To me, AJ Terrell and the certainty of the #8 pick are very, very valuable. If that is the foundation of the package, I'd be fine with something like two firsts, AJ, and additional lesser compensation. To me, AJ and two firsts (including this year's #8) from Atlanta are, even without additional compensation, more valuable than most of the speculated Saints' packages.
Caserio could definitely try to squeeze a bit more out knowing whatever team is basically locked into DW4. It’d be a shady ass move but it’s plausible.
Texans should wait until Matty Ice has a suitor and Deshaun has verbalized he is ready to go- we then, as an organization, announce, we are no longer happy with the current trade, and we are not excepting the deal
If it's true that Atl is offering two FRPs and AJ Terrell, lets break down this offer on that basis alone v. the Saints. According to the NFL draft value chart, the #8 pick is worth 1400 points, and the 18th pick is worth 900. In other words, it would likely take a 2023 FRP to move up from 18 to 8. Additionally, AJ Terrell is very, very good. PFF ranked him second overall among cornerbacks last season. His value, to me, is at least a FRP. In other words, I believe the #8 pick and AJ Terrel are worth, alone, as much as three FRPs from the Saints. That isn't even getting into the fact that the Falcons' 2023 pick is likely to be higher with Deshaun than the Saints' 2023 pick would be with him.
This is all true. But the rumored asking price was 3 firsts a couple seconds AND young players. That should be the minimum. If it’s 2 first, 2 twos and AJ. That is short either a player or a first
I’ve heard that too, but not sure it’s entirely accurate. Any of the teams Watson spoke with had a basic framework in place for compensation to Houston, but there was some wiggle room. In other words, Caserio didn’t just have multiple blockbuster trades completely worked out before those meetings, but the basics were pretty well defined. At this point we are all just waiting for the specifics, and for that matter if it’s even still Atlanta. I’m of the understanding that it is, but who knows? Nothing I’ve heard is iron clad at this point. Hell, it could all change. I guess Atlanta still has some other things they are still working on. I’m not deep inside on this at all so I don’t know anything that is iron clad specific. We’ll see soon enough!
Adams, still a top 5 WR, was traded for (maybe) a 1st and 2nd round pick. Wilson would make a better argument, since he was traded for quarterback Drew Lock, tight end Noah Fant, defensive end Shelby Harris, two first- and second-round picks apiece and a fifth-round selection, but doesn't have a possibility of suspension hanging over his head (and the team and NFL embarrassment of civil charges and awards), but instead he is an immensely popular HOF QB that DEN saw their best chance of getting to the Super Bowl. Compare that to watson (a player with the baggage he has that either team will have to work overtime trying to restore his and their reputations)... and to two teams that realistically aren't seen as SB contenders right away.
While true, there are two additional considerations. First, the three firsts speculation, if I remember correctly, started well before draft orders were set. A certain #8 pick is worth more than an uncertain FRP. Also, AJ Terrell is way better than anyone else I've seen speculated as part of a trade package aside from Pitts. He's not just a "young player." He's potentially a franchise CB.
I like Terrell, but I think Burns and Chinn are better player package personally. If we compare it to the NO package you take Atl. But that’s selling your own value short imo
I like Terrell and Lindstrom a lot, but even though I like how @Houston77 laid out the value for AJ and #8, I think Watson's age (26) and ability to be a franchise QB for another decade trumps all of the negative press and any suspension he might get. 2 young building block players, 3 1sts and at least 2 2nds or other picks are the minimum we should get for Watson. ATL should be able to extract other draft capital for Ryan. If its just 2 1sts, Terrell and some change, then I think Cas will get a "D-" from my perspective.
Imagine thinking the only bad people are those that have been criminally charged and convicted of something...
This is fair price for both teams. Atlanta can keep 1 of their 2nd rounders in this draft, they will get more draft capital after trading Ryan and they will have cap space in 2023 to build around Watson. Texans get 2 very good young starters and the picks they need to continue the rebuild.
1 thing to consider with all this is Watson May still have a NFL suspension, so even just 2 firsts could end up being huge (obviously in addition to some top tier younger talent). I’m not sweating 3 vs 2, is my point, in particular if the trade is with ATL.
So one team’s shitty offer that barely meets the asking price is equal to another team’s offer that doesn’t meet the asking price? Got it.
