You don't know this, maybe Luhnow adds 1 more quality starter in a trade at the deadline and the Stros win another championship.
https://theathletic.com/3228067/202...-rookie-of-the-year-division-champs-and-more/ Who will win the World Series? Team Percent of vote Dodgers 48.5% Blue Jays 39.4% White Sox 6.1% Padres 3% Angels 3% Yankees 0% Astros 0% Phillies 0% Mets 0% Rays 0% Who will win the AL West? Team Percent of vote Mariners 42.4% Astros 39.4% Angels 18.2% Rangers 0% A's 0% Corey Brock (Pick: Astros): Can’t wait for the year where the answer here ISN’T the Astros. But this ain’t that year. Blum (Mariners): The long, long wait will be over. The Mariners over-performed expectations and their own metrics last year. But their bullpen pitching is excellent, and adding Cy Young winner Robbie Ray helps the rotation. That said, this is a pretty wide-open division. Weaver (Mariners): What a division: the Astros are the favorites, the Rangers and Mariners improved a lot, the Angels *have* to stop screwing things up eventually, and the A’s, uh, so I think the Mariners are going to win the division. Berman (Astros): I was tempted to pick the Mariners, but realized that might’ve been because I watched them beat the A’s 12 consecutive times in 2021. The Astros are still the most complete team and still have a potent lineup, even without Carlos Correa. Who will be named AL MVP? Player Percent of vote Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 42.4% Shohei Ohtani 27.3% Aaron Judge 9.1% Mike Trout 6% Luis Robert 6% Bo Bichette 3% Yoán Moncada 3% Yordan Álvarez 3% Wander Franco 0% Most overrated team going into this season? Team Percent of vote Mets 30% Yankees 24% Astros 9% Rangers 9% Phillies 6% White Sox 3% Brewers 3% Giants 3% Rays 3% Dodgers 3% Padres 3% Tigers 3% Connolly (Pick: Astros): Astros. Injuries and defections will finally take their toll — to the delight of many. Blum (Rangers): The Texas Rangers made a lot of moves to get a whole lot better this year. But there’s still more needed to actually be a playoff team. They improved, but to me, still look like a team that will finish below .500. Weaver (Dodgers): Dodgers, but only because if they don’t go 162-0 and win the World Series, it’s going to be a little bit of a letdown. Rosecrans (Mets): Why do I get a nagging feeling that the Mets are going to be a mess? Ciely (Mets): Since the Mets are seeing some of the most money coming their way in Vegas World Series bets, I’ll say them. Luck seems to hate them, as evidenced by Jacob deGrom worries already.
https://theathletic.com/3223790/202...in-groups-from-juan-soto-to-mike-yastrzemski/ Spoiler One day this winter, in the darkest depths of Major League Baseball’s lockout, this project was devised to provide kindling for baseball’s cold stove. The plan was to create a comprehensive, contextualized list of the top 125 position players entering the 2022 season, from superstars to All-Stars to solid starters. But how best to predict all-around value? Projection models? The eye test? We didn’t want to rely on raw numbers or opinions alone, so we melded the two. Starting as a series of conversations and Slack messages between the three of us, with THE BAT X projection system as a baseline, we whittled a list of 250 hitters in half and sorted it into five tiers. Then we turned to Baseball People to check our work. We spoke with more than 25 people in the game — MLB executives, evaluators, coaches, players and more — and asked for an audit. “Love the idea,” an analyst replied. “Ooooo I like it,” a player replied. “Send it, send it.” “Boy,” a scout said, “you guys have too much time on your hands.” So did everyone else in the baseball world, and they were eager to talk about actual baseball. A color-coded spreadsheet was sent out and returned marked up with red ink and feedback. They voted down some players and pounded the table for others: Joey Votto is way too low. … Oneil Cruz is either off the board or better than Tier 5. … Alex Bregman would be criminally underrated in Tier 3 (“He didn’t know which pitch was coming on EVERY pitch,” a former pitcher said). Then, once all responses were recorded, the three of us had a Zoom call to finalize the tiers. We debated projections and our expectations, considered playing time and platoons, and attempted to pin down which 125 position players will provide the most value in 2022. Tying