1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

NCAA Tournament Prospect Tracker

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by finsraider, Mar 17, 2022.

  1. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2011
    Messages:
    10,030
    Likes Received:
    13,257

    If you draft Banchero I think you commit to trading Sengun.

    Despite the fact that Sengun is playing the 5 now, I think they ultimately both play the forward spot and there's no playing them together on either end of the court. Neither can spread the floor and neither is gonna do much to protect the rim / paint.
     
  2. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Member

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2010
    Messages:
    29,655
    Likes Received:
    10,137
    Chet #1
    Kai Sotto #17
    Yikes!!!
     
  3. MrButtocks

    MrButtocks Member

    Joined:
    May 29, 2005
    Messages:
    7,544
    Likes Received:
    5,769
    Who are you talking to? I've haven't mentioned Wood, nor did I say we should draft Banchero. I simply replied to your post about Trevion Williams and you brought up Banchero. I can like a prospect and not necessarily think he's a good fit for the Rockets, just like you seem to like Trevion Williams. Is it hypocrisy that you like TW even though he doesn't address any of our defensive issues? I don't think so.

    Also, when I talked about Trevion Williams' defense you got confused and thought I was talking about Mark Williams. Now you put forth arguments I've never made and complain about hypocrisy. You've lost the ability to keep track of conversations. Good luck in the future.
     
  4. Ekiu

    Ekiu Member

    Joined:
    May 8, 2013
    Messages:
    835
    Likes Received:
    541
    The Boozer comparison just doesn't make sense. It's like you only looked at body type and said yea same height same weight... He is Boozer. That the problem with these comparison when in actuality you talking about Duke.

    What is one thing Coach K is know for really making popular at Duke?

    He implements those large big wings like Hill & Deng.

    In recent years Parker, Tatum, Ingram, Zion(outlier freak and more of a post) and now Banchero. These guys resemble Banchero in recruit profile and impact. All played the 4 with Tatum being most similar (Tatum was also often compared to Melo).

    Of those names whose game could you point to and say it didn't translate next level? Parker? He washed out with injuries.

    Banchero shot distribution:
    48.4% - at the rim
    26.2% - mid range
    25.4% - above break

    Wendell Moore for comparison:
    46.7% - at the rim
    19.1% - mid range
    34.3% - above break

    Banchero is a large wing with excellent footwork that can abuse the post. He is huge but he doesn't play like Boozer.

    If you were to compare him to a none Duke pro. Paul Pierce propensity for the post game (face up/back to basket) and utilization of pivot/quick dribble into a shot would be a better choice.
     
    jiggyfly, CXbby and MrButtocks like this.
  5. Ekiu

    Ekiu Member

    Joined:
    May 8, 2013
    Messages:
    835
    Likes Received:
    541
    I feel like the Rockets are headed into the new era of positionless ball.

    Maybe a 2-2-2-4-4 or 2-2-4-4-4? 2-2-4-4-5?

    Similar to how Milwaukee plays a 2-2-5-5-5 or 2-2-4-5-5.

    You have to wait to see them on the court if it doesn't work trade the lesser. It worked out for Den & Philly
     
  6. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    10,351
    Likes Received:
    13,302
    49.0% in the paint-rim
    24.5% in mid range
    https://247sports.com/college/duke/...s-out-according-to-FiveThirtyEight-177675005/

    If you want to make him a wing in the NBA, good luck with that.

    Tate, Draymond, Scottie Barnes, Siakim, and a host of many stronger and
    quicker but shorter than Banchero are going to hamper his shot
    yet guard him well in the post.

    He is Boozer with a greater distance of shot and slightly better passer.

    I was told by many here that Evan Mobley could put the ball on the floor
    and drive like a guard. I said BS. He didn't show me those guard skills
    so much this year. He mostly let the guards drive and cleaned the glass
    behind them.

    I comp'd Jalen Green to MJ or Kobe before the draft and I think I'm correct.

    I said Zion would have weight problems resulting in back and/or leg problems.
    I feel I was correct on that one.

    I'm saying Banchero is a Boozer of our day with greater passing and 3-pt range.
    You don't have to agree. More power to you.

    Again I'm not against the Rockets taking Boozer....I mean Banchero #4....
    Boozer was a fine good player. But the high volume of mid range is
    counter to the the Rockets no mid range shot philosophy.
     
