https://www.si.com/nba/2022/03/16/n...cts-chet-holmgren-paolo-banchero-jabari-smith Holmgren has received quite a bit of hype nationally, and his impact on the Bulldogs’ success is undeniable, but opinions I’ve heard around the NBA vary more widely than one might assume from what you hear and read elsewhere. Holmgren has played well this season and is still trending toward a top-three selection: listed at 7'0”, 190 with a 7'6” wingspan, he’s a high-quality defensive prospect who projects best not at center, but as more of a roving, shot-blocking four-man, and preferably alongside a stronger, more physical big. That role will enable him to use his length around the rim and as a rebounder while limiting how much his lack of strength can be exposed. While opponents have had success attacking him in the post, his impact on the defensive end has been consistent and enhances the perception that Holmgren has a comfortable value floor in the pros. If you assume his defense translates meaningfully, then Holmgren can be pretty valuable even if he never expands his offensive repertoire much. Right now, he is a threat to finish lobs and has had success pushing the ball in transition, though he may not win open-court foot races in the NBA. He projects as a reliable jump shooter, but can be streaky: Holmgren is making 41% of attempts from distance, but has shot just 27% from deep in 12 games against Tier A opponents (as classified by KenPom). He’s highly efficient (70.4 TS%), but NBA execs have been watching closely to see how Holmgren deals with opponents that counter him with appreciable size and strength. He played poorly in Gonzaga’s two recent games against Saint Mary’s, which made a concerted effort to hit him early and more or less neutralized him on offense. Potential matchups against Memphis, UConn, Texas Tech or Duke, physical teams that can make him uncomfortable, would be analyzed closely. The NBA places much more stock in those settings: Holmgren can enhance his case as a top prospect with strong showings in those types of games, or raise more questions if he struggles. … As for Banchero, opinions I’ve heard have been vacillating over the past six weeks after some middling performances: he is no longer as much of a real candidate at No. 1, but remains a good bet to go in the top five. I spent three days last week at the ACC tournament evaluating Banchero and a Duke team with five projected first-rounders. He’s supremely skilled for his size and at his best when he keeps the game simple, making quick decisions and allowing his passing vision and delivery to shine while attacking mismatches. While Banchero isn’t a rim protector, I thought his effort defensively and on the glass improved over the course of the week. He remains a great fit for positionless offense who will complement better players on a good team, as long as he shoots. Unfortunately, Banchero appears to be going through a present crisis of faith in his jump shot, which NBA scouts agree was in a much better place back in November. In a vacuum, it’s a good idea for him to pare down his shot selection, but he’s developed an inconsistent, minor hitch at the top of his release, and seems to be lacking for confidence at the foul line and from three-point range. This is something he can absolutely iron out over time, but in the short-term, it makes him a lot easier for opponents to defend. It’s also a part of his eval that potential suitors have to think hard about: if Banchero doesn’t comfortably project as a good jump shooter in the long haul, it will be much harder to leverage mismatches with his his average explosiveness, keep defenses honest, and generate easy buckets. Ultimately, his versatility gives him too many pathways to success to be overly worried, but better shooting performances in the tourney would help assuage these concerns.
Murray or Griffin at #5 will be interesting. I was skeptical about Murray earlier in the season. Felt like he resorted to too much post up/bully ball, and wasn't particularly creative with driving or vision. Still don't think he's great at creating off the bounce or for others, but he's shown he's a legit perimeter threat that can get his shot off in different ways, and there's always value in a combo forward that can score at 3 levels. On top of that, his rim protection is decent to go with passable perimeter/PnR defense. It's funny that a 20+ ppg scorer is one of the more "boring" picks of the lottery. On the other hand, you have to wonder what AJ Griffin would be like after 3 years.. When he's 21 like Murray is. The tools are there. His shot has a weird base and hitch which works right now, but i'm worried it's too slow for him to be a sniper in the NBA. Will smoothing out his mechanics open up his game? He looks a little stiff, but you hope he'll look better when he's a full year removed from injury. His handle and drives have been looking sharper as of late. Synergy says ~49% of his offense is spot up attempts! I know Moore, Keels, and Banchero are all playmakers, but you gotta give this kid more opportunities. Could say his role at Duke is hiding his game..
Give me Smith and Kessler. They played together in college and would be a great duo in Rocket's red. If you don't get Smith, take Chet and Kessler. Two 7's but with games that complement each other. Then your big rotation is set for the next 10 years.
Chet seemingly not having a great game, but has 12/15/4 with 5 blocks and 10 minutes left on the clock. I hope Zags make a deep run and we get to see as much of him as possible.
It’s just how Gonzaga plays as a team. The system isn’t designed for Chet to get 20 looks a game and that style of play has earned them the top spot in the country. Timme is “the guy” and it works.
Completely agree. Been one of my arguments is that he’s been so special as “complimentary” player and not been the sole focus of the team vs a Jabari/Banchero. His upside is tremendous and such a high iq player. He doesn’t force hardly anything and that’s why he’s so efficient.
Only been following of late, for people that know of both Chet and Mobley, if you had to pick one player who would it be?
