The reason I have Chet over Jabari and why I haven't ruled out Paolo as the better NBA big man is because they do a lot of things well. I envision Chet is always going to give you really good rim protection and even if he's struggling offensively scoring he's still going to do enough other things to make an impact on the floor. Same with Paolo but in a different way. I think the playmaking and ability to pass and create offensively should be consistent. If he improves defensively that's a huge plus for him. With Jabari, like in the tournament loss, I fear that if he's not shooting well he may not bring much else. I can see him being a complete non factor in games. He's not great in the mid range or around the basket, he doesn't consistently create shots for himself or others, he's not shown to be a rim protector...not a big rebounder..he's a good athlete with perimeter switch ability and he has been a lights out shooter... But Kispert was a lights out shooter in college too. Not comparing his overall game to Jabari's but Kispert didn't shoot well this season. Maybe he improves, but you take a guy like that because he shot 44% from three in college. In the NBA he's shooting sub 35%. If Jabari does not shoot well because of better defense, further 3pt line or he just had a really good year and comes down to earth...what else does he bring?
My problem with Chet isnt the bust rate I mean look at the dude produce in college its impossible some of that **** doesnt translate. My issue with him is the injury risk such a unique frame can have. Everyone knows the biggest question on Chet is his weight but he was only able to add 5 pounds all year. I think thats a red flag like why wasnt he able to add more weight than that some people drink half a gallon of water and instantly gain 5 pounds lol. You have to wonder if his body just aint cut to add weight and how additional pounds is gonna affect his mobility and overall health. Another issue he gets slammed to the floor pretty hard multi times in college I wonder if his bidy csn take thst kind of abuse in the NBA. He is def the highest risk/reward player in this draft thats for sure.
Jabari is 6'10 and extremely athletic. He is only 18 one of the youngest players in this class. Kispert was like 23, much shorter than him and a whole lot less athletic. Kispert cant do anything in the NBA besides shooting he cant defend opponent's best player, he cant grab rebs, he cant drive to the rim for easy buckets, he cant score in transition. Jabari can do all thst and more. Being a perimeter switch defender in the NBA is just as valuable as a rim protector, if you remember PJ Tucker anchored our defense despite averaging 0 blocks per game. And again Jabari isnt exactly a 0 shot blocker either he averages a block a game. He can guard Cade today and Ayton tom, very few players in this class have that kind of defensive versatility. The Rox have lots of players who are amazing with the ball in their hands so a dude like Jabari who can contribute off the ball is sorely needed.
Right but only one of those teams is guaranteed to get a top 5 pick. So that's what I'm confused about. How is it determined who gets that top 5 pick protection? It would have to occur before the lottery because it's the point of the top 5 pick protection is that you won't land outside the top 5 in the lottery.
Not comparing the two but Kispert is a good athlete, 2nd fastest shuttle, 37 inch max vert. Jabari will probably test similarly if not slightly below. Kispert was a good defender in college and is solid team defender. But there isn’t much projection as he came into the league at 22. Jabari is long and a good athlete, not elite. But that’s good enough to be a top defender on any team he goes to. He’s still mainly a 3pt threat on offense and not much of an efficient scorer around the bucket.
I described it in detail later in the thread. There is no such thing as “top 5 protection” and no need for it because there is no lottery beyond pick four. The lottery does not determine the full order - only the top four. And the bottom three teams have identical odds during the draw for the top four. So the NBA does that draw. Only if neither team makes the top four is it even relevant, and in that scenario they “flip a coin” to see who is 5 and who is 6.
Maybe Kispert spent 2 hrs warming up on his drills thats why he performed so well cuz none of that **** is translating on the court. He is averaging only 2.6 rebs and less than 1 FTA not exactly nos someone who is a good athlete will produce in the NBA. He is supposed to have good lateral speed but cant get separation on his man and also has negative defensive box score plus minus. Little to no dunks either so I dunno if he can replicate his max vert or it was just a good day for him. Jabari might not jump out ala Jalen Green but he is more athletic and mobile than either Banchero or Chet esp given his size and weight. Given what we've seen from Green and Kuminga Im starting to think Smith acctuslly has the highest ceiling in this class since he is so young and yet already on par with the top 4 prospects.
Go to tankathon man. Worst team record has top 5 protection, 2nd worst has top 6 protection and 3rd worst has top 7 protection. In this case we have 2 worst teams thats why either can be 5 or 6 but the protection still exists.
Smith is a good athlete but not explosive. More smooth than anything. Chet and Jabari are similar in that sense, even Paolo is the same just a little less mainly due to his weight imo. Jabari upside is great because of his shot but he is a poor finisher. Chet has the highest upside to me but could bust because of frame. Paolo is the highest floor.
Jabari isnt a prolific scorer he is a 3nD specialist st this point. He'll be the top defender of the team and then provide spacing with his lethal sniping as well as all around contribution. Chet also isnt a lockdown defender he is actually the prolific scorer between the two. Unlike Smith Chet can score anywhere on the court and esp in transition. The only issue with him is his frame can make him injury prone in the future.
I agree except I think Jabari has the highest floor. At worst he is Ryan Anderson with defense. Thats a pretty high floor lol people wouldnt be so mad at Ryan Anderson if he could defend. Paolo has a lot of tricks but his 3 pt shot is suspect and if that doesnt translate into the NBA he can easily be Rudy Gay 2.0. He'll put up empty calorie stats but have bad D and inefficent nos worst case.
I see a lot of people falling into the trap of assuming we know exactly who these guys can be and currently are. Jabari was playing next to a flat footed oaf in Walker Kessler and two guards who wouldn’t pass the ball. Chet was playing next to a guy who hung around the rim. Paolo is playing next to 4 other guys with NBA aspirations and a very iso heavy system until recently when they finally started to gel. We have no idea what these guys are capable of at the next level. Saying one guy can not do something is just not true.
yeah, man, I know exactly how it works, which is why I explained it already man. The question man was how they determine “top 5 protection” when two teams tie man. The answer is there is no “top 5 protection” in a tie man. I can keep explaining it to you, but I can’t understand it for you.
Roughly 1 in 4 both miss top four. If you go up a few posts I did the math there - if they tie for the worst, it’s 1 in 2 that Rockets end up in top four, roughly 3 in 8 for number 5 and 1 in 8 for number 6. All approximate, but close enough.
Theres no need to explain worst record has top 5 protection, 2nd worst has 6th etc. The only diff now is we have two team with identical records so either of them can get 5 or 6. Thats just how the lotto goes. Once a team solely sits on the worst record try simming and see if you get the worst team as the 6th pick.
I don’t need to “sim” anything. I’m crystal clear on how the math works. That’s not the question he asked. He asked how “top 5 protection” is determined if two teams tie. The answer is that there is no top 5 protection in that scenario.
I’ll make this simple for all the less educated on this board….Jabrari Smith has the tools to be an excellent NBA player…..Chet Holmgren has the tools to be Zhou Qi. If you’re happy with 10-8-3 from your top five pick then take Chet. By the way, I’m being nice with saying he’ll average 10 points a game.