  7. MystikArkitect

    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2006
    Messages:
    14,128
    Likes Received:
    22,952
    If the Rockets get the 1st or 2nd pick this forum is going to be an absolute bloodbath.
     
  8. Ekiu

    Ekiu Member

    Joined:
    May 8, 2013
    Messages:
    835
    Likes Received:
    541
    That article you shared is from December and accounts for about 8 of the 39 games Banchero played.

    The numbers I posted are for the complete season.

    I don't care if I'm right. I'm just stating facts on the Duke players that where in Banchero's role previously. Seeing how they played in the same system under the same coach in similar roles it's pretty easy to distinguish.

    Fyi people said Pierce was too slow he did a fine job guarding the Lebron's of the world. I'll trust what Duke saw in Banchero... Track record at that position isn't bad.

    Morey/D'antoni don't work here anymore...
    https://therookiewire.usatoday.com/2022/03/02/rockets-jalen-green-mid-range-game/
    The mid range is something Jalen has been working on and utilizing it coincided with his end of year scoring outburst.
     
  9. D-rock

    D-rock Member

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2006
    Messages:
    40,743
    Likes Received:
    64,232
    My bad I misunderstood you.

    And I'm not really a Trevion Williams fan.

    I am a fan of Mark Williams.

     
  10. D-rock

    D-rock Member

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2006
    Messages:
    40,743
    Likes Received:
    64,232
    I was comparing their NBA positions.

    Enough with the gaslighting.

    You're afraid of thrown tomatoes too aren't you.
     
  11. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    10,351
    Likes Received:
    13,302
    I don't fear post ups play type in the NBA as it often results as a mid range shot.....
    the most I efficient shot in basketball.....stats over the last 10 years back that up.

    All the video I see on Banchero:
    *I would put a wing on him
    *Dare him to shoot the 3 (3 lousy 3-pt shots won't kill my team....not at 34%)
    *Guard him to drive right (force him left)
    *Have help defense come from his left (stay on his right side shooting)

    **From all the video Ive seen is he likes to drive right, but looks a lot less sure
    of himself driving left. Often when forced to go left he circles back to try to get
    the shot off.

    All full season stats show he prefers a mid range shot. Boozer also
    preferred mid range shots. I'm not impressed. But the Rockets staff
    can work with him. #4 on my board

    NBA is a different beast....better scouting reports and better talent. Many guards
    go through highschool and college without getting figured out......then they get to
    the pros and teams learn who favors what and when.
     
  12. D-rock

    D-rock Member

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2006
    Messages:
    40,743
    Likes Received:
    64,232
    Pfeifer does very good job.

    Insightful.


     
    #3192 D-rock, Apr 29, 2022
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2022
  13. J.R.

    J.R. Member

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2008
    Messages:
    113,993
    Likes Received:
    175,602
    https://theathletic.com/3277409/2022/04/28/rockets-draft-banchero-duke/

    Between now and the 2022 NBA Draft, teams will be doing extensive homework on the next crop of players looking to make the jump to the league. Duke’s Paolo Banchero has long been heralded as a top prospect for his combination of size, scoring and ballhandling. But is he the best player in the draft? Where does he rank on Houston’s big board? What can he bring to the table if the Rockets ultimately draft him on June 23?

    To answer these questions and to get a better picture of exactly who Banchero is, The Athletic’s Brendan Marks, who covers both Duke and North Carolina, joins us for an important and insightful conversation.

    Kelly Iko: Thanks again for doing this, Brendan.

    The NBA playoffs are in full swing, but the Rockets are already in offseason mode, and their full attention has turned to the upcoming draft and the crop of players presumed to go at the top.

    Duke’s Paolo Banchero has been mentioned heavily for months. Rockets fans are somewhat familiar with him and his game — especially after March Madness — but you’ve gotten the privilege of covering him closely. How would you describe who Banchero is to the average person?

    Brendan Marks: Happy to do this, Kelly. As for describing Banchero, I go back to what Duke and its staff referred to him as: a big wing. The dude might be 6-foot-10 and 250 pounds, so he could overwhelm people physically in college, but he’s also got the movement skills — and all-around offensive game — of a wing. Duke didn’t necessarily have one true point guard this season, instead preferring to use multiple ballhandlers … and that worked in large part because of Banchero, who could grab a defensive rebound and initiate transition offense himself.

