Do you mean Smith's jumper won't be blocked or altered or do you mean finishing inside? Because length and athleticism normally isn't a huge advantage for shooters. Smith is actually blocked quite a bit at the rim despite his physical gifts.
He shot 43% from 2. Its well documented now, he's not great at the rim and takes a lot of tough mid-range shots too. He's a FANTASTIC shooter. If open the best shooter of the top 3 by far. But all his shots are very tough pullups or turnarounds. He has no dribble drive. He's the worse rebounder of the top 3. The only flaw on Chet is his body. Some would say his aggressiveness as "the guy" but he's very aggressive, just controlled and does what the coach wants. On the court, he doesn't really have flaws. Jabari and Paolo both have huge potential flaws, imo. Tier 1 = Chet Tier 2 = Jabari, Paolo to me
Stone said in his interview last night that it is 100% too early to draft for fit. There are concerns with Jabari too. Watching him dribble in the open floor is not exactly fun. His ability to finish is also a very real concern. This is only going to get more difficult for him at the NBA. In college his FG% at the rim was 14%. You read that right. That is not only the worst in college basketball but historically bad for a forward. Forget about Giannis. His shot creation is very robotic and usually a quick move to get to his spots. He's not the type of guy who can create downhill offense and he's not even close to the ball handler or shot creator that Kevin Durant was. He's not an elite rebounder and while his perimeter defense has upside, he's way too overhyped as a defender in the post. His passing and limited ability to make reads just might be the worst thing about him at this juncture. You are looking at a very perimeter oriented big who can shoot and ideally play defense. That sounds like a role player to me. Everything about him screams DeAndre Hunter coming out of college to me. Hunter was also a great 3 point shooter who was 6'10 and played a perimeter game. You'd have to bank on significant improvement in shot creation to warrant a #1 pick on Smith imo. He needs a lot of playmaking work just to be Franz Wagner. His size isn't as unique in the NBA and I have concerns about him getting separation from NBA defenders as well as rebounding and being elite at any one aspect of defense. While he is better on the perimeter than the paint defensively, I'm not sure he will be elite at either. I don't see how improved spacing helps his game at all honestly. Its just going to be harder to get shots off, and even harder to score in the paint which he is already terrible at. Improved spacing would help if he could handle the ball and make reads well or attack downhill. If he could do those things though he'd be Paolo Banchero .
Offensive rebounding is one of the things that the Rockets are really big on as an organization. That and shot selection and the ability to switch defensively. Holmgren is going to be a well above average switch defender for a 4/5, we know that based on the film. Some things do not always translate to the NBA but switching is one thing that does when it is obvious. It would be a genuine concern if he were going to try and play the 3, but he isn't. Yeah, Banchero is not an especially good rebounder like Holmgren is, but he also isn't someone like Mo Taylor where it is going to be a complete waste. Banchero should be a good enough rebounder for it not to keep him off the court. That is what I mean when I say he isn't a complete waste on the boards. There are some players that are deficient in skills that it keeps them off the floor in match ups and that wont be the case with Banchero. He is an good enough. Banchero is the most talented offensive player amongst all the big men in this draft but I wouldn't necessarily say he is the most polished. He is very good in a straight line, he uses his strength very well, he dribbles well and has some play making ability. He doesn't shoot well from the perimeter and he has suspect shot selection. FWIW I am pretty confident that he will be a solid shooter. He is also the best non guard volume scorer in this draft. If I were drafting just on the offensive side, I would take Banchero over Smith or Holmgren. Do I think Smith will average more points than Banchero in his prime? No, Smith is more of a role player.... he will get a lot of points from 3 off kick outs and in transition but he isn't going to be someone that you hand the ball to and let create in the half court. Banchero is very likely to be better at that. I would say Smith will be a more efficient scorer but not as prolific scorer. Banchero at his peak will score more than Smith likely will.
Stone said last night that it is too early in the process to draft for fit. This needs to be stickied at the top of clutch fans.
From the perimeter he isn't likely to be blocked, so he shouldn't struggle to shoot from 3 at a high clip and on a high volume of attempts. As far as his struggles inside, they are quite real and a determination has to be made if it is because he isn't comfortable with his dribble or if it is because he really doesn't like contact. One of those can be improved but the other one is a mentality. There are weaknesses that Smith has (that I have pointed out for months) that will likely keep him from becoming a #1 scorer on a team. He can however be an efficient #2-3 scorer that scorers on the perimeter and in transition and is a plus defender that doesn't need to be covered up. What is that type of player worth? I suppose it is in the eye of the beholder but I can say that building a team with someone that doesn't have to be hidden on the floor means there are a lot more options.
