The Boozers comps seriously make no sense. Paolo is a pnr BALL HANDLER. Show me one instance that Boozer has done that in his entire career lmao
I have Chet as a cheap knock off of Durant because of parts of his game plus the body frame with narrow shoulders. Is Chet as fluid? No Is Chet as quick off the dribble shooting? No Is Chet blessed with the "It factor?" Not so much Can Durant play defense? You bet, very much underappreciated by many. But can Chet drive and score at all three tiers, transition, FT's, finish, demand a team game plan and scheme against him had core as they do Durant......you bet. Plus be a good help defender. Mirror images of themselves, they are not. Chet has that going right, spin off the defender, drive down the lane, and either finger roll or dunk ability that Giannis and Ben Simmons can pull off. It's hard to defend since they cover so much ground and their wingspans go on forever. The only fear I have with Chet is his body makeup. Kyphosis or hunchback can be a sign of precursor brittle bones due to lack of calcium over time. Many of my clients with osteoporosis, which is due to a calcium deficiency growing up, tend to have kyphosis. Therefore my worries of Chet doing that spin move and an injury incurring.
Semi-tangible topic. Are you seeing cervical kyphosis in younger patients more frequently? I’m seeing a lot more muscular issues around the area, it honestly seems it’s from always head down in phones. Levator scapulae issues and trap issues.
Yes, I have Banchero as a Carlos Boozer. Videos are not much different. Both are more or less a power game. Banchero a better passer and shooter for distance. People may be putting a little too much relish on Banchero? But I'll take him at number 4
Have you compared some of Boozers defensive metrics with reputation guys like KG? Just curious. His DWS and defensive rating are nothing to scoff at if that is Banchero's defensive comp obviously KG IS a better defender I just found it odd that it would be used as some negative, but it was interesting to sift through the data. Like you stated Paolo is much more dynamic on offense as a play creator and will get to the free throw line more. Plus Boozer never took 3 pointers.You think there may be 3 better players in this draft and thats cool you're entititled to have your opinion as we all are. It should be fun to see how it shakes out. edit: have you also noticed the amount of double teams Banchero had to deal with compared to Chet or Jabari?
@Verbal Christ WS metrics have never been my favorite advanced stat. one of my least favorites actually - somewhat similar to +/- in that sense, but i think definitely useful nonetheless as a metric relative to other members on the same team and to other players on similarly good/bad teams, but even than requires SOOOOOO much context. Regarding KD's dws in college. KD was a dominant college player obviously. His ws metrics are so high, in part, because he played 36 mpg. In college. Where they play 40 minute games. Chet has a higher dws and overall ws per minute (and comparable ows/minute). Which really brings ups the bigger issue. THE ISSUE when it comes to Chet. Can he stay on the court? Injury, fatigue, whatever... 25 mpg is not what you want out of a top lotto pick ultimately. If I had clarity on that answer, and the answer was yes, he can give you 35 mpg+... id have no hesitation taking him #1. Though to be somewhat fair to him, Jabari only played 28 mpg (to Chet's 26 mpg...Paolo put in 33 mpg... though as a result all his stats would be more "inflated" so to speak). Jabari seems like the safest pick bar none. Potentially not the upside of either Chet or Paolo but not Chet's size/injruy/stay on the court risk and not Paolo's defense/ballstopping/bball iq'ish risk... :shrug
Some context. Early season game, Holmgren was still 3rd option. Both Timme and Holmgren were in foul trouble early in 1st half and played timid 2nd half. Game won by only 3 points. Mark Williams was a beast with FIVE blocks in just one half of play. Banchero 3ball was falling and he had great offensive game. But his recurring cramping issues was on full display.
I really like him. Definitely a tweener 4, but unlike Milsap he can shoot the 3. His defense and rebound are very good. I really like him if guys like Mark Willams and Eason are off the board at 17. Seems like he’s being underrated but he could be one of the steals of this draft.
It took Paul a while but he eventually developed a 3PT shot. It actually correlated with him making his all-star appearances too. The first year Milsap made on avg 1 three per game (.358%) was his first all-star game in 2014 at 28 years old.
No negativity meant to either poster, but I always find it funny that Chet is the one that gets knocked for body concerns, but when their teams played head-to-head, Paolo was the one that had issues.
There are no guarantees, we have seen guys that were pretty damn close (O'Neal/Robinson/Magic). Having said all of that, Holmgren is about as close to a guarantee that you are going to find on the defensive end of the court. He impacts the game defensively in many, many different ways. He is an exceptional help defender, he plays angles very well, he has an elite second step and excellent instincts. He has a massive wingspan (reports from Gonzaga are that it even larger than 7'6"). Defensively he is going to be an impact player if he stays healthy. He is very thin, but the NBA is even less physical than the NBA. Holmgren also has a strong core and is not easily bumped out of the post as a defender. Will be struggle against Jokic and Embiid early? Probably but not anymore so than other defenders. If there are any questions about Chet it is offensively. He has shown he can shoot very well from the perimeter, he finishes at an elite rate inside, has soft hands, cuts very well and he also has shown the ability to score in transition and he draws fouls. He has at times taken his man one on one and scored, but not consistently. Still, even if he DOESN'T ever do that, you are looking at a prime Bill Walton type player that fits the modern game perfectly. Personally I am not concerned about how good or talented Holmgren is, he has the highest upside in this draft. If anything I am concerned about how well he adjusts to an 80 game schedule. The skill level and style of play between Holmgren and Poku is massively different, and the level of play and performance is reflective of that. Kevin Durant had one of the best college seasons in 40 years, so I don't compare Holmgren or anyone else to that standard.
