Carlos Correa to the Twins - 3 Years, $105 Million

He literally said himself in his interview introducing him that the batters eye in MIN helps him see the ball there better than anywhere else. Has nothing to do with Twins pitching.

Also, the slash line is his career numbers there...not many players remain on the roster even last season compared to his first few in the league. In other words, he very well may face many of the same pitchers...

 

Apples and Oranges. Fact vs Fiction. End of Discussion.

 

Nope.

This is not just about Pena vs Correa, it's about total team build and being able to lock up the other young talent.

The same was said about Springer and Correa did not provide Elite offensive production.

 

One reason I like WAR is that it adjusts for PA lost. Add up WAR for the appropriate number of years and divide by that number to get an annual WAR rate adjusted for both effectiveness and ability to stay in the line-up. Unfortunately 2020 messes that up.

 

I saw the Juicy Lucy on a old Andrew Zimmer show.

The burger just seems dangerous with all that molten cheese inside.

 

And no one has mentioned this yet here to my knowledge...but how much of his defensive value is going to be potentially hurt by banning the shift? I admittedly havent seen the details but regardless what they are (e.g. two on each side of field, all in dirt, etc.) it will adversely impact Correa's impact on D.

 

I think we're on the same side of the argument. Contracts without opt outs are based on one risk reward calculation and those with opt outs are based on a different calculation.

Like Verlander's deal, an opt out that only triggers after some level of performance helps offset a $50M potential investment. It is a risk that he might become Old Verlander the second year off Tommy John after an 80% Werlander the first year. It's a risk splitting deal rather than a risk dividing deal.

Minnesota is placing a lot of value on the signing SPLASH.

 

I don't think it's banned yet, but it's being tried in some minors to check it out.

My own preference is the Ted Williams approach and just beat the shift by hitting the ball harder or hitting the ball where they ain't rather than a rule change. How is it any different than spraying the ball and hitting to all fields?

The shift only works because the batters won't or can't make adjustments. Next thing you know, they'll be shrinking the strike zone and using super-balls (seemless) in the name of fan preference for the long ball.

 

I don’t think you have addressed the fact that the Astros were willing to guarantee him 5 years. Under his Minny deal, who cares if he opts out. You get him for basically the same AAV for one year when you have a championship contending team. Period. Full stop. It is your best shot at winning a title this season.

Conversely, If he gets hurt and opts in … who cares, because you would have had AN EVEN BIGGER PROBLEM by being bound to him for 5 years.

Looking at the risk/rewards of the Minny contract in isolation is stupid. It is the risk/reward relative to the 5 year deal they offered Correa.

And the talk about certainty is an excuse. Tucker and Alvarez don’t need to be extended anytime soon. Not at the expense of maximizing your chances at a title. Replacing Yuli and brantley is a problem that is better defined as this season progresses. 1B and LF are very easy positions to pick up offense. If you need to buy a solution or two next year, either you have Correa opting out, which leaves you with plenty of money. Or you have Correa opting in … in which case YOU ARE IN THR EXACT SAME POSITION AS YOU WOULD HAVE BEEN HAD HE TAKEN THE 5 YEAR DEAL. WHO CARES.

I love the Astros and have been a huge fan of Crane, and largely still am. But they screwed this up by not matching the Minny deal. Period.

 

Down side risk is greater. I acknowledge that. Upside risk is one season vs five seasons.

 

Yeah let me know what they spend that $32 million on this year lol

 

Sure but even worse with the 5 year deal lol.. even with no
Opt out clause…this point is so dumb it’s hard to take these people serious

 

Management offered a deal they knew he would NOT take because 5 year deal was a non starter. Every analyst in mlb said that deal wasn’t serious.

They never intended on paying him and that offer was just to keep the less informed (which is the majority) of the fan base happy that “they tried”

the only reason they didn’t get away with it is the deal he signed with the twins. Astros went cheap they aren’t all in to win … period. They want to make money and fool the fans. It’s pathetic. It’s unacceptable.

