Alvarez to 1B that would be tremendous but the team doesn't seam to be considering it. It would be nice if they would play him there a couple times per week. In my opinion they should have been playing him there 10-15% of the time since his knees were confirmed healthy, especially since Dusty rests everyone a game here and there. Now that Yuli isn't hitting it makes even more sense. Especially since the team currently does not have a 1B for 2023 except J.J. Matijevic or Taylor Jones* I like both of these guys but not everyone is Jeremy Pena. It's much more likely that they will be successful in lesser roles or positions in 2023 and gradually move into everyday regulars.
Out: Siri, Solomon, Taylor In: Contreras, Chafin 2B Altuve LF Brantley 3B Bregman DH Alvarez C Contreras RF Tucker 1B Gurriel SS Pena CF Meyers Bench: Dubon, Maldy, Diaz, Castro Rotation: Verlander, McCullers, Valdez, Garcia, Odorizzi Bullpen: Javier, Abreu, Maton, Stanek, Chafin, Montero, Neris, Pressly Optioned: Urquidy, Whitley, Dubin, Bielak, Bermudez, James, Paredes, Mushinski, Blanco, Goodrum, McCormick, Matijevic, Jones
I like the idea of getting Contreras a lot But I do not think it is realistic that we would carry three catchers with only Dubon and Diaz as legit bench players Outside of an injury to one of our current catchers, a trade for Contreras means bye-bye to Castro
It makes a ton of sense to bring in Contreras but who ****ing knows how this org evaluates C. For all we know they could be perfectly happy with what they are getting from Maldy although they are surely disappointed in Castro this season.
But we do know and you are exactly right. Not only is this organization happy with Maldy and Castro, they consider Contreras a DOWNGRADE. This team has no motivation to improve the catcher position. They think it is perfect now and there is no better catcher in MLB so no possibility to improve it. Fans will be happier if they just accept this. There are other positions and players to discuss. Cheers.
Is it though? To my outside observation it appears that the Astros value defense and intangibles very much (more than others teams with similar levels of success).
The White Sox have been a huge disappointment. They are only .500 with a minus 49 run differential and just lost Tim Anderson to a groin injury ( no idea how severe) If they don't make up any ground in June they could decide to trade Jose Abreu ( who will be a free agent) before the deadline. I'm sure the Cuban connection would be welcome in the clubhouse. He would not be expensive as far as prospects go. The White Sox always want to compete so maybe a couple MLB ready AAA guys like Peter Solomon and David Hensley or MLB experienced guys like Josh James and Lewis Brinson that could help in 2023 fit. Worst case is a mid-level prospect like Brewer or Endersby and a lottery ticket. Lineup vs LHP Altuve 2b Bregman 3b Alvarez LF Abreu DH Tucker RF Gurriel 1b Pena SS Meyers CF Maldonado C Vs RHP Altuve 2b Brantley LF Bregman 3b Alvarez DH Abreu/Gurriel 1b - match up Tucker RF Pena SS Meyers CF Maldy C Always have Brantley, Abreu, or Gurriel on bench as PH option.
With the extra WC team in both leagues there's going to be more teams in the race come the trade deadline. This could result in teams wanting to hold on to certain players to make a push for the WC when in the past they'd be willing to trade the player away for prospects. Which may ultimately cut down on the number of available players to potentially trade for which also drives up the price to acquire the ones that are available.
I mean it is bizarre in this way: the idea is a 38 year old, who is pretty physically compromised, and l has no defensive stats that point to him being the best defensive catcher in the game, is so amazing at defense that they are fine with carrying a 450 ops offensively as a trade off. Is it possible? Sure. Just seems unlikely to me.
Hard to say. Chafin is on a $13M/2yr contract with an opt out after this season. He has never really been dominant and will likely have <$5M in surplus value at the deadline. He is 31 and his velocity is down but he has been very effective this year, and the market for lefty relievers will be thin. All that in mind, I don’t think he should be very expensive, something like a high upside 40 grade or low upside 45 grade prospect. In my example, I had them giving up Blake Taylor for him, as Taylor could be a solid low leverage lefty RP with some moderate upside for a few years for the Tigers, which I think would be a good/fair return for Chafin. But they might rather go for a lotto arm like Misael Tamarez or Julio Robaina instead. As for Contreras, he is a rental making ~$10M this year. He is having a career year at the plate and projects to have ~$20M in surplus value, but the actual price may be steeper than that because he is by far the best player available at his position. So coming up with ~$30M in surplus value means it will hurt a team with an average farm like Houston. In my example I had them going for Siri and Solomon. It’s been beaten to death in this thread but I think Siri has quite a bit of surplus value; if he’s a 1.5war/yr guy going forward (which would assume a big drop off from his mlb performance since last year), he probably has $20M+ in surplus value and should be a meaningful piece in any trade he is involved in. I’m assuming Chicago likes Siri and sees him as at least a fringe regular with upside for more, but they could think he’s a scrub like a lot of posters on this thread do. If they do like Siri, pairing him with a 2nd tier pitching prospect like Solomon or Dubin or Alex Santos probably gets this deal most of the way there. You could sub in McCormick for Siri and it could also work. But if Chicago demanded pure prospects, it would probably require a 3 prospect package from Houston’s 4-15 range; something like Forrest Whitley, Solomon, and Joe Perez.
