Well, it's interesting to see the narrative change. While I was skeptical of Banchero's defense, I'm not as worried now. I truly believe we're going to get a great player at #3 and make other moves that fortify our team. We have some assets that other teams can use to make their teams better in Wood and Gordon. Using one or both of them to move up from #17 makes too much sense. Love the banter in this thread. Is it me or do we all seem a bit more open this year versus last year?
Absolutely hate your losing mentality…..anybody hoping for another 20 win season is a true loser. We have now two top picks to go along with Wood and Sengun. Have John Wall if we’d play him and KPJ. At what point does this losing mentality end??? Trade for a veteran star and fire Silas and we are competing which is why I watch this team….not to consistently lose 10 games in a row.
As I’ve pretty much resigned myself to the reality that Jabari and Chet will go 1-2, I went ahead and spent some time scouting Paolo. Executive summary: He is worthy of the #1 pick, along with Jabari and Chet. The separations between them are a matter of preference, and not talent or ability. #1 The defensive concerns are a bit overblown. He’s got some highlights that show he’s at least capable of really good defense. Lateral motion looks good…he’s not a stiff. More of a wing that can play the 4 than a big that can play the wing. Beyond that, the mistakes and absentmindedness look like normal stuff for an 18 year old. #2 The shooting stuff is way overblown. He looks like a long term above average shooter from 3, and perhaps someone that can even create his own shot from out there. He won’t be Jabari, who can hit super contested shots with a quick release, but he is not without talent as a shooter. Shot over 50% from 3 in the tournament. This is not a bad shooter than needs to be “coached up” to average. He’s an average shooter that can improve with reps. #3 Size and vertical are legit. Paolo 6’10” height 7’0.5” wingspan 41” vertical (Duke combine) Here’s how that compares to a few modern bigs/wings: Blake Griffin 6’8.5” height without shoes 6’11.25” wingspan 35.5” vertical Aaron Gordon 6’7.5” height w/o shoes 6’11.75” wingspan 39” vertical Julius Randle 6’7.75” height w/o shoes 7’0.75” wingspan 35.5” vertical Lebron 6’7.25” height w/o shoes 7’0.25” wingspan 44” vertical Carmelo 6’6.25” height w/o shoes 7’0” wingspan 33.5” vertical Paolo is not short, he does not have T-Rex arms, and he is not ground bound. I made the argument on twitter that his best comp is Lebron. No he is not as good as Lebron, but that’s his best size and athletic comparison. He doesn’t quite have Lebron’s athletic gifts, so he’s developed a game that relies more on craftiness than brute force. Again, think big wing rather than stretch 4. #4 He’s a 3 level scorer. a) His 41” vertical allows him to finish at a high level around the basket. Also saw multiple highlights of him double jumping off a miss to finish. b) Had one of the best mid-range shots in college basketball. c) shot 34% from 3. 50%+ in the tournament. d) shot 4.8 free throws per game. Very good at drawing fouls. #5 He is already a VERY advanced distributor. Can pass off the dribble and from the post. Can hit cutters, pass out to the perimeter, cross court, etc. Others have said he’s probably the most advanced passer in the lottery. I believe that’s correct, and is probably the best argument for his superstar potential. Review I came into scouting Paolo a skeptic, and walked away a believer in his talent and measurables. I do not know about his fit with Sengun, which is actually an improvement over where I was at the beginning of this. I at least think it’s possible they could work together IF Paolo commits himself to improving on the defensive end. He will need to be above average for it to work. If we draft him, I’ll be a happy dude. He belongs in the conversation with Chet and Jabari for #1 overall, and it would not surprise me if we look back and say we were fortunate that we had to take him, rather than passing on him at #1 or #2.
Not 100% that Banchero will be available at #3. The top of this draft is far from settled. Rockets, like OKC, are in catbird seat either way.
Stone has some non basketball connections with Banchero. And we all know that Green favors Banchero. Rockets still have that weird player entitlement culture. But the wildcard is who does Patrick really like, because that's who Stone will pick should that player be available when Rockets pick. Either of top 3 players would be win-win imo.
