hoping the Hawks beat the Cavs and make the playoffs Trae Young could give Miami a scare…Cleveland is just boring fodder
Why does it matter anymore? We needed the Cavs to beat the Nets not the Hawks. Unless there is something I am missing here.
I don't think any team would say, "Hey, this guy looks like a bench player. Let's take him!" when they decide to draft a player. You hope every player you take to be a star. But realistically, what you expect is another story.
Understood, same rationale if Sharpe drafted - BPA. But how many SG are you willing to acquire - draft after draft after draft after draft arguing this premise? Bottom line - is Ochai Agbaji better than Jalen Green and/or Josh Christopher? If he is not better than either then he is a backup. And Rockets have much greater needs at other positions, all things being equal.
Was high on Eason. Doubt he makes it to this pick. Jovic would be my choice after we grab a 4 with the top pick. 2nd among all international prospects only behind Wemba. Great size and mobility. Smart. Crafty going left or right. Has great vision, a high motor, and developing range. If gone... Brown or Baldwin.
In this order for me. I know the first few may not be there. I'm just advocating moving into the 8-12 range for one of Mathurin Sochan Eason Griffin In that order
I'm a big Trae Young fan but have to hope the Cavs win, the difference between 16 and 17 could be crucial if a 'lottery talent' pick drops.
This is a pretty old analysis, but graphically it's a nice representation of expected draft pick value. I don't necessarily agree with the idea of characterizing players only by their best ever season, but even if you go by WAR, win shares or any advanced stat you choose, you get roughly the same logarithmic decline across the first round. The chart below says that you can roughly expect a player picked in the 15-22 to average a peak VORP of around 0.5; that's approximately around where KJ Martin was this year (0.4). Christian Wood was at 1.9 VORP this year, which is within one standard deviation of what we would expect from a mid round first. Note that VORP is a rate independent stat, so guys that don't play a lot can overperform; guys who play a ton of minutes and put up huge VORP are legitimate MVP candidates (Jokic's season is top 15 all-time). A VORP of 2 is probably somewhere around the 40-50th best player in a given year (should be in all-star consideration), a VORP around 0.5 is around the 160-180th best player in any given year, (probably a starter or sixth man). So the average we should probably expect from the Nets pick is a guy who maxes out at KJ Martin during his career year. Conversely, the average outcome from a pick in the 4-6 range is going to be someone who maxes out even better than Christian Wood going by box score stats only (basically Wood who can make free throws...that sounds like a freaking Paolo...I mean, problem for the league). Getting a consistent rotation player who consistently gets 1 VORP or more for years on end should probably be seen as a win overall, although it doesn't feel like it during their career. I remember actually being pretty disappointed when the Rockets drafted Patrick Patterson and Marcus Morris, but both guys ended up playing in the league for a decade plus, and generated roughly the same number of VORP over that time, as compared to high upside guys like Terrence Jones or Royce White, who ended up burning out from the league quickly. SOURCE
Thanks! Looks like there's a big drop after #10. The rest of the first round has about the same range with the mean dropping below the rotation line after 15. That sounds about right. I would be quite happy if the Nets pick turns out to be a solid rotation player, starter or off the bench.
You pull a poker face and announce that pick in the teens is on your Top 6 draft board and smile courteously.
I have to disagree .... Sengun was a poor defender this year he just lacks the size to defend the 5 / protect the rim and while he probably improves some, he's never going to be a stand out defender. Garuba isn't a rim protector either, he's a small ball 5. This team was dead last in just about every defensive metric - points in the paint, shooting percentage in the paint ... Chet or Williams is just what this roster needs. A defensive presence in the paint. I think Sengun has to develop his 3 point shot and move to the 4 spot where he is an average defender rather than a very poor one. Garuba may end up moving to the forward spot eventually as well, his strength is switch defending on the perimeter.
Good points, now that I think about it, all of Sengun's block's came after someone blew by him. I can't think of many instances where he met someone at the rim.
There is no way in hell that Sengun will ever in his life be able to defend a forward position in the NBA. GOOD luck with improving something as elusive as lateral quickness and defending in space. He did however show flashes of cagey defense on large bigs, and his Chuck Hayes/PJ Tucker strength is coming. We need forwards that can both assist with rim protection and stretch the floor.
Hmm I’m still not sure on him yet… I do know one thing .. it’s gonna be one tough decision if we have first pick!!
