2022 Astros Minor League Thread

The luxury tax is 230 million this season and 233 million next season.

https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/phillies/heres-what-know-about-mlbs-new-cba-deal

 

Obviously a lot will change over the next 10 months and yes it’s likely Brown will be in the big league rotation if he isn’t traded.

Matijevic came into the season as an afterthought but his performance in AAA so far this season has him projecting as a solid everyday bat. The fact that he’s left handed makes him even more appealing. And his power is such that he has a pretty high ceiling (I have used Kyle Schwarber as a 90th percentile comp). I don’t know what Houston really thinks of him and what their plans are with Yuli. If Yuli has a down year and/or is keen on staying in Houston then I think there could be a place for him as a 13th position player who can back up 1B/3B/DH and he makes sense as a platoon partner if Matijevic is the 1B.

fwiw there are only 4 Astros prospects since 2013 (min 50pa) who have posted better wRC+ in AAA than what Matijevic has done this season:

George Springer
Yordan Alvarez
Abraham Toro
Tyler White

 

Also, backloading backfires if down the road the Astros want to trade a player as AAV is recalculated for new team based on what's left on the deal at time of trade.

 

Last comment has me looking at historical seasons in the Astros system. Some cherry picking numbers from each level:

A ball:
Luke Berryhill, age 23, 2021: 13.6%bb, 25.2%k, .331ISO, 179 wRC+
Yordan Alvarez, age 20, 2017: 16.5%bb, 25.9%k, .297ISO, 207 wRC+
Quincy Hamilton, age 24, 2022: 11.1%bb, 17.5%k, .194 ISO, 149 wRC+
Brett Phillips, age 20, 2014: 8.1%bb, 17.2%k, .219 ISO, 148 wRC+

High A:
Nerio Rodriguez, age 22, 2022: 11.7%bb, 23.3%k, .326 ISO, 182 wRC+
Yainer Diaz, age 22, 2021: 7.6%bb, 16.2%k, .385 ISO, 213 wRC+
Kyle Tucker, age 20, 2017: 11.7%bb, 21.7%k, .266 ISO, 159 wRC

AA:
Enmanuel Valdez, age 23, 2022: 18.1%bb, 25%k, .245 ISO, 157 wRC+
Yordan Alvarez, age 21, 2018: 10%bb, 23.7%k, .290 ISO, 168 wRC+

AAA:
JJ Matijevic age 26, 2022: 13.8%bb, 22.3%k, .385 ISO, 170 wRC+
Yordan Alvarez, age 22, 2019: 15%bb, 19.8%k, .399 ISO, 170 wRC+

 

So since 2006, there have been 4 batters 24 or under in the PCL (or AAA West) with a season K% >30, ISO over 0.200, and wRC+ over 130 (50 AB min):
Gallo, Chapman, Leon, and Schwarber.

 

Ooh, Chapman might not be a bad ceiling comp for Leon in terms of overall value.

 

I kind of like the Schwarber comp better.

 

The more Ks, the less GIDPs.

 

I have long placed Leon somewhere between Leury Garcia and Mookie Betts based on his size and defensive profile. But I think that’s becoming less accurate the more Leon gets established as a guy who will carry a high k rate. Schwarber just feels odd because he’s an offense only player and hits left handed. Chapman works for me because he has a lot of value with the glove and strikes out a lot for a star, and he hits righty.

 

Is there any reason Enmanuel Valdez shouldn't be shooting up top prospect lists this season? 23 years old with a 1.023 OPS at AA batting lefty while being able to play at 2nd base seems like a lot of upside, no?

 

Schwarber won a World Series ring though in the year he did that in the PCL.

 

Chapman and Sean Murphy, who I both have really liked for years, have kinda fallen off a cliff offensively. No idea why.

 

He is pretty small (5’8” with a thick body) so it’s hard to look at him and think he can be a star. Plus even though he is putting up dominant numbers he is still striking out 25% of the time, not a major concern but for a smaller player it’s higher than you would typically see from a future big league star. Also remarks on his defense have been mixed. So it makes sense he is viewed as a relatively low ceiling player. But certainly his performance this year has his stock shooting up and it wouldn’t be a shock if he panned out into an everyday caliber infielder and he projects as a good bench bat.

 

Gurriel musta heard about all that smack I been talking; dude has completely turned it around in like 3 games.

 

Seriously, out of nowhere Yuli looks like Yuli

 

Jayson Schroeder's final line - 0.1 IP, 1 hit, 3 runs (all earned), one HBP, 4 walks. Had 3 runners stranded, up to a 10.61 ERA. What a waste of a 2nd round pick.

 

Always need add-ins for trades

 

Don't remember...was he hurt when/before we drafted him, or am I thinking about Joe Perez? I know he was hurt shortly thereafter. It happens.