    But that’s the crux of why Banchero is so good: He can do a little bit of everything offensively. Per Synergy, he averaged better than one point per possession (PPP) in five different offensive scenarios — transition, cutting, offensive putbacks, handoffs and as a roller — as well as 0.964 PPP overall across the offensive gamut. He’s a capable ballhandler, passer and screener, and given his time at Duke, he’s comfortable sharing the ball with other high-level players. If there is one offensive weakness to Banchero’s game right now, it’s his shooting; he made just 33.8 percent of his 3s this season. Where his shooting eventually falls — he did make 10 of his 19 3s during the NCAA Tournament — should determine his eventual ceiling. If it’s closer to 38 percent than, say, 33 to 35 percent, then we’re probably talking about a future All-Star.

    I figure most NBA teams, especially ones picking in the lottery, could use a versatile scorer like Banchero, but how do you envision him fitting with Houston’s current core?

    Iko: I think when you have a player like the Rockets have in Jalen Green, a talented and explosive guard, you want to pair him with good frontcourt talent. Even though Houston is in the beginning stages of a rebuild, Green has a year of experience under his belt. The front office knows he’s a franchise centerpiece; it’s all about building around that now.

    With that being said, Banchero slots right in. Because of his ability to handle the ball, he’d easily fit into a roster that wants to prioritize playmaking and offensive variety. Looking around the league, those tandems are generally successful. One example is the New Orleans Pelicans. It’s not a clean like-for-like — CJ McCollum is a different type than Green, and Brandon Ingram is smaller than Banchero — but it’s a scoring guard and scoring wing with playmaking ability.

    All in all, I think the fit would be good. Both could play off each other, and Stephen Silas could stagger lineups to feature their ballhandling, coupled with Kevin Porter Jr.

    How did Banchero handle usage at Duke? How do you see it translating to the NBA playing alongside better players?

    Marks: Well, Banchero saw a ton of usage, so I imagine he’d be comfortable with it in the NBA, too. He took 26.5 percent of Duke’s shots while he was on the court, per KenPom, the most on the team by a substantial margin. (No one else surpassed 21.4 percent.) He also averaged the most field-goal attempts on the team (13.2 per game) while playing 33 minutes a night, so that sort of role won’t be foreign. Banchero had a weird issue with cramping early in the season, especially during Duke’s November wins over Kentucky and Gonzaga, but the training staff sorted that out as the season went on.

    There are any number of games and clips that show the sorts of things Banchero can do with (and against) better players, but two, in particular, accentuate the strengths in his game. The first, from Duke’s Sweet 16 win over Texas Tech, shows his comfort handling in transition and savvy finishing against a superior defense. (The Red Raiders had the nation’s No. 1 adjusted defensive efficiency at the time, per KenPom.) Banchero’s teammate AJ Griffin — whom we’ll talk about in a later piece — gets the defensive rebound and passes to Banchero, who immediately runs out in transition. He beats two Texas Tech defenders down the floor, surveying the defense as he goes and identifying a crease through the middle of the lane that the Red Raiders’ no-middle defense usually prohibits. But Banchero immediately recognizes the opening and takes it, driving straight to the hoop. His defender can’t keep up, and as soon as he tries to overextend in front of Banchero’s driving lane, the freshman star spins back left — the opposite of his normal spin, and against the direction he’d been moving — to deftly finish a touch layup.

    Vid
     
    joshuaao, D-rock, Ekiu and 2 others like this.
  14. J.R.

    J.R. Member

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2008
    Messages:
    113,993
    Likes Received:
    175,602
    The second play, from Duke’s Final Four loss to North Carolina, showcases more of Banchero’s quickness, but also his simultaneous strength. In this one, he receives the pass inside the arc near the left corner, and his mind already is made up about what he’s going to do. He jab-fakes to create space from North Carolina’s Armando Bacot, drives right and then drop-steps into a spin move away from help defenders in the lane. As he does, he seals Bacot (a 6-foot-10, 240-pound junior) with his own strength and finishes off the glass for the layup. It’s a series of short, premeditated movements, but it shows Banchero’s handle, driving ability and absurd quickness relative to his size.

