Not trading Gordon is one of our biggest failures this year

In what world, when in a rebuild and clearly "tanking" to have a potential trade of an aged veteran for any 1st rd pick regardless of the year, do you not make the deal?

Seriously.

There are players in this draft, even in to the 2nd round that are better than several currently on the roster.

Nix
Lamb
Queen
Matthews
Bruno (incomplete)

Baffling!

 

can fire your GM, can't fire your family

 

The problem is that there is no central and agreed upon culture with the Rockets right now.

You have a lot of contradictions and there are no hard and fast rules or even philosophies.

You have a head coach that has never been a head coach before, that took over a different job than the one he applied for.

That same coach is aware that he could be labeled a loser and never get another head coaching chance and has a selfish motive to not let that happen and I am sure there is a level of him having resentment that he isn't coaching a 55 win team like he interviewed for.

So as a result Silas wants to win as many games as possible to better his career chances.

So in order to win games, Silas wants to play and trade for veterans.

The problem is that the Rockets front office wants to develop young players and get high draft choices.

So there is a conflict there.

Silas wants discipline and wants players that will play hard and are coachable, but he is left with a mandate from the front office to play Christian Wood and Kevin Porter Jr and a rookie is Jalen Green.

To make things worse, the Rockets front office goes and trades for one of the most universally disliked players in the league in Denis Schroeder.

So Silas has malcontents in Schroeder, Porter and Porter that basically do what they want while on the court and don't really care about or know how to win..... in all of this Silas has a 19 year old talented shooting guard that is just learning..... and then the veterans he likes, for example Eric Gordon, don't really want to play for the Rockets because they are terrible.

So you better believe there is an element of Silas feeling like he is set up to fail.

To make it worse, he doesn't have any real assurances from the front office, when the front office leaks earlier in the year that Silas is on the hot seat.

Then you look at the front office and you have a new GM, that most of the league didn't feel was next in line for the job, but just kissed the butt of the owner and helped secure the approval of the sale to Fertitta.

The GM is also obviously insecure and has had issues using the media properly and completing deals.

The GM also will not likely hire a really strong coach, because he is insecure and doesn't want his authority usurped like Stone did with Morey.


So what exactly is the culture of the Rockets?

Do they reward hard work? Not really. Christian Wood and Kevin Porter can undermine the coach and break the rules and they still play heavy minutes with little consequences. Eric Gordon has checked out, because he expected to be traded. He isn't the type to confront anyone, but the players know he isn't happy. You have very talented young players in their late teens seeing all of this. They are seeing Lucas having to play probation officer/baby sitter with Porter and Wood.

Have the Rockets given a clear direction? No, they keep Gordon and Wood and trade for Schroeder. So there isn't even an Astros situation where it is clear that the Rockets are going to completely rebuild long term and let everyone know what to expect in the organization.

Do the Rockets have an identity? No.... they are not a defense oriented team, not really an offensive one either. They don't have the mantra of being a hard working team, or an analytic driven team. They are a bunch of nothing.

What is clear is that whatever identity the Rockets end up having, it isn't going to come from the front office like it would with the Heat. It is going to have to come from the talents of the players and a really good coach. The Rockets will have to hope they get lucky like the Suns did with Monty Williams who established a culture and expectations in the organization.

Right now this Rockets team reminds me of the post Jordan Bulls teams with Curry and Chandler.... they just kind of aimlessly are drifting along. Part of the reason it was so important to me that Jalen Green had a strong work ethic and a positive personality is that the mess with Porter, Wood, Stone and Silas could really r****d a players development.... and Green appears to not be so easily influenced.

To be clear, I am not saying there aren't positive things about Stone and Silas.... there are, just overall this is a dysfunctional mess and really is a reflection of the early Tilman era.

One thing I can say I heard for years from within the Rockets organization, was that Stone seemed to have a natural ability to scout players, to be able to identify a handful of players that would be really positive in the right situation. That sounds so unscientific, but there are some guys that have that talent.... and that is what gives me hope with him as a GM... that he will hit on the big picks and that may be enough to salvage this huge mess.

From the front office end

 

Also, this draft ISN"T weak at the end of the first round.... most of the weakness is in that 19-25 range.... there are some good players outside of the top 25 that are comparable to players in the 25-40 range in prior drafts. There are also a number of interesting foreign players that are not lottery worthy, but still have upside.

 

Eric Gordon and actually Christian Wood are of value to contending teams. No one will give up a huge amount for them, but Gordon defends multiple spots satisfactorily and is a real help on the offensive end off the bench.... Wood is more of a wild card, but the expectation is that he likely would play harder in a situation where games matter.

