It's Dwyane Wade other than that I agree. For Sengun he'll never be a great defender cuz he is only 6'10 with short arms. But he doesnt look like a liability either he'll waver between mediocre to above average IMO.
Tier 1A - Hall of Famer/Generational These are players viewed as better than a 50/50 chance of being Hall of Famers before they even enter the league. These are players that teams tank specifically for and teams usually follow for years. Examples include Shaquille O'Neal, David Robinson, Magic Johnson, LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Zion Williams was borderline in this group according to the general scouting community. There were a few scouts that had Cade Cunningham in this group, but in general he was not. Tier 1B - Franchise guys These are guys that typically are viewed as the #1 pick in the draft from when the season starts, until the season ends. These guys are usually #1 in their class by some scouts dating back to high school. They typically are highly recruited out of high school and some scouts discuss them as being in Tier 1A, but most scouts are not certain. Some classes have more than one player like this. If you were to take all the draft classes and do an average, there is usually about one of these players per draft. A few have multiples and some have none. Examples include Chris Webber, Cade Cunningham, Dwight Howard, Alonzo Mourning, Luka Doncic, Carmelo Anthony, KAT, Ben Simmons. Tier 2A - Possible franchise players/All stars These are guys that are viewed as likely all stars that could potentially be more but they have some serious questions about their games. Examples include Ja Morant, Chet Holmgren, Yao Ming, Kyrie Irving, Anthony Edwards, Trae Young, Jalen Green, Evan Mobley These are typically the guys that go #1 or at least in the top 2-3 in drafts that lack clear cut franchise type guys. Sometimes the players become superstars and Hall of Famers, and sometimes they flame out like Anthony Bennett. Tier 2B - Likely long term starters/possible all stars These are guys that usually don't go #1 or even #2, but they are lottery picks. They usually either have some perceived athletic limitation or skill limitation that will keep them from being franchise players, BUT they have other skills that will allow them to be long term starters with a chance of being more. Examples include Shane Battier, Stromile Swift, Andrew Bogut. Sometimes these players go as high as #1-2 but in most drafts they go in the 3-10 range of the draft. Tier 3A - Long term starters/rotation players & boom/bust players These are guys that scouts are mixed on because of physical limitations or lack of performance in college or are so raw they may not "get it". The most outstanding examples of these guys that "hit" are Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Jokic. For ever hit there are usually at least 5-10 that are out of the league or rotations in 5 years. Also "hitting" with these picks are subjective, as some are like Ty Lue or Markief Morris. They are relevant for awhile but are largely expendable. The 2022 Draft Class I don't think that there is a Tier 1A player in this draft class or even a Tier 1B player in this class. However there are more Tier 2A players and Tier 2B players in this draft than usual. To be clear, that doesn't mean there will not be a franchise player in this draft. I suspect that out of Holmgren, Smith and Ivey there will be at least one Hall of Famer and possibly two. However all three players have too many question marks. Here is my updated Board: 1. Chet Holmgren (2A) - With more film, people are starting to really break down his game to look for flaws. The biggest issue (and what keeps him from being in Tier 1A is his frame. There are some scouts, especially older ones that do not think he will physically be able to play the 4/5 in the league or that he will break down. This was the general consensus around the league for decades but with rule changes and position-less basketball, there are a lot of younger scouts and people around the league that believe he will be fine physically. For his part, for the most part he has been as good or better than advertised and has shown toughness. He is highly skilled and motivated. Because of the wide variance with him, where he goes in the draft will depend on which teams have the first couple picks in the draft. Even if the teams picking 1-3 are risk adverse, expect a team or teams to trade up into the top 2-3 to draft him. I have him #1 on my board because he has the potential to be possibly the best player in the league for a period of time because he makes a massive impact defensively, he has a lot of potential offensively and is a very hard worker with no off the court red flags. He also has a genuine cruelty streak to him that most great players have. He is the kid that burned ants with a magnifying glass. 2. Jabari Smith (2A) There are a lot of things to like about Jabari Smith and even some hints that he could become a force on offense, but there are also a lot of question marks about whether he will ever carry an offense or be more of a #2-3 offensive guy. The good on offense is that he is already an elite shooter from 3 with a strong and long frame. He has the athleticism to play at a very high level. He also is a guy that can take and make some incredibly difficult shots. There is some evidence that players with this ability have heightened value in the playoffs. He has gone one on one a few times and looked good and he is really good in transition. All of this will mean that he should at a minimum be a Rashard Lewis type player with a slightly higher defensive floor. His ceiling is considered lower than Holmgren because he struggles to put the ball on the floor and score or create for others. A high end outcome for him