I'd add Taylor is getting RHBs out again. Taylor isn't going to look good in FIP or xFIP, but isn't going to give up many runs. He is going to have the occasional blast against him and isn't good for the heart as he does give up a few more walks and bloopers than most relievers.
I’ve had this as my ideal situation for a couple years now. I’d set it up as follows: JV/bullpen Javier/Brown/bullpen Framber/bullpen LMJ/Urquidy Garcia/bullpen. bullpen: Presley, Stanek, Neris, Maton, Montero, Abreu. 13 pitchers. Have to count on JV, Framber and Garcia to get you 5-7 innings and then bullpen guys to take it from there. The way that’s set up nobody from the oen would ever throw 3 days in a row, and nobody would probably ever go 3 days without pitching. Brown would probably be mirrored by Bielack for me down in the minors. They’d probably switch out some to keep innings off his arm. Odo traded for salary relief (I’ve never contended he’s overpaid- just that it’s stupid for us to pay him bc we don’t need him) in pursuit of a big bat at the deadline, Taylor traded for anything interesting because we don’t need him as Loogy’s aren’t really a weapon anymore. This translates in the playoffs to: JV and then 3 best bullpen arms LMJ/Brown/Javier (2 times through the lineup then 1 each) Framber, 3 best bullpen guys Garcia/Urquidy/all hands on deck. The upside is ace level performance in first 2 games, solid above average in game 3 all throughout and game 4 I don’t love, but I like that better than most teams pitching plan for game 4. If you want to use the Odo savings and 30+ million in money to get a TOR guy I’m listening, but probably prefer a stud hitting 1B at the deadline.
I don't know. Odorizzi decided to stop sucking and Javier is casually rocking a sub 1.00 ERA. Urquidy is the one who's the biggest mess right now. I wonder if they would temporarily put him in Javier's old role -- I'd be curious if his velocity would play up in shorter stints. If Lance is truly back in July, I wonder what they'll do. I'm sure they're monitoring Verlander -- if the team can build a division lead, maybe they let him skip a couple starts to keep his innings level manageable.
I do think this is the most talented bullpen Houston has had since at least 2010. At this point I have a high degree of confidence in all of Pressly, Neris, and Montero in late inning high leverage situations; basically I feel like Houston has 3 legit closers. I am also growing more comfortable with Abreu and Stanek; at a minimum I know they can throw strikes with elite velo. Maton may be the best of the whole bunch but he’s been mildly disappointing so far. If he gets going too he could be a 4th closer. And both lefties (Taylor and Mushinski) have been pretty effective and don’t show any signs that there is an impending collapse.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/05/18-potential-starting-pitcher-trade-targets-this-summer.html Nobody too exciting. If McCullers comes back strong and Verlander stays healthy I don’t expect Houston to address the rotation at the deadline. Honestly hard to pin down what impact move the Astros make at the deadline unless Meyers or Gurriel don’t hit in which case adding a 1B or CF makes sense.
I wouldn't call Urquiddy a "big mess". His career numbers are much better (including pressure packed playoffs) when healthy. He's certainly a viable #3 starter when he's clicking... on a team that really doesn't need him to be better than a 4 or 5. I don't have a lot of concerns about him or Garcia. And Javier pitching efficiently past 5 innings has been a welcome site... still baffles me in regards to the yo-yo they kept throughout last season (unless they were trying to nurse an undisclosed injury). At some point there will be guys held out either due to injury or as a precaution. Its a long ass season. But they're in the thick of the Tampa-like strategy of simply having multi-inning elite arms in the stable to supplement core starters who can go at least 5 max effort elite. The pitching staff always excited me for this year more than the lineup. The bullpen being more versatile than expected thus far is furthering that excitement. (along with MLB using baseballs that aren't made out of the stuff they cork bats with).
I like the position players a little better for the regular season, though with more defensive value and a little less offensive value than we are used to having. If the pitchers are healthy, I really like the Astros pitching for the postseason.
