Yeah, they're OK right this moment but high winds and dry conditions have proven to me, that can change in a moments notice. I now keep a "GTFO" bag ready should SHTF.
I was recently reading a discussion about something non-weather related and one of the posters included an off-topic comment about not being used to seeing Aspen trees showing some stress in late April.
Prime burning conditions (hot and dry enough to carry fire through multiple types of fuels) have increased by about 20 days per decade over the last 40 years. That's almost three more months than 20th century norms. That trend appears to be accelerating. One of the reasons I'm such a climate hawk is that I've seen the conditions change significantly for the worse over the last couple of decades. Delay is the new denial, speedy change is better than forced change.
Smoke from NM, dust storm moving into the OK panhandle, and in the bottom corner a dry line setting off storms with tornado potential. Crazy.
It's pretty much the opposite now in NE Texas, I think. The DFW area and east have gotten a few soaking storms/rains recently. It seems like in terms of drought and fire conditions, Central and West Texas have it pretty bad with that Odessa/Midland/Lubbock area probably the worst. From looking at the upcoming weather here in the DFW area, we're about to possibly get soaked again next week. I hate the hail and possible tornadoes, but I don't mind that rain... lots of it.
I was reading a discussion about Ukraine and one person mentioned the fires in Siberia and that the Russian military would be less likely to have spare manpower to help fight the fires this year. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05...eak-out-in-siberia-kill-at-least-10/101047572 Rare May fires break out in Siberia, killing at least 10 Fires that have broken out across south-western Siberia have killed at least 10 people and damaged hundreds of buildings, according to local authorities. Key points: Authorities say 300 firefighters are battling blazes in difficult conditions Rare fires in May have been attributed to a lack of rain and strong winds Forest-rich Siberia has suffered from unprecedented fires for several years Hundreds of firefighters are trying to contain the blazes, which are a rare occurrence in the region during May and have been fueled by a lack of rain and fierce winds, they said. In the Krasnoyarsk region, at least five people lost their lives in the fires, which damaged about 450 homes, the local authorities said, declaring a state of emergency. In the Kemerovo region, three people were found dead in a burnt home. In the Omsk region, two people died. "Extinguishing [the fires] is being complicated by meteorological conditions. Violent winds are fanning the flames and preventing them from being put out," the regional ministry for emergencies in Krasnoyarsk said on Telegram. Regional governor Alexander Uss said gales of up to 40 metres per second had brought down trees and power lines across large swathes of the Krasnoyarsk region, sparking the fires. Authorities said 300 firemen backed by 90 vehicles were fighting the flames. "We have called for help from neighbouring territories but are aware that will in the best case not arrive for some hours," said Mr Uss, adding temporary shelters were being opened for people in the worst-hit areas. "I have given the order to cut off electricity in part of the region — save for survival facilities, service stations and water supply systems," he said. Roman Vilfand, of Russia's Hydrometeorological Research Centre, told the TASS news agency that such fires were rare in May. "But there hasn't been rain for a long time, there were fires, and then strong wind," he said. Forest-rich Siberia has suffered from unprecedented fires for several years. Last year, they belched 16 million tonnes of carbon into the atmosphere, according to an annual European climate report.
Yeah, even in the best of times, the Russian government doesn't care about (much less invest in) wildland fire. Russia has burned massive acreages and several communities over the last several years. Russian smoke routinely reaches the west coast and the fires are left to burn out in the winter. Unfortunately, not all of them do. In the spring, these pop up and start moving again. They're dealing with new fires and zombie fires as well as record high spring and summer temps in recent years. The Russian firefighting force is not large, not trained, and not well-equipped. Having a handful of people trying to work a fires that are 100k acres or a million acres is not really working the fire. At best, you might be able to do some structure protection as the fire comes rolling through. Here's a holdover fire burning in peat beneath the snow all winter. The photo was taken in temps well below 0. This was Siberia last year. Siberia in 2020. May 1 fire situation in Russia. That line will move north in the coming weeks. 50 million acres have burned in Siberia since 2019. That's the equivalent of Nebraska. Some of the fuels are tundra types, but there are a lot of forests in Siberia. This is Uyar, a town of 12,000 just a few days ago. Krasnoyarsk, the third largest city in Siberia with close to 1 million people. Pretty clear that both structure and wildland firefighters are overwhelmed. This current Russian wildfire had a run of 18 miles in one day. Not surprisingly, people have died and will continue to die.