would be Paul George. Not quite a real franchise player, but someone every team in the league would love to have on the floor and a multiple time all star. 3. Jaden Ivey (2A) He isn't quite the athlete that Morant is, or prime Dwayne Wade; but he is pretty close to that level of athlete. His speed around the corner is elite, possibly the best in the NBA right now outside of Morant. He also is elite at body control and deceleration. He handles contact extremely well and he also has a nearly 7'0" wingspan. So why isn't he #1 in the class? Well he still needs to refine his shooting and ball handling some and there is a debate over whether or not he will be a good enough passer to be an elite combo guard. He also needs to work on pace. His supporters will rightly point out that he is on a team will atrocious spacing and that they are an interior offense. Both of those are true, but there is just enough questions about the playmaking to keep him from the super elite. I personally think he will be at a minimum an all star a few times. His skills outside of passing are excellent and I am optimistic that his passing will improve. 4. Shaedon Sharp (2B) - This is very much a patient, boom or bust selection. He physically is in the 2A category but he hasn't played this year and there just isn't much tape of him playing a normal game against elite talent. So with him everything is projection and that keeps him out of a higher tier. He has the vertical, he has the shot, he has the speed and size and he is shifty. However does it translate in game conditions? How well does he pass in game? How is his work ethic? His selection will be entirely based on private workouts. Someone will look at him and be enamored and convince themselves he is in the same mold as McGrady, Kobe, Harden type mold and with patience will be a franchise player. I have not seen enough of him to offer an opinion. 5. Paolo Banchero (2B) - Not much to add. My concerns are based on his inefficiency, his defensive limitations and that "bully ball" doesn't always translate in the NBA. I am sure people will say I have him too low, but I still like him, I just don't think he is as good as those ahead of him. He is a lottery pick in every draft, but I think he isn't top 3 in most drafts.
6. AJ Griffin (2B) - You know you will get a shooter and a very efficient player. However can he create for others and himself? How much did the poor spacing at Duke hinder his game? Is he a good athlete or a great athlete? He is another guy that will largely be drafted based on private workouts. 7. Keegan Murray (2B) - I have had Murray in the middle lottery to late lottery all year long based on what I think he will struggle at doing (playmaking/defending), but we are at the part of the draft where we have to consider what Murray DOES do well. He has an okay body and is athletic enough to score. He has the upside as a #2-3 scorer on the team in the mold of a Carron Butler. That is pretty damn good. There is also a 10% chance the passing and defending part of his game develop to the point where he is a borderline franchise player. At #7 that is pretty good. 8. Bennedict Mathurin (3A) - He has helped his draft status as much as anyone in the league other than Keegan Murray. He isn't viewed as a future star but has a high floor because of his athleticism, measurables and effort. He is viewed as a possible long term starter with the potential to be a good defender and possibly a 18-20 point a game scorer. He is a good piece for a team set at a lot of spots but needs a guard. 9. Jalen Duren (3A) If Jalen were in the draft 25 years ago, he would likely be the #1 pick. He is relatively long and strong and moves really well. He has shown the progression of a post game and will sometimes hit a mid range jumper. Even his ball handling 25 years ago would be considered better than adequate. The problem is that the game has changed a lot, and he is in the infancy of developing skills want out of a top lottery pick. He is a fairly safe pick if a team can get him to buy in. He can be a Clint Capela type player that teams would target later in the lottery. However, he is higher because he has started showing enough with his shot and even as a passer, that there is a chance that he can be a good enough offensive player to keep himself on the floor so he can shine defensively where he is a surprisingly agile player on the perimeter as a defender. Most likely he is a rotational big like Capela that has to come off the court is certain matchups, but the upside is tantalizing enough to go in the top 10. 10. Johnny Davis (3A) Crafty and has a high basketball IQ, draws contract well and a competitor. He isn't in the same class as Ivey and even Mathurin because he doesn't shoot well from the outside and isn't a great athlete. Someone in the lottery will take him knowing if his outside shot falls he can be a plus starter and very good scorer for a long time. 11. Tari Eason 12. Kendall Brown 13. Nikola Jovic 14. Ty Ty Washington 15. Jaden Hardy - Someone will roll the dice on his speed and improving playmaking. 16. Walker Kessler - Elite shot blocker, under-rated athlete that is really long, but at best he becomes a passable 3 point shooter. Has value but limitations too. 17. Blake Wesley - Not talked about much but has the game and attributes to be a starter in the league for a long time. 18. Dyson Daniels 19. Tristan Vukcivic 20. Jean Montero 21. Jeremy Sochan 22. Yannick Nzosa 23. Ibou Badji 24. Jordan Dingle 25.EJ Liddell 26. Ochai Ogbaji 27. Zach Edey 28. Marjon Beauchamp 29. David Roddy 30. Hunter Maldonado Others: Wendall Moore, Oscar Tshiebwe, Bryce McGowans, Jamal Mashburn Jr., Tyler Kolek, Hugo Besson, Matteo Spagnolo, Ariel Hukporti. I am sure I have forgotten some guys... this is mostly off the top of my head.
