No I am with you in that we need to fix our defense first. That being said, if Holmgren is gone and we have the next pick I don't think Jabari's defense is going to be the difference maker that Chet would have brought to this team. His 3 point accuracy would be more useful to a team that was 20th in the league in %. Like, Holmgren by himself could elevate this team's defense from 30th to, say, 25th. I don't see Jabari making that kind of impact so why not take the guy that can potentially smooth out a lot of the wrinkles on the offensive end and build around that core of Green/Banchero by acquiring more defenders?
I’m really just going with all the pre-draft analysis that I have heard and my own eye test, but I trust Stone. If he has Jabari and Banchero available and picks Banchero, I was most certainly wrong. I do think Banchero and Sengun are somewhat redundant if Sengun learns to shoot.
I don't think it's reasonable, he is a very willing passer and has not shown the propensity to be a volume shooter, one thing I thought was missing in his game was being aggressive and hunting shots. This myth that Banchero needs the ball in his hands to be effective is supposition and using what that team needed as a negative. Does Sengun need the ball in his hands to be effective?
FWIW: DBPM: Holmgren: 7.5 Smith: 3.8 Banchero: 2.3 Defensive WS: Holmgren: 3.1 Smith: 2.3 Banchero: 2.2 Block%: Holmgren: 12.6% Smith: 3.8% Banchero: 2.7% TRB%: Holmgren: 19.6% Smith: 13.6% Banchero: 17.5% DRB%: Holmgren: 28.7% Smith: 23.5% Banchero: 19.1% ORB%: Holmgren: 8% Smith: 3.5% Banchero: 6.4%
It's the natural play making that sets him apart for me, none of the other top 3 guys seem to have that natural ability.
All valid points. In the end, I think either Jabari or Banchero will be a good addition to the team. Just think Jabari is a better fit with Sengun and think KPJ and Green have proven they can be a two-headed monster in the backcourt if given the space. Jabari, in my opinion, will provide more space and will be the long and athletic wing that is the missing link to our defense. Wood could be that guy if he didn’t demand the ball and would put the effort in on defense, but that ship has sailed.
I was right there with you on liking Jabari over Banchero until a couple of weeks ago. I had the same mindset--Smith would be a boon for a creator like Sengun and drivers like Green and Porter. That spacing would be huge. On the other end of the court not having a below average defender on the court would be a nice change of pace. Having a more engaged defender in lieu of Wood could have made all the difference for the team this past season. I'll be happy with any of the top 3 prospects. I think my thought process shifted because, looking at the landscape right now and what "true" point guards are available that fits within the roster's age/timeline, there aren't a lot of options to fill that void. I'm not saying Banchero is the answer to "Can he be our point guard?" question but having another guy (in addition to Sengun) that can be a willing passer but can also score when needed seems to help the team more. I'm still hellbent on not wanting Porter be the table setter for this team as I think he's best suited to be a scorer exclusively.
The big man is back... All these teams have massive dudes that are crazy physical? Unfortunately I think any of the top 3 bigs ESPECIALLY Jabari get handled easily. Bucks are an average regular season defense, Lopez was hurt. Boston, the league's best defensive cannot stop them, not to mention Bucks are without their 2nd best player. The Bucks are just too damn big. Grizz, without Ja, and now that they start playing Adams, just too damn big for GSW. Embiid, Lowry, Middleton, Luka, Booker, Ja All these dudes missed time, unfortunate injuries happen... stack playmaking talent and give yourself the opportunity to keep advancing. One Gobert isn't going to do anything for you.
good conversation thanks. KPJ seems to be where we disagree and I’m on the losing end of that argument with about 60 percent of the board. I would like to see KPJ get into his moves quicker and hope he gets to be a better passer. Part of that is on him, but another part is Silas putting in more cutting and PnR as promised. I really like that either KPJ or Green can take over games when the other is off or in foul trouble and maybe Banchero could do the same, just really unconvinced he will become a plus defender.