together the data, expert input and our own observations, we debated for an hour and shifted players up and down until the tiers were complete. Each of us would have a slightly different spin on this list if doing it solo, and so will you. That’s the fun of it. Here’s where we landed. Before we break this down tier by tier, a few details to iron out. First: The players are in tiers, not individually ranked. Each tier is divided into lettered sub-tiers, and players are listed alphabetically within each sub-tier. Consider the gap between lettered groups (like 1A and 1B) to be less significant than the ones between numbered groups (like 1B and 2A). We elected to leave out any hitter who has yet to play in an MLB game — apologies to Adley Rutschman, Julio Rodríguez and all other top prospects. All stats included in the charts below are 2022 projected stats courtesy of THE BAT X at FanGraphs. […] Alex Bregman and Manny Machado also got bumped into this group after multiple thumbs up. “A tick underrated,” one evaluator said of Bregman, who many predict to have a bounce-back year. The Astros infielder, who had hand surgery this winter, told reporters in West Palm Beach this spring that he feels amazing. It’s tough to say how much the hand (and a quad injury) impacted him at the plate, but Bregman was limited to just 91 games last year, hitting .270 with 12 homers and 55 RBIs. He’s a “relentless player,” said a scout. “Bet on him to hit even if he doesn’t know what’s coming.”
3 MVP level hitters and an all-star. Doesn’t include last year’s batting champ and the runner-up. I think Pena will end this season as at least above average if not in the top starter category. And if none of Siri/Meyers/Leon/Brinson/McCormick gets established as above average, my guess is Houston trades for one of the CF in that graphic (Reynolds, Mullins, Laureano). Barring injury, by the playoffs I expect the Astros lineup to be 8 deep with established above average hitters.
Interesting how the opening day roster was acquired: Signed as a free agent (10): Maldonado, Brantley, Siri, Castro, Goodrum, Verlander, Odorizzi, Baez, Stanek, Neris Signed as an international amateur (6): Valdez, Garcia, Urquidy, Javier, Abreu, Blanco Acquired via trade (6): Montero, Maton, Pressly, Alvarez, Diaz, Taylor Signed to an extension during pre-free agent years (3): Gurriel, Altuve, Bregman Drafted (3): Tucker, McCormick, Pena
None of this matters until the playoffs. He’s still got time to do that, which is why I’m giving it time and seeing what he does with the flexibility.
Boy the national media is rooting hard against this team. 43% picking the M’s to win the division is silly.
If you wanted to simplify things, Bregman would be slotted into the “drafted” category since he is only in his 7th season and would still be under team control this year even if he hadn’t signed the extension; Altuve and Gurriel would be “signed as free agents” since they are beyond their original team control.
Gurriel was signed originally as a FA. Altuve was drafted… and retained. A concept that is still possible in this day/age where the Astros do move on from homegrown players with regularity once they become too expensive. Biggio/Bagwell were not “signed as FA’s” simply because they were able to be retained and agreed to extensions to play their careers in one place.
Max Stassi in the same bracket as Michael Brantley and AJ Pollock? Throws all credibility of this list out the window
A realistic optimist’s set of predictions: Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman will finish in the top 5 in the AL MVP voting Yordan Alvarez will finish in the top 5 in the AL in OPS Michael Brantley, Yuli Gurriel, and Jose Altuve will all finish in the top 10 in the AL in batting average Jeremy Pena will finish in the top 5 of the AL Rookie of the Year voting The Astros pitching staff will combine for an era under 3.70 The Astros will win the AL West by at least 5 games The Astros will reach the ALCS
None of that sounds unreasonable. I think we actually win the division by more than 5 games tbh. Tucker and Bregman won’t both finish top 5 just because that’s typically not how it all shakes out, but neither one of them finishing top 5 would surprise me. I like Yordan to be the best hitter in the league by OPS + as my optimistic prediction. That would be fun. I don’t think that dude has a ceiling at the plate.