Chet did wear down some as the season went on and you could see it was impacting his performance. He tends to play all out, and constantly hustles so I get the concern and it is one I have for him EARLY in his career but it isn't big enough to impact his draft status IMO. As for Banchero, he is chiseled and massive but we have seen players with that body type struggle to stay healthy or on the court. Injuries happen to all types.
He doesn't just take wildly deep 3's, but he is also on a team with HORRENDOUS spacing because of the size they are inside, and he has another guard that couldn't do much except pass, which really limited the role for Ivey. Ivey is the type of guy that has the ability to go nuclear for a 6-10 minute span of time like Harden, Curry, Lillard and Kyrie have in the past. I love Ivey.
His shot is a little unusual. I am less concerned with him because he is so incredibly quick and has a nearly 7'0" wingspan. He does not take a lot of mid range shots, some of it could be his mechanics but some of it is the spacing as well. He usually went to the corner to get around his man because of the spacing issues. The way I look at it, he is 6'4" with a strong body, he has a 7'0" wingspan and is very quick, has really good body control, is explosive off the ground and an improving shot - players like that end up being VERY good. Couple that with the terrible spacing and his competitive nature and you have a real shot at a near franchise type scoring combo guard. He has good court vision as well, he just doesn't seem completely comfortable yet.
No I find defense stats deceptive. Much about who your teammates are next to you (the player). Boozer was listed as center...Battier and Dunleavy next to him. Banchero listed as F....Mark the Eraser Williams and Wendell Moore helping out. A lot of zone in those days.....more man to man now I would say. Players get more credit for DWS now.
I agree. Even the creators of some of the sexy "defensive" metrics criticize their own data with comments about the difficulty of quantifying defensive impacts. With that said it does offer a barometer of sorts especially when nitpicking prospects that may be closer in skill levels albeit spread into different aspects. For example shouting out Boozer when assessing Bancheros defense isnt the end of the world for a supporter like me because if you compare those same metrics with Boozers contemporaries of the time they stack up nicely - and yet the Mandela Effect here tries to paint him as net negative defender using that supposed bad reputation. I am in the opinion that Chet is more conditioned to run and stay on the court than Paolo due to his lighter weight. I have not forgotten that cramps and losing like 10 pounds in sweat was an issue for Paolo early on and could continue to be. I believe Paolo could lean down some to help him. I think Chet is an ultra aggressive defender and with that mind frame he has a tendency to foul. A bunch of his defensive highlights this year were fouls IMO. The Arkansas game drove that home for me because that team went into the game with the game plan to attack Chet and put him into foul trouble. It worked. I see NBA players doing the same thing. He can stay on the court if he can tighten up and play more disciplined, I cant help but see him as the epitome of a 3&D player right now with some dribble drive ability in transition. He's the ultimate tweener. Is he a wing or a big? Interestingly enough I see both Chet and Jabari as the higher upside guys even with my support of Paolo, but so many things have to go right and there has to be a long term plan for them to develop. I think Paolo does have the lower floor maybe, but he will be ready to contribute as a hub and offensive fulcrum from day 1 while his defense and 3 point shooting improve. I like his leadership and knack for never playing down to his competition. I think he would mesh well with Jalen and give the team another captain that could steer the ship in spurts. I think the two man game between him and Sengun could be special. Would he thrive more with a rim protector like he did with Williams? Sure who wouldnt? But he possesses the highest BBall IQ out of the 3 big guys IMO another aspect of the game that is hard to put into a stat line. I've played centrist all along, but when I start reading really strange narratives and guys somewhat brushing off and discrediting Paolo only to make some false presumptions about the other guy I have to try and make sense of it.
Paolo had cramp issues in the Kentucky game and in the Gonzaga game and then never dealth with them again. Just to be clear. Does that mean they are gone for good? Of course not. Paolo walked onto the Duke campus and took over that team. Not by some strong arm volume chucking method. The other 5 star recruits he played with deferred and gravitated to him - upperclassmen who will be thought of highly in the draft by the way. The same type of gravity that makes so many teams have to double team Paolo compared to both Chet and Jabari. Is Timme better than Williams? Will Timme be drafted ahead of ANY of the Duke players? Yet Chet didnt command that team and was perfectly fine playing 2nd and 3rd fiddle and "knowing his role". I just want a little more ability to take over. Especially as a top 3 pick. Foul trouble seems to be a recurring theme with Chet Holmgren.