    Vid

    People that size aren’t supposed to be able to move that way. Banchero’s the exception. Now, if his shooting never fully comes around, how would that impact his fit alongside Green, Porter and the rest of Houston’s younger players?

    Iko: I don’t think 34 percent from deep is a deal-breaker, although the NBA line is farther back, and we don’t know how that will translate.

    I will say this, though. For a player like Banchero, given his size and ability to reasonably space to floor, there are ways to leverage his accuracy. Take Porter, for example. He shot 33.5 and 31.1 percent from 3 in 2019-20 and 2020-21, respectively. This year, he became a lethal catch-and-shoot option, finishing the year better than 40 percent in that realm. Overall, he was a 37.5 percent 3-point shooter this season, a big jump. One thing about Silas’ offense is that it allows for ballhandlers to play off one another and create offense for one another. Banchero could benefit from playing alongside Green and Porter, and it’s possible the shots for him become more efficient.

    I think Banchero is a decent enough shooter already that getting time and reps in a pro setting will make him better. KJ Martin isn’t considered a shooter, but he actually is right at 36 percent for his short career. Banchero will be fine. My other question, however, is on the other side of the ball. How is he as a defender? Is he switchable? Can he play in different schemes? He has the size to be serviceable right now, but defense is much more than that.

    Marks: You’re right, Kelly, and right now, I’d say that’s a pretty good word for Banchero’s defense: serviceable. It’s not mind-blowingly good, but it’s not bad, either. Usually, it’s fine. Given his size, Banchero right now has better defensive fundamentals on the interior as compared to the perimeter, but he’s shown flashes of being solid out there, too. Take this clip as proof, from the last two minutes of Duke’s NCAA Tournament win over Michigan State. Duke is up by one, desperately needing a stop, and Banchero ends up matched against Joey Hauser on the perimeter. Hauser initially drives right from near the top of the arc, but Banchero slides his feet brilliantly and uses his core strength to muscle Hauser off his line. Then, when Hauser eventually spins back left, Banchero is able to stay with him, hugging Hauser’s hip while anticipating the shot. When Hauser finally goes for the layup, Banchero makes his move, extending his full reach to block the shot and send Duke back the other way in transition

    Vid

    Admittedly, that’s one of the better defensive plays Banchero made all season. He blocked 2.7 percent of the shots in his vicinity, per KenPom, which isn’t awful but also isn’t something to really write home about. (Duke teammate Mark Williams posted an 11.5 percent block rate, comparatively, which was 17th-best nationally.) Banchero also is pretty good about not fouling, only committing 2.3 per 40 minutes, according to KenPom, but that was against (typically smaller) college players.

    I’ve got three concerns about Banchero’s defense, none of which are make-or-break, but all of which he could improve on:

    1. He doesn’t close out well on perimeter shooters, whether it’s poor effort or being out of position prior to the shot.
    2. He doesn’t have the elite foot speed to stay stride-for-stride with smaller, quicker guards and wings.
    3. He’s not being as aggressive as possible, going for potential steals, deflections and blocks — whether that’s because of a fear of fouling or something else.

    Duke went zone at times this NCAA Tournament because of some man-to-man issues, and while more of those had to do with Williams, Banchero struggled at times, too. But again, those are all things I think he can — and will — improve upon at the next level.
     
    D-rock, red5rocket, Ekiu and 2 others like this.
  15. groovemachine

    groovemachine Member

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2006
    Messages:
    3,113
    Likes Received:
    4,865

    While I’m open to trading Sengun if it returns a 3rd ‘star’ to pair with Green/2022 pick, I’m not sure I follow the logic that says Banchero and Sengun can’t co-exist. They are both super skilled, versatile bigs. Add a rim protector as your third big and that sounds like a great front court rotation.
     
    jiggyfly and Ekiu like this.
  16. MrButtocks

    MrButtocks Member

    Joined:
    May 29, 2005
    Messages:
    7,544
    Likes Received:
    5,769
    I like Sengun, but he already has a hard time switching on the perimeter. Banchero's questionable in that regard as well. Adding a rim protector isn't easy and they usually can't switch very well either (see Gobert and Myles Turner). Super skilled, versatile bigs are great but defensive versatility is probably even more important. Plus Sengun isn't a great shooter and plays inside so any rim protector we add needs to space the floor.
     
