Of the players are close, same talent tier (BPA), then fit matters. Jabari is most plug and play of top 3. He can play in any system next to any franchise player. The next most plug and play is Chet at PF, who has proven to be ultra efficient with minimum usage. Banchero is the least plug and play because his success requires him to have the ball. He is a high usage player. How is this so hard to understand?
I disagreed with you, saying he put historical offensive numbers and that still does not explain those random numbers.
Timme's role on defense? Do you mean being a speed bump on the way to the basket? You don't get to be just a help defender in the NBA, players and coaches are too good.
Those were not my tweets suggesting historic production. Those tweets are from Givony, schmitz, ESPN stats, etc. Actual experts in their field.
Ok. What about those numbers are so historic or really matter? Tell me the ones you think are historical and matter?
He averaged 18 PPG in less than 25 minutes, as a secondary option. Never mind averaging 14 TRB and 4 BPG to boot. Who else has done that?
This is the most solid (in a nutshell) analysis I've seen on the top 3... and the reason they likely go 1,2,3 as listed.
Rockets also play 5 out offense and switch defense. And not because of Silas but because Rockets FO believes this is the system to maximize postseason success. Banchero, like Sengun, will have to adjust game to fit this system, increasing his 3PA while minimizing his mid range attempts. While Banchero should have no trouble playing iso, he will need to improve as roller/lob threat in PnR. But it is switch defense that he will have most issues with, same as Sengun.
With data backed from synergy: https://basketballpoetry.substack.com/p/the-twilight-zone-how-much-zone-defense Second older link with some quotes from various NBA head coaches. By the numbers there is no upward trend, even the team who utilizes the zone the most is running it under 10% of the time... With the average team possession per game ~100. -_- https://www.nba.com/news/numbers-notebook-zone-defenses
100% tier matters first within the same tier you can look for "fit", especially at #17 when you're hoping to draft a future starter or rotation player. I think we're so early in the rebuild, where only Jalen really deserves consideration when selecting another top 5 pick, that I'm not sure "fit" helps me decide either. everyone in the top 4 fits with jalen. I'm not willing to consider KPJ or sengun when making a selection in the top 5. I think they will have to be the one's who fit next to our top 5 pick, not the other way around. so what I've come to is this; how much do you believe in jalen? if you believe we have a future all star, then I would want to pair him with a player who has the highest floor (again since they are all on the same tier, and all fit with jalen). I'd rather jalen start to learn winning habits rather than be on a terrible team another year. and I think at some point we need to bring in enough talent and wins for him to want to resign here (yes, early to think about that, but this is our chance to add the talent needed to do that). if you are still uncertain about jalen, then my appetite for risk increases. if we think we don't have anything for sure yet, then roll the dice with whoever has the highest upside because we can't afford to come away from years of tanking without a bonafide star. last year we had nothing to lose so I wanted the guy with the highest upside (jalen) over the guy with the higher floor (mobley) since they were both presumably on the same tier and fit didn't matter because we were starting from scorched earth. this year I happen to believe we have a cornerstone in jalen and so I've become more risk averse. I think jabari and banchero offer the highest floors and are the safest bets. I lean jabari personally. I think chet has the highest upside but also the lowest floor. if this was last year, I'd want to swing for the fence with chet. the other thing to consider after tier, fit, and appetite for risk, is next year's draft class. another reason for me wanting jalen over mobley last year was that I looked into the 2022 class to see mostly bigs at the top. chet, banchero, duren, at the time Baldwin, nzosa, and jovic, were all 4s and 5s at the top of the draft with one guard, hardy. I figured if we take jalen we can pair him with any of the bigs next year, and now we can. if we took mobley, I really was worried about starting a rebuild with a C and PF and no perimeter play. sure, ivey is there now, but there are still more options for bigs with jalen than guards with mobley in this draft. so when I look into next year's draft I see a lot of centers and PGs supposedly in the top 10. I think if we're lucky enough to draft in the top 3 this year, we probably don't need chet (who I think ultimately becomes a center) or ivey (who I think ultimately becomes a PG) because have the ability to draft a very talented player at one of those positions next year in the top 10. and you never know if sengun or kpj prove to be a cornerstone by this time next year. again leading me to jabari or banchero with the top 2 picks. chet then ivey at #3 and 4.
Not going to be mad with any of the top 4, or 5 (Murray) for that matter. But Paolo is growing on me. Saying this team needs defense around Jalen and Sengun therefore Paolo is a bad fit is insane when the team is the worst in the entire league. The team needs more Jalens and Senguns, we are not at the stage of worrying about who to put around them yet. Chet gives you the highest upside if he hits his ceiling, but has the lowest floor with risk of his game not totally translating and injury. Jabari is the youngest but has an one dimensional offensive game which may limit his upside to high end role player. Ivey passes the eye test but hes older and his production isn't out of this world. If you view Paolo strictly as a PF then his defense is going to limit his effectiveness because big men have more responsibility on that end. But if he's just a big forward ala Carmelo, KD, Lebron, Tatum etc who can all slide to pf as needed then all of a sudden Paolo is a 6'10 wing with little that he cannot do, while you can still put a defensive pf next to him and Sengun.
And then show playoff numbers Embiid took 7.8 post up possessions during the season.....do you know how many he took in game one vs Raptors? Zero according to NBA.com https://www.nba.com/stats/players/playtype-post-up/ Scottie Barnes got hurt and the Raptors keyed their zone to stop Embiid and Harden......allowed Maxey to go off. But other teams in the playoffs have dominated both home games only to lose their grip on a series once they travel on the road and role players don't do so well. Keep thinking zone defense in the NBA is a myth. More power to you. But keep watching the playoffs.....those playing defense. You might see what im saying as we progress through the playoffs and start weeding out pretenders from contenders.
Here's a blind comparison I thought would be interesting to share... Three point percentage vs top 50 quality teams Player A: .438 (28 of 64) Player B: .383 (36 of 94) Three point percentage from January 1st through end of season Player A: .442 (50 of 113) Player B: .415 (49 of 118) Two point percentage (excluding shots at the rim) Player A: .405 (45 of 111) Player B: .358 (63 of 176) Shot attempts at the rim Player A: .708 (196 of 277) Player B: .651 (41 of 63) Total made dunks Player A: 63 Player B: 14 Games with at least 10 FG made Player A: 15 on .664 FG% Player B: 1 on .625 FG% Games with at least 3 "stocks" (steals + blocks) Player A: 24 Player B: 11
Trade EGo/Tate + #17 to Hawks for Jalen Johnson. Just as big as Paolo but better rim protector, switchable 1-5 and better college 3ball shooter (both went to Duke). And just as sweet a passer. JJ nick is mini Lebron. Would also add another elite cutter for Sengun.
Well I'm clearly making a point with the comparison, which is why the stats favor Player A. But it's not like I had to go out of my way to cherry pick anything too obscure. Most of these are basic shooting splits and some data that was already parsed (like 3PT% vs top 50). The "stocks" stat I compiled myself, but I think it's pretty commonly agreed that 3 is a good benchmark for excellence there. Ultimately, I'm not even trying to make an argument for Player A over Player B on the whole. It's more just to spark conversation, maybe challenge some perceptions, etc.
