I'm sure this is not right... Need to determine the order before drawing the ping pong balls. According to Tankathon, this appears to be what happens: 10 Tied lottery teams split their ping pong balls evenly, and any odd remainder and the better draft order position are given to the random drawing winner
Lets look at Orlando's drafting since Dwight left, lotto picks only: 2013: #2: Victor Oladipo (can't get mad at that, but his game really only reached stardom when he learned how to get mega-jacked from Russ) 2014: #4: Aaron Gordon (High end role player) 2014: #12: Dario Saric (good role player) 2015: #4: Mario Hezonja (LOL) 2016: #11: Domantas Sabonis (Amazing pick, but traded him for Serge Ibaka, LOL) 2017: #6: Jonathan Issac (Great pick! Can't stay healthy sadly) 2018: #6: Mohamed Bamba (really botched his development by never playing him, could still be a high-end role player imo, though that may be my UT bias showing) 2021: #5: Jalen Suggs (Looks like the bust of the draft) 2021: #8: Franz Wagner (Looks like the steal of the draft) And some noted picks outside the lottery: 2018: Jarred Vanderbilt (#41, another guy who got traded and blossomed elsewhere) 2019: Talen Horton-Tucker (#46, Same as Vanderbilt) 2019: Chuma Okeke (#16, role player) 2020: Cole Anthony (#15, role player) Their drafting is way better than I thought it was, only two busts in the last decade, and two all stars. Their big problem seemed to be in trading dudes like mad and failing to develop them in Orlando. I kind-of hope Orlando picks #1 while we pick #2 just to make the decision easier and remove the good-not-great player they're bound to pick.
This can't happen for the worst 3 records because the worst 3 records share the same number of combinations in the lottery, so there won't be an odd remainder combination. In the event of multiple ties, I'd imagine there would be a random drawing of some sort just like for the non-lottery-picked teams (only the top 4 picks are determined by the lottery). But also, the only reason you'd need a tie-breaker among the top two (or three) positions is if they both fell out of the top-4, right?
Rockets can finish tied with Orlando or 1 game back and it won't matter that much. Basically the difference between being tied for the worst record and the 2nd worst record is that instead of a 20% chance of the 6th pick, you have a 10% chance (the coin flip cuts it in half). So the Rockets can beat the Nets so long as they make sure to lose to the Hawks.
the top 3 have exactly the same odds of top 4. There is no tie to break for the odds. What I wrote was correct.
For sure! But moving in and falling out of the top 4 are different things, right? Perhaps I read incorrectly, but he seemed to say a coin flip if the trams move into the 4. But this isn't possible as they split ping pong balls and draw for spots, once drawn the spots are locked. As you say, the odds are the same... sooo
The coin flip would only happen if both teams moved out of the top 4? Sorry if I read what you said incorrectly... it read as if there would be a flip for top 4 spots once settled?
Assume Orlando and Houston are tied at the end of the season for the worst record. There would be no coin flip needed for the lottery positioning before the top 4 picks are determined. They'd just go into the lottery tied, share the same number of combinations, without needing to split any combinations or need any coin flips. The lottery is then held for the top 4 positions. If Orlando doesn't get a top-4 pick and Houston does get a top-4 pick, Orlando will get the 5th pick and Houston will get whatever pick they rolled in the top 4. If both Houston (God forbid) and Orlando both don't get a top-4 pick is when I believe a coin-flip would need to be done (or it may just be done pre-lottery like all the other lottery tie-breakers as a "just in case both of these teams drop out of the top 4" thing). This would be to determine who would get the 5th and 6th picks since they both dropped out of the top 4. Or ... that's the way I believe is correct since the NBA doesn't really spell any of this out that I've seen. They're too busy selling stuff. In any case, it seems to only be an issue if both Houston and Orlando did not get a top-4 pick. Unless someone else can see anything wrong with this line of thinking.
Their picks are fine, it's not on the players but the organization. Neither FO or any of their myriad head coaches know how to fit systems to players, instead always trying to force players into systems. The Magic suck because the organization has no clue on what to do on or off the court.
That what I think too! Again, based on the evidence available... From memory there was a tie last season and a coin flip for position? Was it Sacramento and New Orleans?
Maybe I miswrote. What I meant is what you say … if Rockets are tied for bottom 2 (or 3), step one is the lottery draw for top four and all 2 or 3 have exact same odds. Next step is that whoever did NOT move into top 4 and is tied has random draw to see who is 5, 6 (or 7). I think we are all saying the same thing. The key is the odds … if Rockets are tied for last with one team the scenarios and odds are: * Rockets make top 4 - roughly * rockets don’t make it, other team does, Rockets get number 5 - roughly 25% * both teams don’t make it and rockets win coin flip for number 5 - roughly 13% chance * both teams don’t make it and rockets lose coin flip for number 6 - roughly 12% chance. So dead last is 100% chance of top 5, and tied for last is roughly 90% chance of top 5. So, let’s all relax a bit! (yes, these are rough because top 4 odds aren’t 50/50 and the conditional probability of other team getting top 4 is higher if rockets don’t … but close enough for estimates).
The Magic were never known to hold star players.......even if they knew how and what to do. It is a sorry franchise and Disney World is the only entertainment there. And they had pretty good players.
I am Torn between Chet and Jabari… do you want the Rockets to have an Elite lockdown Defender in Chet or a prolific scorer in Jabari? Damn can’t go wrong with either one. But man Jabari and Green would definitely light up the NBA in points for years to come. Sheeesh
from what I am reading Jabari is a pretty good defender himself - just not a rim protector like Chet. How is Chet’s defense outside of blocking shots? Can he stay with guards on switches? Can he hold his ground against stronger defenders in the paint? Basically is he an overall great defender or are there holes in his defensive abilities that would get exploited by NBA competition?