    groovemachine and D-rock like this.
  17. Ekiu

    Ekiu Member

    Joined:
    May 8, 2013
    Messages:
    835
    Likes Received:
    541
    [​IMG]
    In GSW's first championship run even Curry's mid range frequency was ~24.3%(~21.2%)

    Some random stars listed below('21-'22 frequency of midrange):
    LBJ - 41.3%
    CP3 - 40.9%
    Booker - 33.0%
    Tatum - 25.7%
    Ingram - 41.3%
    Durant - 36.5%
    Klay - 25.1%
    Giannis - 16.7%
    Middleton - 27.1%

    Harden - 5.2%

    That's a lot of Boozers.
    Heat map shows he shoots better on the left side of the court than right side... I don't see drive data but you could assume, yea I know not great, that left side of the court would be a drive going left.

    Anyway if I counted correctly Banchero is 16-26 from corner 3's(61.5%). Small sample size but I think he will be fine with spacing. Jabari is 12-26 on corner 3's.
     
  18. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2011
    Messages:
    10,030
    Likes Received:
    13,257
    In the short term, you may be right, but I just can't see them on the floor together on either end of the court because both are poor defenders and both are limited shooters & your rim protector can't play 48 minutes .... and as I've said before, that's Sengun playing the Forward spot and not Center. For that to happen he's got to improve as a shooter.

    It's highly doubtful that you are keeping both players when it comes time for their second contracts because they are so similar in strengths and faults.

    I like watching Sengun's personality & highlights just as much as anyone but I just don't see him as being a foundational piece for several reasons and I'm sure this isn't a popular opinion ....

    1) he's just as apt to commit a turnover as he is to complete one of those highlight reel plays - assist to turnover rate 2.6-2.0. with a turnover rate of 18.8. That's literally one in five possessions ending in a turnover.

    2) despite the effort, he's atrocious defensively. Not long enough to be a rim protector & reaches too much on the perimeter. I don't buy him being the listed 6'10".

    3) Then there's the shooting ..... .248 from 3. So much for spacing.

    Comparing him to Jokic is silly when you compare the numbers .... and their size.


    We crucified Jalen Green for similar stats early in the season .... but there's a thread claiming Alperen Sengun is the Rockets best player.
     
  19. MystikArkitect

    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2006
    Messages:
    14,128
    Likes Received:
    22,952
    Watching Jokic get dragged into space by Curry is my biggest fear with Alperen. They were taking Jokic off the floor during defensive possessions in *crunch* time. I dont care how many triple doubles you have. That just can't happen. Gobert is the same thing. Giannis is different because he's an athletic freak.
     
    D-rock likes this.
  20. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2017
    Messages:
    10,351
    Likes Received:
    13,302
    You are still hung up on the Boozer comp.... But you didn't read where I said different eras. Less three point shooting back then. Boozer wasn't asked shoot 3's or dribble. More spacing now.

    But if you look at the Boozer videos he shoots
    20 footer long 3's.....which is where Banchero would be shooting if he was in the NBA this year.
    You are looking at that 34% college percentage 3 to be around 24% like Evan Mobley was. Nobody is going to guard him tight at the 3-pt line. Which he needs to drive.

    Jabari on the other hand took 5 a game and most contested because Auburn didn't have guards breaking down squat. Jabari with Porter/Green slicing and dicing is going to average a ton if he averaged more points than Chet and Banchero as
    just a jump shooter guarded as a number 1 option. Porter and Green and Josh Christopher are going to demand the gravity of the defense which will allow spot up shooting 6'10" Jabari free to cut and slash to the basket. Getting his tall frame with momentum to the rim for lob action.

    What you fail to understand is that we got Sengun for the role of PF/Center.....I need Jabari
    to fill the void at height at SF originally. Keep your Banchero as a SF stuff...I'm not hearing it. There is a reason teams don't sport 250 pound players up and down the rotation.

    A mid range shot is the same whether the player puts the ball on the ground first or just catch and shoots it. Still ends up the least efficient shot in the game as the end result, whether it be by Banchero or the mid range monster Boozer. I doubt CP3 shot that many mid range shots as a Rocket. We are talking about playing for the Rockets not Warriors or Bucks. Art of War: know they enemy, know thyself.
     
    #3200 ApacheWarrior, Apr 29, 2022
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2022

Share This Page