I bet it will be somebody like Jared Polis, Gretchen Whitmer or Amy Klobuchar. Kamala is underwater and, even though I think he's a really smart politician, Pete's sexuality is a turnoff among core Democratic blocs.
This data is from 2019, so take it for what it's worth, but: 51% of African Americans approve of same-sex marriage 44% of black protestants approve (vs. majorities of white mainline protestants and catholics). Add that to the number of other issues he faced with the demographic that saved Biden's campaign and you've got a candidate that might be more popular in a general election than he is in a more crowded primary field.
Yeah, Klobuchar wasn't great so that was probably a dumb call. Considering all that matters in the end is electoral college math, I'd lean Whitmer. She's still popular among a majority in a swing state, among other Rust Belt states, that control the path to 270. Polis is much more popular purple state governor and had a rational approach to late-stage COVID mitigation. Roy Cooper of North Carolina matches that profile even better. I wish all of this were a moot point, but Vice President Harris is a dud and there's no clear next-in-line candidate. I love the policy proposals of further-left candidates (I was a Warren voter in 2020 even though it was clear she would not win), but value a path to 270 above all else. The barbarians are at the gate and an unpopular 82-year-old incumbent and his even more unpopular vice president terrify me.
I don’t know much about Polis so I’ll need to do some research, but seems like some real slim pickings
https://thehill.com/news/campaign/3...-likely-to-win-party-nod-if-biden-doesnt-run/ Ranking the five Democrats most likely to win party nod if Biden doesn’t run excerpt: Vice President Harris Harris tops our rankings, as she would instantly be the leading contender to win the Democratic nomination for president if Biden decided to end his political career with one term. She has the visibility at the White House, and the name recognition, and could give Democrats another chance at breaking the vaunted glass ceiling by becoming the first woman to be elected president. But Harris is not a sure bet to win the nomination. She has been tripped up by a rash of negative headlines since she assumed the role of vice president and her poll numbers have taken a hit. A Los Angeles Times analysis of national polls this month showed Harris underwater with a 40 percent approval rating. “She has fallen short of expectations,” said one Democratic strategist. Should Biden decide not to run, “I don’t think she has a lock on the nomination and she’ll have some viable competitors” in 2024, the strategist added. Some Democrats point out that while her 2020 presidential campaign started strong, it petered out when she ran into fundraising trouble and was unsuccessful in communicating a message for why she was the best candidate in a crowded field. more at the link
Yes, it's a different shift as Dems usually shitcan failures but now their pipeline is weak. At least only 2 out of 5 are over 70? Amy and Pete are interesting but I'm not sure if they can carry the tent pole. Millennials and minorites don't like Pete for different reasons. He seems capable and I suppose he can continue to build off that Amy seems to have problems with city folk and her "moderate appeal" is tied to everyone's ignorance on her positions to those divisive urban/rural issues. She didn't really thread that needle last time but maybe she didn't have enough time and attention to? But what's her mandate to prevent another split ticket event of choosing her while crippling her Congressional support? Warren seems to have a one track message and I'm not sure her last dorky (but improving) performance gives anyone confidence about her growth connecting outside her base of voters. She's more a financial reform candidate but her recent tweets try to make her an economic one. I think that's been a bad shift as it exposes her ignorance on those issues and could be easily destroyed by a biz candidate like Trump through street cred and public confidence.
Honestly just hail-mary it and go with Michelle Obama at this point. You can bait lots of racist trash Pepe Frog memes online that you can then tut-tut at, and its the closest thing possible to a third Obama term, which is about the only thing that I can think of that would excite voters. "The Field" for Dems is painfully mediocre. Gotta find a wildcard if you want to do more than tread water. Any also-ran that you are familiar with from 2020 will be disappointing. Goes for Repubs, too. As problematic as he is, nobody but Trump actually excites any significant fraction of people that will vote Republican.
I love Warren but it's painfully clear after 2020 that voters are turned off by some of the surface elements of her persona. She seems to come off as too "school teacher"-ish and that seems to trigger bad memories for too many people. Or something. Voters always seem to react in the worst way possible to "her" as a person. She'd be so much better in an appointed "policy wonk" position, like Sec of Treasury than in something that requires voters to broadly "like" her.
