Democrats skeptical SCOTUS will save them in November

Huh? Who said anything about leaving their country? Besides you. That is extremely impractical for most people.

I've lived in Louisiana, S Caroline and Georgia. I didn't like those states. I left. I didn't expect millio s of people to conform to my way.

 

I'm going to emphasize again that even without this ruling while the odds greatly favored the GOP they do continue to hurt themselves by putting up candidates and issues that have little appeal outside of their base. A base that has been getting more radicalized.

If Republican candidates had been mostly focused on inflation and crime they could win broader support. Instead most appear to be focused on issues like that the 2020 election was stolen, Fauci should be fired (and or prosecuted), and that people at January 6th are freedom fighters. The MAGA base demands that but that alienates most outside of that base. The gamble is that their base will turnout while the opposition doesn't.

That changes if there is an issue that energizes the other side to turnout.

Even with this ruling people JD Vance might win in OH as that is much more of a Red State now but even without this ruling Walker is in trouble in GA and Kelly still held the advantage in AZ. This ruling will not help Ron Johnson in WI and other Republicans in purple states.

 

Likely many Republicans will be energized and if they push for a national ban that will energize their opposition further. Again the Republicans have already laid out a base strategy and not a broad based strategy. It won't take much of a swing in voter turnout for their strategy to fail.

 

Honestly we've been hearing this narrative for years. How the Republicans radical strategy will energize Democrats. Maybe it has, but it seems that it's energized its base as well. It's almost cult like. The middle of this country isn't as passionate about RvW as they are about their own economic interests, and the GOP is winning the PR war on those issues by a wide margin.

 

It's the same idea. Instead of trying to make it work someplace, you can leave and find someplace else. I'm not criticizing you, I'm just pointing out the irony of the arguments many make that people in those countries should try to stay there and make it work.

 

You are right, I'm probably looking too much into this article and giving it too much respect because it looks like the Dems are moving forward with this being a focus. I really think it's going to help in toss up states and some are being super pessimistic about it having no or little impact. This is a big issue and Democrats should make the GOP own it. The fact that the GOP is running away from owning it tells you everything you need to know about how they feel about it too. They know this hurts them, no one can be sure how much but people are also forgetting that if SCOTUS goes through with this...

Immediately it'll be banned in what...like 15 or so states? Every time a story comes out about a woman seeking abortion and she's criminalized, the GOP will have to own that. All the negative stories about the fallout from Roe the GOP will own that this year, next year, every year after that.

 

If every person in the world could move to any country in the world at any time, every country would have very different policies in government.

Currently in the United States, some of mens biggest problems is that women will not be allowed to have abortions. I would imagine the men in Nicaragua or N Korea wish that was the worst of their problems.

I might be going out on a limb here, but I would guess that vast majority of men in red states have much bigger issues than women not having abortions. It is overwhelmingly obvious skilled labor migrates towards the best job markets, thus the great divide between rural and urban america.

Its safe to say those who threaten to leave their state over problems that do not pertain to them are the same type of people who threaten to leave the US for Canada or some other fictitious utopia anytime their moron of choice isn't elected to POTUS. 99%+ of them never do it simply because its not in their best interest.

People will leave their homeland for economic reasons, not civil rights reasons.

 

Respectfully, I believe you are overgeneralizing.

Yes there are many who do come to the US or Europe for economic opportunity. In large part, because this is who let in - the best of the world and our process is somewhat designed to get those.

But many many people leave their homeland for safety reasons. Maybe not in the US where people have the wealth to have the luxury of movement, but you are right in one regard - people leaving the US because Trump is president is fine, but to hear them complain about is petty and annoying.

The people coming from a country like Honduras are not doing it for economic opportunity, but because they don't feel they will be alive, or that their children and wives are not safe.

 

In 2018 the economy was booming yet Republicans still did very poorly in the midterms. The antics of Trump and his supporters likely cost the Republican Senate majority losing both seats in GA.

 

This is what I think. The current economic issues favor Republicans and this Roe ruling won't really be on the radar for a lot of people in November however all outlooks show some sort of economic issues still plaguing voters at that time.

 

It's not a political mistake because it's Texas, which is very conservative and has a huge catholic Hispanic population.

I am not sure polling this far out from an election is great way to look at things, and getting rid of Roe will be a bit different than this law.

If clouds don't form this year they will never form because people just don't care.

 

Dude did you just miss the 20/20 election, 2 seats got flipped in GA.

You seem to want to look at worst case scenarios and not what has just happened.

You actually don't know if the middle of this country is passionate about RvW because it has never actually been threatened before and Republicans are currently losing support in generic ballots even with inflation being the way it is.

Its also more about Independents and suburban women than "republicans".

 

Georgia was a unique situation - a presidential election and an incredible politician named Stacey Abrams.

We're in a midterm year and historically the party with the presidency always takes a beating. Combine that with the inflation issues that are unlikely to abate anytime soon and the net result will be that Congress will be in the hands of Republicans.

 

Big city dems will start mobilizing when it directly impacts their lives. Most of them don't even bother voting until there's a Trump level event. They talk as is they did though..,

Dems might be the "majority" but their voter turnout sucks.

 

RoevWade is also a unique situation, and Abrams is possibly going to be on the ballot.

This is not about historically things, it's about you claiming Democrats do not get energized.

Anyway, if you like doing the doom and gloom thing, go right ahead, but you can't ignore what just happened in the last election cycle.

 

I'm just saying that even if you energize Dems, the middle of this country is going to swing towards R due to issues such as inflation. It's just my personal forecast, it has no meaning outside of that.