One more note: In Russia, like Alaska, there is a lot of what we would call good dozer ground, meaning you can build a fireline quickly using a dozer on relatively flat land and then use that dozer line to drive in or hike in firefighters and equipment. However, when you scrape the top off of permafrost it can start to melt fast and quickly turn into a muddy suck. Sometimes, it becomes impassable to all vehicles and humans sink down to their knees. It's an added complication in that part of the world.
Thank you for the visuals and the writeup. I have a friend who worked in Russia for a while on a pipeline project and knows people that had interactions with Russians for a project on Sakhalin Island. Expectations are lower there with the government and some of the people doing just enough to get by which is in agreement with what you said. Maybe things could be better if there were reasons for the people to be optimistic. Starting to go too far offtopic... ...so back to discussions about fires.
Damn, are there any positive Russian stereotypes of them being stewards of the earth? All I read in the past century is invade, pillage, rape, oppress/relocate...
Hermit's Peak fire in northern NM grew 30,000 acres yesterday and similar growth is expected today. It will be on the landscape for weeks more. On the north end of the fire, it's running through higher elevations spruce/fir, helped along by ridges oriented in a way that enhances the wind effects. It's what we call alignment--worst case combo of fuels, topography and weather. Because it's a fast-moving fire in a closed canopy, firefighters aren't going close to this flaming front. They're trying to push the fire around communities and set up contingency lines for later actions. Until that alignment gets altered, it will continue to move and cause problems. Incidentally, that forest type doesn't usually burn with so much energy, but the drought and alignment have made it so. It's highly unlikely a spruce/fir forest in the SW will come back, given the changing conditions we're creating. It's a stand-replacement fire. Like in many forests, we're burning the existing structure and replacing it with shrubs--which burn more often.
Crazy info about Siberia. Given how much methane is locked in the permafrost there out of control fires are probably just adding to the vicious cycle of climate change. Just saw a friend in rural Maine posting about a wildfire near his house. https://www.wmtw.com/article/clarified-who-is-us-congresswoman-patsy-takemoto-mink/39959613 Crews battle multiple wildfires as fire danger remains high in Maine Conditions are prime for fires to spread quickly, but relief could be on the way by the end of the weekend Most of Maine is listed at high or very high wildfire risk as a warm start to spring has dried out much of the North East. On Tuesday, areas of New Hampshire were put under a red flag warnings as wind gusts increased local wildfire risks. Those conditions will likely remain for several days before the relative humidity rises this weekend and some showers arrive. "We know that just from years and years of looking at the data, that these days are the one's where we have the most trouble containing a fire," said Forest Ranger Specialist Kent Nelson. Crews are battling several large wildfires in the area. The largest is the Centennial Fire burning near the northern part of the White Mountains National Forest near the Maine-New Hampshire border. As of Tuesday evening, that fire had burned at least 45 acres and had forced the closure of part of the Appalachian Trail. That fire started Monday morning. The Forest Service says it might have been caused by a person who started the fire for warmth or cooking. A person of interest has been interviewed. The Maine Forest Service said the Monument Road Fire in Amity was fully contained Tuesday night, but it had burned 19 acres. Another fire in Lakeville burned 15 acres. Rangers said both of those fires were caused by debris burns that got out of control. Nelson said anyone doing an outdoor activity involving fire, including campfires or burning yard clippings, should take extra precautions to prevent uncontrolled spread. He said fires should be doused and stirred with a stick or shovel until there is not longer any heat coming from the pile. A large fire is also burning in Nova Scotia that could have impacts in Maine. By Tuesday night, that fire had burned about 2,500 acres and smoke from the fire was blowing toward Maine. That smoke was expected to create a haze in the air over interior parts of Maine on Wednesday. In Western Maine, the fire danger Tuesday was listed as very high. According to the National Fire Danger Rating System, that means fires start easily from all causes, and immediately after ignition, spread rapidly and increase quickly in intensity. Direct attack at the head of such fires is rarely possible after they have been burning for more than a few minutes.
Any chance they can replant saplings, like we've done and are still doing with the pines around Bastrop? Love that area of NM, been hiking, camping, hunting there several times.
Same here. We had family friends in Las Vegas, NM, and visited often when I was a kid, and I even lived there for a summer when I was 15, working on a horse ranch. Beautiful place. I'm 90% sure I rode a horse up Hermit's Peak when I was 9 or 10. I remember the name being talked about and we rode up some mountains the same day.
Drought kills trees with shallow roots. A bunch of ponderosa pine were planted in NM after some severe fires that happened in 2000. The best predictor of survivability? Those planted close enough to the trails for hikers to water them. It’s also a question of scale. Not enough saplings and money to replant the acreage we’re burning these days. And then there is the safety issue—burned snags come down easily. You don’t want a lot of exposure planting trees under a black canopy.
