The 2022 Baseball Season - Things to Come

There’s not really a prototypical lead off hitter on this roster. I don’t think Pena will have the on-base skills to bat first, and the argument to introduce him to the league that way is a mixed bag. It’s a shame Bregman doesn’t have better speed and has had hamstring issues, because otherwise I think he’d make a great leadoff hitter.

I would probably bat Altuve leadoff, but I would also consider Tucker for that spot. Either way I think Altuve, Tucker, Bregman, and Alvarez belong in the top 4 spots in the lineup.

 

Stature should have NOTHING to do with it.

Line-up construction should be based on run scoring potential. Way back a century ago, the best hitter in baseball hit fourth based on the premise that at least one of the first three hitters would get on base so your best hitter could clean up the base-paths. To this day, hitting 4th is called the Clean-up hitter.

With this purpose in mind, I once again propose my optimal line-up for run scoring. It of course will be adjusted by the manager for various reasons like unreported injuries or other issues which could affect the typical performance of the player.

In the late 90s and early 00s, The concept of moving the best hitter up the the third spot was tried because he was coming to the plate with nobody on too often. Bagwell was that man for the Astros and, while many scratched their heads at this non-traditional move at the time, I approved. As more modern metrics developed, I have tried to optimize a methodology for maximizing scoring potential.

First, select your highest OPS+ guys who have the best chance of both clearing the base paths and/or extending the inning. Place them at at 3 and 4 in the batting order, preferably with best at 3.

Second, choose the highest OBP guys left at 1 and 2 in the batting order. This gives the players most likely to reach base more plate appearances both for the game and for the season and places them in an optima; setup position to be driven in.

Third, select the players with the highest SLG left in an attempt to drive in the base-runners before reaching the bottom of the order.

Fourth, fill in the bottom of the order by OBP in an attempt to turn the line-up over to start the next inning.

Now tweak the line-up for L/R/S splits or speed considerations. For instance, if a young player has speed, but you want fewer PAs, try him 9th instead of 7th or 8th to keep from clogging up the base-paths for 1 and 2. But if he's a two result hitter, leave him at 7 or 8.

Anyway, this is how it would work with the anticipated starting line-up based in last season.

Batting 3, L Tucker, 147 OPS+

Batting 4. L Alvarez, 136 OPS+

Batting 1. R Gurriel, 383 OBP

Batting 2. L Brantley, 362 OBP

Batting 5. R Altuve, 489 SLG

Batting 6. R McCormick, 447 SLG

Batting 7, R Bregman, 355 OBP

Batting 8, R Malonado, 272 OBP

Batting 9 R Pena, ??? _ (363 OBP, 579 SLG, 942 OPS in 130 PA in AAA)

This is a staring point. Then make adjustments like moving Tucker to 2 to break up the lefties and Brantly to 6. or Brantley 2, Tucker 4 and Alvarez 6. With these adjustments we get:

1. R Gurriel 383 OBP 2021 Batting Champ
2, L Brantley 362 OBP
3. R Bregman 355 OBP
4. L Tucker 147 OPS+
5. R Altuve 489 SLG
6. L Alvarez 136 OPS+
7. R McCormick 447 SLG
8. R Maldonado 272 OBP
9. R Pena ???

Many adjustments are required to spread out the lefties, but the concept I believe is valid for maximizing scoring. I'm not sure how long a history should be used before resetting. Again, is it bad luck, a slump or injury or good luck and a hot streak?

 

It's a retirement tour. Let him have it. Biggio's last few years certainly weren't prime Biggio either. He contributed. It's not like St Louis is expected to be a perennial contender anymore.

 

Pujols is 42 (probably closer to 45) and has been a bad player for a while now.

The are only 20 players with over 100 career bWAR. Pujols used to be one of them.

 

I LOLed at that.

 

Not crazy enough to be an April Fools joke.

 

I'm sorry. I don't see any impact players in this group unless there is a reason for poor performance last year.

 

Mets want Paddack (who is a perfect Met SP: great arm, huge injury issues), willing to take on Hosmer's contract.

Pads paying to get rid of Hosmer's contract, get a 1B replacement for him (injured in '21, monster year in '20).

Makes a ton more sense for the Pads than the Mets.

 

He's having a good spring. Youth Movement?

 

SP is always a gamble. Maybe worth a flyer.