At least we can agree that Porter still has potential to be a valuable player on this team. Back to Banchero/Smith, there's a weird trend in the past 10 years that Duke forwards don't really translate into plus defenders in the NBA. On the flip side there's been a few examples of where a college prospect posting a very good DBPM that ended up being an average defender in the NBA or worse. Freshman forwards with a 3 DBPM (Jabari's DBPM was 3.8) or higher than has had a 0 or worse DBPM in the NBA: Miles Bridges (college DBPM 3.6; career NBA DBPM: -0.3) Cam Reddish (college DBPM 3.2; career NBA DBPM: -0.5) Jayson Tatum (college DBPM 3.2; career NBA DBPM: 0.5) Stanley Johnson (college DBPM 4.4; career NBA DBPM: 0.8) Justise Winslow (college DBPM 4.6; career NBA DBPM: 0.7) I cherry picked these guys from my query because they all shot at least 100 3s in college so the model (3 point shooting forward who defended well) is closer to what Jabari is at this point. Of course I'd be ecstatic if Jabari ends up being Tatum but even he has been a slightly above average defender thus far in the NBA. That's the reason why I don't think Jabari's defense was significantly great enough over Paolo's that I can still say "I'd be Jabari over Paolo because he's got great 3 point accuracy and better defense" because the defensive metrics don't tell the story that Jabari run laps around Paolo.
You can never have too many players who see the floor well. PB does not skip leg day and has a solid base. And 1s for days. I like Chet’s mindset. He’s got a bit of Bird in him. He’ll need all of that. I love Jabari’s shot. It’s easy to get seduced by. He has the greatest distance to go of the three in skills development, but it is tantalizing. I’m happy with any of those three and will be disappointed if we don’t get one.
There is accuracy in comparing Paolo and Jabari's athleticism. Neither are nuclear athletes like Ivey (or like Green, Kuminga, Mobley last draft). No prospect in top 3 of this draft is a nuclear athlete to be fair. The defensive difference between Paolo and Jabari is in effort and lateral agility. Steal and block rate/production is very close with Jabari having slight edge in both. But other than 2P% and AST, Jabari is offensively and defensively the more efficient player. 3P% Jabari .420 > Paolo .338 3PA rate Jabari .440 > Paolo .253 FT% Jabari .799 > Paolo .729 FTA rate Jabari .384 > Paolo .366 TS% Jabari > Paolo EFG% Jabari .521 > Paolo .520 WS/40 Jabari .131 > Paolo .124 ORTG Jabari 116.5 > Paolo 113.8 DRTG Jabari 90.7 > Paolo 98.1 Box +/- (BPM) Jabari 11.1 > Paolo 7.7 DBPM Jabari 3.8 > Paolo 2.3 OBPM Jabari 7.4 > Paolo 5.4 https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=paolo-banchero--jabari-smith That said, Paolo upside is higher while Jabari has the higher floor imo.
Yes, Sengun needs the ball on offense to maximize him. Like Banchero, his best offensive trait is his passing. Sengun is not an efficient off ball player. It comes down to efficiency.
Insane verticality and speed backcourt but low IQ and inefficient imo. Nevermind the defensive concerns.
The difference between how he plays teams like Georgia State and Arkansas is night and day and it was a pattern all season with Chet. Competition matters. Timme also went off in this game (all of their tourney games actually). Lets not forget Chet was in foul trouble for the next two games in the tourney. Cant just ignore those tough games and make excuses as to why Chet didnt pick it up. He will have the biggest target on his back in the NBA. There will be prop bets as to who will dunk on him or block his shot. Kid better be prepared.
Not springing for the subscription guys sorry! But Barlowe is a reputable scout. Maybe someone else can find the article content.
I agree, Banchero's playmaking at his size is what makes him a top 3 talent. But I think Chet's playmaking ability is very underrated. Even as secondary scoring option and tertiary playmaking option (being generous, likely 4th of 5th playmaking option of the Zags starters) Chet still averaged 2.6 AST per 36 minutes. That is less than 1 AST difference from Paolo (3.5 AST per 36 minutes) who was one of if not THE primary facilitator at Duke.
Agreed, offense dipped but he still produced high level defense. Again, Chet not being featured more offensively was a criticism on Zags coach. And you cannot deny that Duke had the more talented players around Paolo vs Chet and Zags. Duke will have FOUR players drafted in 1st round this draft, possibly THREE in the lottery. Not to mention the GOAT coach. Timme may be the only other Gonzaga player drafted in 2022, and he is 2nd rounder at best. And fyi - I have no doubt that Chet will be prepared for NBA and not back down from anyone. His intangibles, especially confidence and mental toughness, are one of his best traits. And his all out effort on both ends of court are undeniable.