I think you are right on the money with Sharp at #4. If we fall outside the top 3, then I'd be very happy to get him.
I’m really starting to think that Ivey may end up the best pro in this draft. I will be curious to see how Chet progresses through the tournament against a real big or two. I don’t think he gets matched up with Duren much, unfortunately. Duren is probably going to get in foul trouble early against Timme. Duren will have to be way more patient on defense against Timme’s multiple fakes in the paint. Williams will probably be tasked against Chet and Williams is also extremely foul prone. If the Rockets had the first pick in the draft, I would either go Jabari for the combo of potential and fit or Ivey as BPA.
For me Jabari is the clear no 1. His floor is Rashard Lewis who can defend, and that should be the end of conversation. I mean Rashard by himself was already pretty good so add defense to that and you essentially have a PF version of Klay Thompson and a top 10-15 player in the league. Yes guys like Banchero, Ivey and Holmgren can be generational players, but with Smith you know he is gonna be good no matter what. Sharp reminds of Dion Waiters. Remember that dude? People also never saw him play but his agents released some tapes vs high school comp and he looked like Dwade 2.0. The Cavs took the bait then it turns out he is raw AF and also lacks the personality to work on his game. The mind is a powerful thing, if we are given only bits and pieces of info we fill in the rest with our imagination. Sharp can turn into the best player of this class, but with no info or even insight why he didnt play I dont think anybody in the top 5-10 should be taking a chance on him, not so with so much talent still on the board.
I've got Ja Morant higher than you do. And I'd put Wilt, Kareem, MJ, Dream and Timmy in generational category above Robinson and AD. Otherwise you're spot on regarding the tiers in this draft.
I think Kennedy Chandler and Mark Williams may be 1st rounders. Impressive that you can recall so many names off the top of your head. I would’ve forgotten a lot more guys.
Not to speak for @Nook but I think he has the examples as pre draft evaluations. Which is why someone like Jordan isn’t 1a. Ralph Sampson is probably a good example. Tim Duncan without question was a guy teams were desperate for. Morant is becoming a franchise guy but his predraft grade is more to where Nook has him.
Humor me if you would @Nook Taking your own advice to yourself and applying it to my own thinking has got be really being open to the top 3 prospects and how I rank then. The truth is the more I see Ivey, the more I just "feel" he is the special one. His wingspan is amazing. His deceleration is very good. His explosion is very good. I've been chet/jabari 1/2 all year and partly been brainwashed and talked about so much that's its become so obviously accepted. But failing to change my mind or going against the "norm" has me thinking maybe I faulter to the same mistakes you've referenced. If I'm 1, I still take chet I think but ivey has infested my thoughts with his potential. I no longer see it as chet and Jabari alone in their own tier. I see it being a 3 player tier 1 now. And I just have this "feeling" that ivey will be the best player. Anyways I'm curious if it's more recency bias or if you feel similar.
It's not due to recency bias it's just that the data we have seen shows us big explosive and skilled guards make an impact in the NBA. It's the same reason people were pro Green over Mobley last year. Just like Green Ivey may not turn out to be the best player in this draft, but you are sure you'll get a good player if you draft him. I'd still take Jabari over him given Jabari's floor spacing and defensive potential meshes so well with Green, but after Jabari I'm fine with either Chet or Ivey.
For what it’s worth, this is how I feel as well. Ivey has that absolute “it factor” whenever you see him play. He just looks like he can flat out ball, is special and knows it. I wouldn’t be surprised if 5 years from now Ivey is on a Ja Morant like career path and teams who passed on him wish they didn’t. That said, I’m taking Chet #1. Jabari and Ivey are 2A/2B.
I think Griffin needs to be downgraded given his injury history. He's not even fully recovered from an ankle sprain he went down again. Sucks cuz I like his skillset and shooting ability but the risk is too great besides his injuries were a dislocated knee and a sprain. Those arent exactly ligament tears but it kept him out for most of the season and he still wasnt 100% before he got injured again.
I feel the same. So I want a top3 pick. If Ivey were there at 3 would the rockets take him though? We will probably never know though. As several things would need to happen for that hypothetical.
Give me the best defender with the high 1st. If Stone can trade back into the lottery give me Griffin. If not give me Chandler with the later pick. I'm really not familiar with this yrs class.
I agree -- Griffin is such a skilled player with great size for a wing, but he doesn't seem to have the same athleticism he showed earlier in his high school career. It's not a surprise that he's got to work his way back, but from what I've seen, he hasn't really flashed that same level. You have to wonder if it will ever be back. He still has the look and feel of a solid role player and starter who can be effective without the ball, but I'm less excited about that with our first pick at least.