You take the best player. Having players that do not box you in also is a consideration as well. Holmgren is the best player and the best fit for the Rockets. Smith is very valuable as well and he will contribute on both sides of the court. Banchero is a very valuable player on the offensive side of the floor but he doesn't address the defensive side of the floor.
attributes look nice but at the end of the day he's known to be extremely soft and we know he can't shoot.
I get what people see in him. He is EXTREMELY long with a 7'7" wingspan and he isn't a complete plodder so the hope is he can stay on the court when Gobert and Ayton are sitting on the bench. Those are valuable attributes but his play and production just are not all the great. At times he looks very good in certain match ups but he also looks lazy and disinterested at times and I have seen him bullied around the basket. I think at the end of the day he is a role player with very limited offensive upside that in some match ups can be useful. He can play 15-20 minutes a night when the other team goes big inside too. However there are a number of guys in this draft like that. Walker Kessler is a better post defender and shot blocker, Christian Koloko is out there too and there is also Diop and Nzosa and Orlando Robinson. Good value for role playing centers in round 2.
bigs like him just aren't anything special. He has no versatility to go with the body, soft, and not an outside threat. I mean there could be a spot for him on a team looking for a big in a backup spot minutes role but other than it's nothing to get that excited for. If some team reaches for him higher than what he should go, they're going to be extremely disappointed
Who is Tatum, Butler, or Brown in this draft? I would prefer Michael Jordan. What does it matter if they aren't there? Who are you talking about? None of the guys you've cited fit that. Holmgren is 2 years from an nba body. Banchero is below average on defense. Smith you've agreed is a big pj tucker and you claim has no handle. Are you imagining other players at the top of this draft? Is Keegan Murray your Jason Tatum or Jimmy Butler?
Banchero can become a scorer like Tatum. They have a similar skill set coming out of college and even shot the 3 ball about the same. Only difference is Banchero is bigger. Keep in mind Tatum lead the league in scoring but he also lead the league in field goal attempts and it wasn't particularly close iirc. The big misconception you are making here is assuming that Tatum who has a 106drtg is a good defender. I made a post early this season about Tatum and how the Celtics were better defensively with him off the floor. Perhaps he should have not gone 3rd overall after all!
Not opposed to something like this... To Wizards #3 Christian Wood To Rockets #10 Rui Hachimura Deni Avdija Unprotected 2023 #1 pick 2024 pick swap The idea is if you're not sold on who is there, it's a chance to pick up something like Mark Williams or Sochen while picking up some decent draft capital... also would assume a favorable like by rockets scouts on rui and deni... If you're the Wizards maybe you go all in for Beal... add Ivey or Banchero with Wood in one move... Could look like a playoff roster if the hit on #3...
I'm sorry, you put Tatum out there with Butler and others. Are they all overrated? Ive not seen a single scouting report praise Banchero on defense... ive heard Carmelo comparisons which isn't winning basketball... I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm saying show me what you're reading that i haven't seen.... this sounds like the opposite of what I've seen... Just trying to have an open mind and be fair. Opinions of scouts can differ and be wrong.
Wow you are right. I just looked. Tatum was the leader in scoring for most of this year. I'm surprised he fell all the way to 5th. Good call.
I don't really see how Banchero and Tatum are all that similar honestly. Tatum is like 40 lbs lighter and 2-3 inches shorter and he is quicker and smoother than Banchero is on the floor.... he also has far better defensive attributes and can guard the perimeter. Banchero has a lot of offensive skills and has a chance to be a high level scorer but he really isn't all that similar to Tatum as a player. Also if Banchero were on a team surrounded by Smart, Williams, Brown etc., his defense wouldn't me much of a concern either.
he was my favorite player in that draft and I have no idea what those other GMs were thinking. But I guess we can play Monday morning QB all day with past drafts.
The way Tatum was playing earlier this year I'd say for sure he's overrated. Now that the Celtics are rolling, its kind of hard to knock the guy. He's really good. The handle, passing, rebounding from a wing is something you will get with Banchero. Again Tatum's 3 point shot was pretty much on par with Banchero this year. Tatum is considered on of the best shot creators in the league including from 3 so in theory there is not reason Banchero can't be that as well. No one is praising Banchero's defense. You asked who could become Tatum and I'm telling you that Tatum is not a great defensive player either. I do think Banchero's measurables along with his athleticism will allow him to play defense with the right coaching. He's taking people off the dribble consistently and that also takes lateral quickness does it not? Carmelo Anthony and Tatum are both more tweener than Banchero. He's not some 6'8 dude. He's 6'10 250 and very physical. I spent way too much time last year trying to convince people that Sengun wouldn't be a complete black hole on defense. Paolo is more athletic than Sengun. I really don't see the problem outside of effort and coaching bad habits.
