Does that chart factor in playoffs ? I’m curious if he ramps it up then I have a feeling he is fine and they are just managing him over 162 . I don’t think he’s throwing as hard as he can right now ..
I think he's definitely throwing as hard as he can with command. The Astros must however feel strongly that they know what the issue is and that it's unlikely to be a significant issue. It's just interesting that absent the extension this would look like a big problem as it's not some once appearance blip.
I don't think that chart does, but other than 2020 which was a short season, his velocity either was pretty much the same or dropped during the postseason.
maybe .. I just feel like , just as starters are on pitch counts , especially early .. with Presley (who has had some injury issues ) it wouldn’t surprise me if he was on sort of an effort limit early on .
With or without the extension, this seems worrisome to me. Maybe it isn't an issue and he pitches fine at a lower velocity. Maybe he rebounds this season and throws harder this season (not just the typical warmup increase that is typical). I doubt he will be able to throw his fastball as often as he did last year with the same results at this new velocity. Unless his velocity returns to normal, I expect he will lean more on his slider which has been a dominating pitch the past 2-3 years with a lot of usage.
Yeah, it's definitely a problem for him if the velo doesn't pick back up. Maybe some of that can be addressed via changing up his pitch selection but if this is who he is moving forward then he's probably more of a really good reliever (low-3 xERA) than an elite (2.5 or lower xERA). However, with this going on, why on earth would you sign him to a market rate extension?
The one thing that brings me hope is that he's been here before mostly in 2020 and was still very effective. Maybe not as elite as last season but pretty darn good.
No team studies data more than the Astros No team is more willing to move on from a player if they feel he is no longer effective ( or AS effective) than the Astros. ( exhibits: Keuchel, Giles, Peacock, McHugh, Fiers, Devenski, erc.) I am confident that the team took all precautions and determined ( with WAY more information than we have) that Pressly is not in decline.
100% agree. I think as fans it is also easy to forget that Odorizzi signed real late last year, so he did not have a full spring training to get his arm strength where it needed to be. So he struggled initially, which was kind of like an extended spring training for him. I think he is good enough to keep us in the games that he starts, which should be the realistic goal that we have for him.
All you can do is reduce risks. But you can't eliminate them entirely. Verlander was a good risk in 2019 to extend for two years at $33M/Yr AAV. But he had an injury. We now consider him a good risk on a $25M with $25M player option. S far so good. But there are no guarantees.
All I am saying ( to those who are talking about his reduced velocity) Is that the team and people way more knowledgeable than us clearly does not consider that an issue.
We do not know this. We don't know when the deal was agreed to (we only know when it was official). We don't know if Pressly was asking for $18M AAV, and the $14M AAV deal is a compromise that the reduced velo adds about 20% or more risk to the Astros.
Is this the year Urquidy goes from good to great? Fastball was harder than ever in first start (per FanGraphs). He's added a cutter. He seems to have the stuff to be great, but for whatever reason he can't get batters to strike out a lot.
