It scares me that so much of Jabari's future success is dependent on his elite three point shooting translating to the next level. College big men (6'10"+) three point shooting typically drops off in the NBA. If that holds true for him and he ends up being more like a 37% shooter, how special is he really? Chet and Paolo aren't nearly as reliant on any single skill and can be used in different ways depending on what translates and what doesn't.
. I'm not as high on Chet as I was before after going back and watching a good amount of his games. As you mentioned its troubling to see someone at his size not dominant in games vs top talent. I made the mistake of drafting for fit in regards of Sengun but given Paolo is the pick. Jalen and Paolo become Batman and Robin. I'd rather build a team around Paolo and Jalen then fill in the pieces. Considering the Harden debacle I'd say we did alright ending up with two big time cornerstone pieces so early. You brought up a great take which seems to go undermined which is Paolo's leadership. Eventually Paolo will become the Alpha dog and elevate our young core as he did with Duke. it isn't always easy for players of his caliber to fit into a intricate system such as Dukes, but Paolo flourished well under coach Kryzewski. After rewatching March Madness of the three jostling for the number one spot, Paolo was the guy who consistently played like a superstar and showed up in the big moments. I have injury concerns with Chet, looking at AD, KD, and Porzingis. it wouldn't surprise me if Chet a much skinnier super lanky guy has some sort of injury history later in his career. The optics leave a lot to desire and the potential is there but there's still a ton of question marks surrounding Chet's game and size. Out of all three candidates I'd say Jabari and Paolo are sure things while Chet has bust potential.
Absolutely! I’m playing PB5 at the 3 spot and signing or trading or drafting a real legit center. KPJ JG PB5 Sengun Bamba?/Mark Williams?
I never said three point shooting was his only skill. No one sniffing the top of the draft is a one-trick pony...but he sure as hell has fewer tricks than Chet and Paolo.
No but you didn’t mention defense in your analysis. How special is he really if he only shoots 37% from 3 (which is pretty great at 6’10”). What if he is 1st team defense and shoots 37% from 3 is he special then?
So you're just granting a guy 1st team defense in a hypothetical when he's a good, not great defender in college...
Depends which evaluation looked at. I’ve seen several, one on this board, that had him as one of the best defensive prospects in the last several decades. We are all projecting here. My point is that too many fans only look at one side of the ball when it comes to evaluating potential. Look at the Celtics and Heat and tell me that defense should not be weighed more equally. In todays NBA. Defensive wings are becoming the new must haves. Of course, all this doesn’t matter if we don’t get a coach that knows what he is doing on that side of the ball. I trust Stone to pick the right guy or guys to make this work. If he picks Paolo, I trust his judgement over mine.
Lol what? Klay is the only remotely close to 3&D guy on that list and no he's not a #1 pick I personally don't like to make purely "I think" based analysis. I'd rather use data where applicable. I don't know the data here, but it would surprise me if lots of college players that basically couldn't dribble in the halfcourt in college eventually become dynamic or even capable dribblers in the NBA. Was Kawhi Leonard a bad college ballhandler? No, definitely not. Was he average? Yes. Is he still average in the NBA? Yes. That average ballhandling is definitely good enough given everything else he does well. Conversely, do players come into the NBA and become better shooters? Sure, all the time. But the reality is players come into the nba, and some get way better, and some don't. That's why we have Giannis and Jokic type mvps. It's not really bad scouting or bad GM'ing... though within a tier, if you then chose one over the other (say chose Marcus Morris over Kawhi Leonard) it can then be bad GM'ing, but otherwise you dont often pick at the top of the draft guys that have a ton to get better on. Jabari vs. Paolo isn't a case of either player having LOTS of holes, but is a case of both players needing to improve in a few areas. But in any case, i think it the choice is Jabari it isn't because you think he'll get better at his weaknesses faster/easier... it would be because you'd think if neither player gets better at their weaknesses, you'd rather have Jabari. And I get that and am fine with it. I'd just personally rather go with the guy that I think more likely to improve on their weaknesses - sorry, Jabari had a whole season to show us any ability to playmake in the halfcourt or not constantly take tough as **** long 2s that he hit at a stupid bad 43% rate and failed, whereas Paolo at least had solid stretches of good shooting and good D