 

what's ironic is folks calling this draft weak while at the same time these same folks don't even know who half these guys are in the draft. They just want justify the horrible decisions without even having relevant info behind it, in this case players in this draft

 

What? Schroder, Bruno, Queen are not under contract next year. And if they trade Gordon for a pick that's 4 slots - assuming they make no other moves at all like buying out Wall or whatever. They have 2 FRP in 22 and no seconds.

That's plenty of roster room, even if it just ends up being RGV.

Also, just becausee you *have* a late 22 first doesn't mean you have to use it!

Draft picks are fungible -IMO - more fungible than 1 year of Eric Gordon. The chances that another team sees somebody availalble at 22 tthat htey have at top 15 on their ddraft board is very high regardless of the weakness of the draft.

The other fishy thing about wanting a 23 or higher FRP is that the Rockets already have 2 first rounders in 23 - Milwaukee and their own. It's not ok to have 3 rookies in 22, but OK to have it in 23? Furthermore the future drafts are even more crowded with picks, to the point where they wont' even be able to use them. Is it that the Rockets ONLY want one in 27, where they have onlky 1 pick? Like, was the Lakers deal (crap + 2027 1st) the only deal they would entertain?

Seems dumb but maybe I'm missing something, like they know 23 is the double draft or something

 

I see Gordon's trade value as the greater of his playing value in a trade to a contender and that as the utility of his contract as an expiring in trade. If a contender this year wasn't willing to part with a future FRP for Gordon, Gordon's value as a player to a contender is minimal. He just isn't that good of a player.

As such, the only real question to me is whether or not a project drafted late (or whatever future 2nd round pick can be acquired with a 2022 late FRP) is worth more than the current projects and worth limiting Rockets ability to match contracts in trades.

 

You are a logical and good poster. I just don't agree with you that Gordon is worth more now than before the deadline.

Also, a first rounder has value even in this draft. Usually someone tries to trade into the back end of the first round for a player that slips in the draft. Also it isn't as if the Rockets are so deep that they couldn't use another player on the roster taken 25-30.

The only justification I can give Stone is if he thinks he can deal Gordon and Wood this summer in a package to a team like the Lakers for an unprotected or lightly protected pick.

 

I agree its a roll of the dice hoping EG stays healthy ....


What I don't agree on is the value of that pick - remember these were contenders, including PHX who were offering that pick - its likely somewhere between 25-30.

Players taken in that range very seldom contribute early in their careers and they cost guaranteed money and a roster spot.

I don't see pick 27 moving you from 16 to 15 much less 13 or earlier. First round picks in that range are almost a negative asset.

First round rookie contracts are 4 years with the first two guaranteed - Many teams would rather have a 2nd round Morey Special , UDFA or a veteran minimum than a guaranteed contract for the first two years on a player who isn't likely to contribute much , if at all.

If we were talking about a pick just outside the lottery up to 15 ~18 I probably shift to your stance .... but 25 or later is a different story, particularly when roster spots are at a premium and you'll have 6 or 7 first round picks in year one or two on your roster the coming season.


I think it's worth the risk to try and extend the life of that asset by hanging onto EG for another season.

 

This.

What is amazing to me is how many of these people like Chad Ford and other media "experts" all just parrot the same talking points and the same dozen players. You can tell there is no real thought involved and there is no real depth to what they are saying.

The quality of the draft class is not static, it changes and some players emerge and some fall but especially in the back half of the draft, there is a lot of unpredictability and a lot of players that will be drafted that there is minimal coverage for.

 

yup, in no way is a team in full rebuild at the stage of where they are being specific about one draft or the next. You gather the best assets and as many as you can and get rid of what's depreciating

 

I’ll be the first in line to eat crow if Stone turns Gordon into a high value 1st next season. That’s for damn sure. But if he walks away with a expiring and a 2nd for Gordon that’s the second time in his GM tenure where his expectation was no where near reality, the first being Oladipo

 

Several problems with your approach.

First - Queen is on a two way and does not occupy a roster spot. You don't clear a 4th roster spot.

Second - Only one team in the league can trade for EG and send back nothing but a pick - OKC. No other team has the cap space and would have to send out about $14.5m in return salary to make the trade work.

Third - What team had a single contract they could send the Rockets that was ~14.5m (matching)? Literally none of them.