I will feel really comfortable with our pitching if McCullers and Verlander are healthy for the post season. Verlander, McCullers, Garcia, and one of Valdez, Urquidy, Javier and Odorizzi being our 4th starter. Pressley, Neris, Montero, Maton, and Stanek with the remaining starters is a pretty good bullpen.
I guess its a little bit more about seeing these young guys develop/blossom, along with a 2 year hiatus from JV... vs. most of the knowns in the lineup (Altuve, Bregman, Yordan, Tucker) and the fact that we will rarely see the same lineup/order (even when healthy) more than 2-3 games in a row. Also trying to hold back getting overly excited about Pena (but couldn't be more impressed by him thus far)... as with more AB's, pitchers will start exploiting some weakness', and then the adjustment phase commences... but he would be the one x-factor that would further the "must see" ability of this lineup.
I gotta ask, what was so special about the 2010 bullpen? Wasn't that the year Matt Lindstrom failed as a closer and Tim Byrdak was our fireman?
Got to be going over all possibilities for a bat. Or two. Maybe 1B and OF. Even if Meyers hits or Yuli turns it around it’s still be nice to have down the stretch in case of injuries, multiple PH in the playoffs for anemic catcher etc. I say this with the understanding that usually an expensive veteran in his walk year that’s a bat can be had pretty cheaply. Think of all the JD Martinez, Nelson Cruz etc type moves where you look up and say- that wasn’t much.
Oh nothing special about that just saying that’s as far back as I can think in the moment. Some of the 90s or early aughts BP were pretty good.
Are you too young to remember Lisge to Dotel to Wagner. That was awesome. Felt like we just needed 6 inning and 3 runs from the starter and we were going to win.
It's interesting to compare the ratio of reliever WAR to starter WAR over the years. Top Astros fWAR for relievers in a single season is 2018 at 7.5 The top for starters is 1999 at 21.7 (2018 was at 21.1). The top WAR for relievers during the Dotel/Wagner/Lidge era was 1999 at 5.0. Goes to show that even today how much more valuable starters are than relievers.
That 2018 pen was good: McHugh, Rondon, Harris, Pressly, Sipp, Giles, Osuna, Peacock, Smith, and Devenski. Comparing that group to this group: Javier is McHugh; push Neris is Rondon; push Stanek is Giles; push Pressly is Pressly; slight advantage 2018 Taylor is Sipp; slight advantage 2018 Montero is Osuna; push Abreu is Peacock Maton is Harris; advantage 2018 Blanco is Smith; push Mushinski is Devenski; slight advantage 2022 (Devenski wasn’t very good in 2018) So basically if everybody stays healthy and Maton and Pressly come around, this could be Houston’s best pen ever.
I think best pen ever it is really important to define "best pen in what sense?" If you are talking about regular season then having a bunch of guys who can throw innings, answer the bell and not be terrible is pretty important. If you are talking about a playoff series I don't particularly give a **** about anyone outside of the top 3 relievers and maybe your swing man b/c that's your path to victory and it's your path to victory every night. Give me Lidge/Dotel/Wagner all day every day. You also have to consider that back then you didn't have as many arms and they didn't pitch as many innings so the WAR stats don't really matter. I'd like to see high leverage only stats as that's about the upper tier quality of your bullpen and those are the guys that are going to be pitching the playoff innings. But yeah- quantity has a definite quality of its own over the course of 162...
I think you might be underestimating the quality of the 2018 pen. The 2003 team had one reliever with a FIP- (10 IP minimum) less than 70 (Wagner at 62), while the 2018 pen had seven such relievers - Pressly, Giles, Sipp, Harris, McHugh, Osuna, and Rondon. The 2018 club had four relievers with a FIP- under 60 as well with Pressly leading the way at 37.
This kinda helped the bullpen in 2018.... Verlander 214 IP Keuchel 204.2 IP Cole 200.1 IP Morton 167 IP McCullers 128.1 IP