Chet's rim-protecting prowess + analytical profile and Jabari's elite skill + defensive versatility give them good cases for the top spot, but as far as being the best basketball prospect, Paolo takes the cake for me. Paolo might've played with a talented Duke team, but his situation wasn't ideal for consistently showing his offensive abilities. We definitely saw it in stretches (and it remains to be seen whether motor/cramping will be an issue), but overall Duke was more egalitarian and didn't always play together on O. I feel like most people can't assess prospects through the eye-test anymore, because there are so many biases involved, so they're forced to lean more heavily on stats, often without any context. Don't get me wrong, the eye-test is only a one part of the entire scouting process, but many these days overthink aspects of scouting while being unable to see when a potential Franchise talent is in front of their eyes. 2021: Eye-test had Cade as the best player, despite others like Mobley having better stats and measurables, and Green having more athleticism/excitement. I think Cade is still the guy here, more because of his intangible qualities. The consensus generally agreed going into Draft Day. 2020: Eye-test had Edwards as the best player, because you could see he had a rare mix of frame, athleticism and skill. There were Qs about whether he would put it all together, but he's clearly shown he can. LaMelo had more hype and Wiseman seemed to have less risk at the time (despite only playing 3 games in CBB). There was generally a 3-way argument between those as the top guy, but two seasons in, I'd go with Edwards moving forward (though Ball obviously has a case). 2019: Eye-test and analytics had Zion as the top guy, which is rare. AD might be the only other semi-recent example where a prospect was #1 in both. In retrospect, the health/weight concerns might've been more legit than we thought, but when playing, he's still a Franchise talent. Ja's availability likely gives him the edge for now if we're redrafting. 2018: Eye-test had Luka as the top guy, but Ayton fit the classic C prototype and had elite #s to back it up. Luka had strong numbers in Euroleague (rare for his age), but fell to 3 nonetheless, as Ayton and Bagley (who also put up big #s) got the edge. We've seen how this played out. 2017: Eye-test had Fultz as the top guy, and I still believe he could've been a big star if his shoulder/shot never got screwed up. Would he be better than Tatum today? That'd be difficult, but outside of being a non-shooter now, he's still an incredibly talented player. And as a creating guard, if he still had his 40% 3-ball like he did in CBB, his entire game would open up. Analytics generally favored Lonzo Ball, and did not favor guys like Tatum and Fox (both of whom were more talented than their numbers showed) entering the Draft.
^ This is why I have no problem with Jabari as the pick, if its that. My order currently is: Chet Paolo Jabari But I absolutely get the defensive potential of Jabari and if worst case he just hits open 3s and 2s and gets the occasional putback giving you 15 a game with that great defense, that's a win, even if not a franchise changing HOF talent. At the end of the day, I think all 3 guys can fit.
But he's never had an entire team of dieticians, trainers, and personal chefs either. You could be right, but I think his body will transform. I don't ever expect him to look like Dwight Howard but I do think he can build muscle and fill out more in the vein of Kevin Durant.
That’s a big negative. Kevin too short to play SF in today’s league. We need to draft two 6’8+ forwards on the draft
Lots of truths being spit in this post. Klay is pretty much the standard for a player like Jabari and even then isn't worth a #1 pick. He can't anchor an offense on his own. Finally someone brings up Jabari's god awful FG%. The kid made a living for himself taking some of the worst shots in the game and yet pundits seem to fawn over it. 43% overall FG% is really bad. But it makes sense when you watch his tape and how one dimensional his game is. His stance is super high and he seems to lack any confidence whatsoever in his handle. Thus he resorts to shooting these high difficulty shots. You can't make a living in the NBA like that. Went back and watched the game against Miami (which lets be honest if Pablo had a game like this he'd get skewered for it) and all of his warts were on full display. Miami just pressed him and he couldn't really do much about it. Asking Jabari to suddenly develop a handle in the NBA is like asking Jalen Duren to develop a 3 point shot.
yeah… I don’t really get it. Again he can absolutely be a top all star level player at his peak without a solid handle. But handle has got to be one of the harder things to develop… not just in the nba but in basketball in general. Watching my son grow up now and it’s clear some kids have nasty handles just naturally and some don’t. You can absolutely work on it and get better but you’re not tiering up a level in any relatively short time frame and certainly not if you’re also moving on to the best league in the world. I have a hard time of thinking of a single nba player who is a non-existent handle in college and at any point in the nba developed a good handle. Maybe average but not good or above average. I’m sure I’m missing pampers it’s just not obvious to me. which isnt to say other skills are easy to improve on… just handle has got to be one of the hardest.