The problem is that the Rockets didn't have multiple roster spots to take on salary with. Remember they had to cut Armoni Brooks just to pull off the Theis trade.
Which of the rockets value contracts are you willing to cut to enable trading EG for aggregated (multiple) contracts ? (Now or previously before the deadline passed).

We also don't know the length of those contracts that would have come in return for EG. You could have ended up with two or more contracts stuck on your books beyond next year .... which isn't ideal.

The Rockets have Zero dollars in guaranteed money beyond next season. The 2023/24 books consist of team options and cap holds for bird rights. Quite possible to sign TWO Max FA's in that offseason and retain much of your current roster.

 

Bruno and Schroder are 2 spots out, with 2 picks in. Queen is on a 2-way contract so he doesn't count against the number of NBA contracts. I'd rather Queen get an actual NBA than a player selected with a late FRP. I've been down on the depth of this draft from before it became apparent Stone wasn't willing to accept a late FRP for Gordon.

Gordon's stand alone value in trades goes down (from little to nothing), but that isn't why the Rockets kept him. The Rockets kept him almost solely because his contract potentially can be combined with actual assets to make trades work.

If the Rockets wanted Jalen Brunson in a sign and trade, they will need an expiring contract the size of Gordon's to make it work in addition to future draft capital. Would you prefer a late 2022 FRP over Brunson? Is there absolutely no one in the NBA you would be willing to add on a contract in the $15-35M range instead of a late 2022 FRP?

 

Queen is not under contract for next year.

Neither is Gordon if you trade him.

That's 4 spots. Fine use the other spot on Queen if you want.

4 > 3 or 3=3 and that doesn't even count the spots you clear up in other ways. Waive Matthews (not guranteed). Send out Nwaba as expiring. Cut KPJ next time he drives home at halftime. etc

A GM claiming he "doesn't have enough slots" to make his team better is just about the weakest-sauce excuse there can be. if you don't have enough slots you make room! This happens literally every day in the NBA.

Finally YOU DON'T HAVE TO USE THE 2022 FIRST IT CAN BE TRADED TO EITHER MOVE UP, DOWN OR WHATEVER -as can your entire roster.

 

I don't think there's a "High value #1" to be had .... unless its some combination of EG / Pick / Wood that brings back a higher quality pick or player.
If it ends with EG expiring or the return is a #2 .... I'll be just as irritated as the rest of you. I just see the preservation of that asset beyond this offseason as ideal. Keeping the bullet in the chamber should a deal come along that you can add it to .... or turning it into a random protected pick in 26 or 27 would be fantastic.

There's also the issue of contract matching should a big time player come along. Aside from EG & Wood the Rockets largest contract is Jalen Green's $8.9m.

EG's contract alone lets you take back up to ~$23.3m The fact that it's expiring after next season makes it desirable in such a trade.


Wall's contract is still the immovable object ....

 

I think where this team and organization is at though--going through a rebuild and not just a retool--there's no need to keep Gordon on your team in order to use him for salary matching purposes. If that's the goal then the assumption is that between now and next trade deadline, there's going to be a player that checks most or all of these boxes:

-relatively young, let's say less than 27 since Wood's 26 doesn't fit our timeline (sarcasm intended)
-is in the middle of an extension paying him at least $23 million a year
-can be considered as a cornerstone player for this franchise over the next few years at the very least
-wants off of his current team

because why else hold onto Gordon for salary matching purposes if we are not trying to get a young All-Star-level player right? Those players, from what I see at this moment, are far and few in between. Maybe Trae Young hates it in Atlanta? Maybe Boston has an epic collapse and is dangling Jaylen Brown to get back assets to retool around Tatum? Maybe Luka wakes up one day and decides he wants to play for the better team off of 45? If that's the goal/assumption then yea we probably want to keep the powder keg dry but how realistic is it for any of these players to all of a sudden jump ship? If a player like that isn't available for trade by next year's deadline then basically we'd either accept whatever we can get for Gordon or we keep him and let his contract expire. Either scenarios are objectively worse than netting a 2022 1st rounder, even one in the 20s.

I'm not saying a player that I just described would never be available but that kind of strategy is creeping into "I'm taking a gamble" territory.

 

I think EG expiring as a Rocket or getting a future 2nd round pick is the most likely outcome.

It is not creeping. It is a gamble. Drafting a player with a late FRP in a normal year is also a gamble.

This is too restrictive. Player could be making anything from about $15M to about $35M (Wood/others could be combined if needed) and only needs to be a better value than a late 2022 FRP.

I'm fine taking chances if the potential payoff is huge and the risk is small like a late 2022 FRP. Small things won't fix the Rockets.