3 years at 35 per that will 99% be a 1 year opt out. Is less risky than a 5 year 32 per no matter how you break it down or compare it to used cars or whatever lol. 3 million dollars in annual salary would be the difference between having one of the best players in baseball and not having him.

the Astros had considerably more money to spend after the lockout as well so that 3 million difference was not going to effect them at all.

 

right? lol.

 

nor have you touched upon the fact that for the alleged higher upside of the 5 year deal, you need to assume health and continued MVP like performance by Correa for the duration of that deal. He has done it once. And if he delivers that performance for 5 years, he doesn’t OUTPERFORM the contract, he just performs to it. That’s your “upside”. You are locked into making that bet five years in a row.

The minny contract you make that bet probably once, but at the most 3 times.

There is no analysis that indicates the 3 year deal is worse for the Astros than the 5 year deal. Period.

The only think we can conclude from this is crane never wanted Correa back at 32 or 35MM per year, long or short term. If he did, he would have matched minny.

And until crane spends the 30+MM, we can only conclude he is less serious about winning than he used to be. He pocketed the money instead of maximizing our chances for a title. And that should piss everyone off.

 

Let's assume that the 2022 Astros are good enough to make the playoffs with or without Correa. If that is a given, then what wins 3 short series for a title? I would argue that dominant starting pitching is going to take you much further than a dominant shortstop. Especially if your average/above average shortstop gets you 75% both offensively/defensively of the dominant shortstop.

I thought this was interesting and might explain why the Astros were willing to pay Verlander and not Correa on short term deals. Between 2019-2021,

• There have been 127 instances of $20m+ annual player salaries (77 for position players and 50 for pitchers), this includes multiple years for certain players
• Of those, only 12 appeared in the World Series that year (9.4%)
• Only 4 of those appearances were by position players (3%). Altuve/Freeman in 2021 and Turner/Betts in 2020. The other 8 were by starting pitchers.

Doesn't seem like having high priced position players is the right formula to make it to the World Series. As a fan, I wish we could have HOF at every position, but it isn't realistic unless you are the Dodgers. The Astros model is to eschew splashy signings during the offseason for the most part, trust their core, evaluate where the weaknesses lie and load up at the trade deadline. I'll trust that until it stops working.

 

We also have a foot out the door in that case. There is zero uncertainty, its a one and done contract for both parties.
With the 5 year we had 5 years of certainty, we knew he would have been here and adjusted accordingly.

With the 3 year and opt out every year, Astros had no clue what Correa was going to do. They would have to assume everything.
Better to go with Pena and see what's going on with him.

 

Looking forward to it.

 

Correa, stellar defensive shortstop that can hit, and is clutch as hell in big spots, great leader, stood tall for the franchise in the face of the sign stealing backlash. I wanted him to be an Astro for life. Altuve too - this generations Bagwell/Biggio. Statues and everything. I hate that he is not an Astro anymore. For crying out loud, he helped us win World freakin' Series, something I never thought I would get to see in my lifetime, but I did and it still tastes sweet.

But he only hit above .300 in a season once (2017 - 109 games). He has never hit 30 homeruns in a season. He has never had 100 RBIs in a season. he had three seasons in a row between 2017 and 2019 when he missed significant playing time with injuries, one of which was broken ribs that I'm pretty sure Daniella gave him via snu snu.

Sorry but with the sentimental fan blinders taken off, I can't really fault the front office for not giving him the highest AAV for any infielder in the AL. Bagwell and Biggio made some sacrifices financially to stay in Houston. It was going to take Correa getting off of his desire to be the highest paid SS in the league and his 10 year/$300m+ dream to stay here. What's more telling is that he did not get that dream offer from anybody, but he is still adamant. He will try again, and again, and again to get that deal. If that is his goal, more power to him, I don't blame him. But you cannot expect a team in contention to indulge a players desire to score a humongosize deal with somebody else by offering him opt outs every year.

 

Not sure. Will see how it plays out… but if Correa has a stellar next 3 years and the Astros don’t win it all, it can always be questioned.

I also don’t see much difference between this deal and what JV is doing (or been doing) and the team seems fine with it.