Good write up. Take the 41” with a grain of salt, it’s a school combine. Ben Simmons had a 40+ vert at LSU and later tested at 36” He is not a better athlete than Blake Griffin coming out, he might test well but it’s not in game ability or near the explosion. Banchero is a solid athlete, not at elite or explosive one. And not even remotely in the ball park of Lebron. Corey Kispert had a 37.5 inch vert at the actual combine
I don't believe OKC's epic tank program - which finally netted them a top 2 pick after years of literally redefining the term - is going to end with them trading down
Fin, Really enjoyed this read--well done! I agree and I'd add that I don't have issues with the Alpi / Paolo combo after thinking through it. While neither is elite defensively, I believe good, competitive players will give it their best--especially if they push each other and are coached appropriately. Sengun gives his all, and Paolo will up gis game when he doesn't have to carry the load. Having 2 creative big men could force other teams away from small ball, especially with athletic guys like we have to surround them. Any way, love the take and enjoyed your research.
Great analysis, I'm sold! This is why some of us were low key hoping for the 3rd pick. We get a 2nd building block for Jalen to run with yet avoid the incessant drama that would have unfolded with the first or second pick.
Dam Sharpe has a 49 inch vertical - will his parents make him sit out the first years of his Rookie contract to fetch him a Max contract then decide to play in the NBA ?
I can see OKC making that trade if Presti thinks Ivey is the guy over Chet and Banchero. Pick up some Sacramento pieces along the way.
I'm on the train of initially I didn't want Paolo, but the more video I watch on him, the more I want him. Give me Paolo or Chet, and I'm happy. I think Paolo will probably have a better career, to be honest. Hell, I'll say it: in my opinion, Paolo has the best career of the three of them.
this is the best post about Paolo on this site imo. Congrats! Listening to you on this spaces too. Good stuff. I mean… all the above is with positive glasses on … but with those glasses it’s very easy to see how Paolo could be the really star of this draft. IF…. IF IF IF IF IF the dude can play wing - as his motion and style seems to fit in a Lebron way - he has insanely unique upside. HOWEVER… all that said, ultimately the game doesn’t care about unique attributes, whether stuff is overblown or whatnot. Skill and talent prevail every time. Apples to apples, skill and talent at a unique 6’10 wing is better than the same on a 6’6 wing… but the point remains, Paolo MAY have all this uniqueness potential, but he’ll HAVE to hit high 30s on 3s. He’ll have to bring the defense. the Warriors are going to falter eventually but imagine a warriors esque team now or in the future. Those teams dgaf about your uniqueness. They’re going to kill you over and over with their unique style and pure skill, talent and fundamentals. the absolute BEST part about our picks last year so far are that they all want it badly. JG wants to be the best. Forget the offense. The defensive jump in season was crazy. JayGup is constantly talking about work he’s putting in. You know Alpi has insane confidence and wants to be the best and work at it. Paolo, Jabari, whatever.. they have to have the absolute insane all the time want it. it’s a bit unfair, but I think Paolo especially. Maybe it’s because his style got bogged down a bit in college… maybe it’s because there were definitely defensive possessions where he wasn’t all in all the time. but whatever… the point remains, when I sit down with Paolo I REALLY want to understand mentality. Or when I talk to other of his coaches, teammates, etc. is he a gym rat? Does he work on defense nonstop? Etc. Paolo WAY more than Chet and Jabari has empty stat potential. It was the same with Tatum - a really hard scouting that draft too imo. Tatum without average to above average defense, without the above average 3, the above average bball iq, the above average want to… is empty stats. I’m 100% on board with Paolo and very excited for it. but if they’re going to want to then take the next step of incredible individual talent and make a winning basketball team, then we are really talking what they’re doing not during games, how they’re being coached, how they accept being coached, etc.
I was about to say the exact same thing. At first I was resigned to Banchero, but the more I watch of him, the more I actively want him to be the pick. I like that he's a smart player who can score from all 3 levels plus has very solid court vision and passing. I think the defense concerns are overblown as a lot of it seems to be lack of focus rather than lack of ability. He appears to be the most certain thing in the top 5.
Think about it; the cost for the kings would be another FRP at least and maybe something else to move up. Thunder like collecting picks and they will throw their whole treasure trove to get victor next year
Don't agree - the Thunder still have more picks than they can actually use. At some point they have to build something and it frankly doesn't get more buildy thsn the 2 overall pick.
