Banchero is indeed underrated on here, he could easily be the 2nd star to match with Green. Actually any of the top 4 will be monumental, Ivey is considered less because he’s a guard, but an Ivey/Green backcourt could be a fast track to relevance in the WC.
The only reason Randall gets brought up is because scouting sites bring him up as a comp. I don’t think it’s a negative honestly
Jayson Tatum and Paolo just aren’t in the same tier when it comes to shooting…aside from the percentages where Tatum is much better from the line, Tatum had a 32% 3 point attempt rate while in college while Banchero’s was just 25%, and the 3 is a lot more emphasized now than it was in 2016 if Tatum was in college in 2022, he’d probably have been taking 6-7 threes a game Tatum is taking 8-9 threes a game these days. Do people really see Banchero launching threes like that in the NBA? Banchero plays more of a power game than Tatum ever did…Tatum has a smoother game and is more nimble IMO I don’t even fully trust KPJr’s 3 point shooting yet…maybe he’s a Bruce Bowen who shoots it well from 3, but then sucks shooting from everywhere else…his midrange percentage sucks, his free throws suck…if he shoots well next season, then I’ll be more of a believer because if he came out and shot 32% from deep or something like that next year, I wouldn’t be surprised Randle’s 41% was a huge outlier for him…next best he’s ever shot is 34%, and he’s routinely below or barely at 30%…Blake Griffin’s only had 2 years shooting decent from 3 Tatum is the type of shooter that gets invited to the 3 point contest, and makes it past the 1st round of the competition…I do not see a 3 point contest invite in Banchero’s future
Blake Griffin coming out of college would be the undisputed #1 pick in this draft. And it wasn't because of his Banchero like guard skills but because it was in combination with his uber explosive above the rim play. Blake was a freak of nature who also loved physical contact and rebounded the hell out of the ball. Tatum is a natural 3, small ball 4. Banchero is a natural 4, small ball 5. If Banchero can be as good as Tatum in passing lanes then perhaps that is Banchero's best comp.
Banchero is tougher than Tatum and more fluid than Randle. I see him as a pf version of Cade Cunningham. He is a creator and a ball handler bully baller
It’s not a complete negative but it doesn’t quite do him justice either. The size, skill, iq and fluidity difference between him and Randle puts his ceiling as a much better player.
It’s not a 100% comparison of course. They have similar profiles while being better in different areas. I only brought those three up as examples of how 3pt shooting can be improved even by extremely poor shooter.
Athletically speaking they’re pretty similar. Paolo is an inch taller but we need to see actual measurements.
when I watch Tatum play, Banchero just doesn’t come to mind for me…Paolo plays more of a bully power game while Tatum is more finesse I get why u brought those 3 up, but their shooting history told u to not expect them to be good shooters, and for the most part they’re not. Julius Randle has been pretty horrible from 3 aside from 1 outlier season, Blake’s been routinely below average, and I don’t trust KPJr as a shooter yet Was this 37% his outlier Julius Randle season, or is that who he actually is moving forward? I need to see if he can do it again because his history as a shooter is just too poor for me trust right now. Banchero is definitely a better shooter than Blake or Randle coming into the league, but Tatum has a pure stroke and is willing to shoot threes at high volume. That’s a pretty big difference when comparing him to Banchero like D-rock said, Tatum is a 3 who can play the 4 for stretches while Paolo is a 4 who can maybe play the 5 for stretches if it doesn’t result in hemorrhaging points on defense
This is pretty similar to what Paolo is athletically, just possibly a little taller. Randle has a better stroke but Paolo can get there. I see very similar type players. Solid athletes playing a facilitating power forward spot.
The 3pt can come, it may also not. We don't close the window on these young prospects, but we also shouldn't ignore that other kids his class are ahead of him in that category. Or assume someone will just improve because they're young. People could mention positive cases like an aging Carmelo Anthony eventually found the 3pt touch. Often not; it's like the Jae'sean Tate case. Where he probably worked on it, but it didn't translate on the court this year. Tate knows if he got his 3p% up, his next pay day would be much bigger, but sometimes people just don't have it. For all the guys who improves there are many who don't. Then the next question is if Paolo never develops the 3pt shot, say he's at 29% for his career, are you OK with still picking him, is that a deal breaker. Even if Tate/Sengun are not on the team, and you end up with Jazz situation in the playoffs, are you OK with that kind of system. Where the starter big is a non floor spacer on offense. Not to mention on defense Paolo likely won't doesn't give you that much either.
