Speaking of the draft, I think that will lead to a domino of moves, once we get there. And some players will get cut. I know it's 20 rounds again this year, but will it go back to 40 (or even 30 rounds) in the near future?
I don’t expect a 40 round draft to ever come back. They may go beyond 20 but I would only expect that in the scenario where they have a single draft for both US and international amateurs.
Especially with the contraction of the Minor Leagues. I can see the US draft going to 25 rounds, maaaaybe 30 max. I doubt the International draft, if it comes to fruition, would be integrated into the domestic draft. Among other reasons, scouting is different, the prospects are far more raw, the pools have always been separate, and their "pre-draft" paths are different.
I have no idea if he is a genuine prospect or not, but I'm pulling for Franny so hard. Also, question for those that closely follow the minors, is Corey Julks a genuine prospect? Like is there a chance he makes it to the big league club? Apparently he's the son of my dad's mailman.
Not too much of a chance he makes this big league club right now, but there certainly is a chance he makes it to the majors. He seems like a fringy 4th outfielder type at the moment. Nothing about his profile jumps out at you. He's in AAA, so he's on the doorstep, not having a good season in the early going though.
It seems like we seldom have anyone in the MLB prospect top 10 list, but somehow mange to produce top rookies every year. Correa, Bregman, Alvarez, Tucker, Valdez, Garcia, Pena. Our farm system development must be top 3 in the league.
I prefer FanGraphs. They miss some guys, but almost every farm system produces guys. Correa, Bregman, Alvarez, Tucker, and Pena were highly touted by FanGraphs, and not every farm has these guys. Garcia and Valdez were moderate prospects by them if memory serves. During Luhnow's years, my opinion is that the Astros by far brought in the most prospect talent from draft, IFAs, and trades and were likely still the best if one took in draft position into question. The Astros are still living off guys Luhnow brought in, but the farm gets weaker every time someone gets promoted to the majors.
Correa/Bregman/Tucker were top 5 overall draft picks. That "success" was mostly a relic of being super shitty beforehand. The Astros do have a good scouting and development program but the low-signing bonus international sign-ees (Framber, Urquidy, Garcia) are the biggest area in scouting and development that the Astros have shown a significant competitive advantage. Alvarez was a massive scouting win. I consider Pena more of a development win. The system development team is definitely well above average but right now most of the big market teams have amazing development teams. The Dodgers have to be considered the best all around farm system. The Yankees consistently produce flame-throwing middle relievers. The Guardians for a while cranked out solid starting pitcher after starting pitcher.
The run Valdez is on to start the season is pretty wild - nearly a 20% BB% and a .300 ISO at 23. Tucker had far less success (while still being solid) at 22 in AAA and he didn't lose a year to COVID.
Valdez's k rate is high enough to temper expectations a bit (plus that .465 babip is bound to come down). But his walk rate and power combined with the fact that he has at least some defensive value bodes well for him as a potential future major league contributor. Given his lack of pedigree he'll have to prove it at every level, but he's on track to be in Sugar Land in a few weeks and be in the mix for a bench role next spring if there's one available. The last week+ was good for Pedro Leon, Yainer Diaz, and Miguel Palma. Couple of guys with big numbers who may be fool's gold: David Hensley has a babip over .400, and Victor Mascai is striking out 37.8% of the time. Ross Adolph, Michael Sandle, Nerio Rodriguez, and Will Wagner are 4 guys putting up really good slash lines with reasonable underlying k/babip numbers and are all worth tracking as potential breakout candidates. JC Correa, Mike Papierski, and Luis Santana are 3 guys whose numbers might be just bad luck.
I was just looking at the box score for Sugar Land. Matijevic had his 5th stolen base. That was a surprise to me. Paredes with another decent outing. 2IP, 0R, 1H, 1BB, 2K
One source for optimism for me is that even though Houston's farm is relatively weak compared to past years, they do seem to have the right kinds of prospects perculating in the system to replace the aging/outgoing players on their roster. Their current big league roster has 6 potential pending free agents: 1B Yuli Gurriel: Matijevic is the primary internal option, although Taylor Jones shouldn't be completely forgotten. Joe Perez is on the 40 man but appears to need more time. LF Michael Brantley: Matijevic and Leon could be in the mix here next spring. McKenna, Adolph, and Abreu are on the fringes of the conversation. UT Aledmys Diaz: Leon currently looks like a great fit to serve as Diaz's replacement, at least as an intro to the big leagues before taking over an everyday role. C Jason Castro: Korey Lee will likely be ready for a big league spot. SP Justin Verlander: Houston has 7 SP already on the big league roster (including McCullers) but Brown and Solomon both have looked worthy of a 2023 rotation spot. RP Rafael Montero: Dubin and Paredes look like they should be able to contribute next season, along with Blanco, Mushinski, and others. Houston will also likely look to upgrade from Goodrum, which Valdez, Matijevic, Hensley, and Yainer Diaz all look like potential bench bat options for next season. So while they will likely be looking for at least 1 big bat at 1b or LF from the outside, they should be able to fill the rest of their vacancies with cheap capable high upside internal options. Which is great for a farm ranked in the bottom tier of the league.
Mixing in some Astros with stuff grades Javier 60 Framber 60 Enoli Paredes 56 J.P. France 55 Neris 55 Seth Martinez 54 Shawn Dubin 51 Adam Morgan 50 Garcia 50 Montero 50 Jon Olczak 49 Hunter Brown 47 Verlander 45 (70 command) Urquidy 45 Parker Mushinski 43 Nick Hernandez 42 Chad Donato 41 Zac Rosscup 40 Jonathan Bermudez 40 Tyler Ivey 40 Jojanse Torres 37 Peter Solomon 36 Brandon Bielak 34 Josh James 33 Brett Conine 30 Odorizzi 30