Do you see Green deferring to Banchero or vice versa? Because if Green defers to Banchero then he will be a catch and shoot player. And if so, you really believe Banchero as primary facillitator will work? Even Banchero's most positive draft profile projects him as a secondary playmaker. Or they can all take turns playing iso offense, same offense CF practically ran Harden, CP3 and MDA - the most efficient iso offensive players and coach - out of town. And defense will continue to be shyte if team is anchored by Green and Banchero, nevermind KPJ and Sengun in starting 5. Hoping either Green or Banchero become elite defensively is a fool's errand. And please do not post iso defensive stats, everyone knows those stats have zip to do with real defensive efficiency and efficacy.
Completely valid concerns. Defensively, I think Clutch was right on the Rocket Fuel Pod… if they build around Banchero and Green they have to surround those guys with defensive specialists. No doubt, but offensively I think this is Green’s team, so whoever they draft is option 1b. I wouldn’t dismiss the potential of the Green/Banchero combo reaching contender status eventually with the right supporting cast.
Thanks for this, I'm on board with Eason if we can get him. Keegan's stock rose over the season and I would likely have him over Eason but would take either of those two if they fall in our laps by position or opportunity. Keegan might actually be getting just a little bit overrated at this point, but should be a nice player. I like Eason over Dieng and Daniels at the moment, but you never know, if all three hit their potential he has things they don't have talent-wise, but it depends who works long-term and many other things.
High-quality post, thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts. I like Chet as a fan and two-way potential but if I'm an NBA GM and my job and resume are on the line, I'm picking Banchero and going to sleep in peace. He has the best bag of the top prospects, NBA ready body, consistently rose and succeeded under pressure mentally in the tournament as well. He'll likely win ROY or be a favorite depending on his situation. Depending on what you value as a GM, he may be the #1 pick in the draft when it's all said and done.
Looks like Portland, at least, may have their eye on him too. https://www.blazersedge.com/2022/5/...ketball-lsu-tigers-tari-eason-draft-prospects
Need to draft the best switchable rim protector AND perimeter defender in this draft. Drafting more 1 way players should not be the priority.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/paolo-banchero-1.html https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/jayson-tatum-1.html Paolo was a more decorated player than Tatum in college and both highly ranked in their high school class. Paolo is effective facing up similarly with ball handling as a strength and ability to break defenders off the dribble - LEGIT BALL HANDLING - not that gimmicky slow ass dribble behind the back to get into the lane type stuff. The guard handles people were saying Mobley had. He can also drop down and work you in the post with a variety of moves, counters on counters! PRECISION FOOTWORK. All you really have to do is run the film. While you're at it pull the Chris Webber film. Paolo's shot is not nearly as bad as people declare it to be. His defense is not a liability. I expect him to improve in those areas because - why wouldn't he? Is Paolo going to be stuck in the mud while his contemporaries improve? He will hold his own in isolation defense against NBA bodies because of his advantage in size. He gets in good position, doesn't get dislodged on box outs. Doesnt get blocked at the rim at an abnormally high level. Poor perimeter defense is overblown - in the NBA switching from 4 to 5 will be easy for him. With work he will get out on wings comfortably and at least in short spurts effectively - he's already shown the capability. Its not like there is some empirical evidence to prove otherwise - there is actual game film of him switching onto good guards and keeping up. Jayson Tatum and Paolo Banchero had an almost identical 3p% when looking at their college season they also had similar scoring averages and rebounding. Paolo ahead in assists. They had similar Orating, Drating and usage, but Paolo has better win shares across the board. (I know I know "teammates"). Paolo is extremely self aware. He isnt out there chucking up 3's to try and silence an audience. He plays mature beyond his years and knows what play needs to be made on every possession. Cool and calm under pressure he rises up to big moments. Where is the stat for clutch? Paolo faced way more double teams than any other player in the nation last year and was still able to perform at a high level and execute an offense and limit mistakes (although turnovers can spike at times when he handles the ball most of the time). I want to give Jalen another player who could be a 1st option in case he ever went down and provide a different skill package to keep defenses on their heels. Its not about some tug of war between players and who will defer to who, but the ability to share the heavy load of an NBA season and provide your team the gravity to keep rhythm and pace if any core players go down. Paolo would feed Jalen and everyone else on the team so many easy buckets. This team is still way to early in the rebuild to start thinking about filling out with 3&D players. I want a guy who can run the half court on last possessions when necessary and create when it all breaks down.
