Way too early draft poll

• What is the future of starting center Christian Wood?
• Is there still a belief of playing two bigs together, especially if Wood departs and Sengun is the starter?
• Is the team sold on Kevin Porter Jr. as the point guard of the future?
• Will there be a focus on improving the defense on draft night?
• What is the answer at small forward?
• With the second draft pick, is it about talent or fit? Could that pick be moved?

Vecenie: To me, the answers are pretty easy — at least in regard to making a draft decision at the top. I don’t really consider Wood when making this choice. I don’t think his defensive effort is consistently good enough to be the kind of player that helps a team win, and I don’t think he’s really on the same timeline as the other youngsters given that his contract expires next year. And given the way this season has gone, I don’t feel awesome about offering an extension, either.

I do believe that you can play a big with Sengun, but it has to be a rim-protecting floor spacer. There is one guy at the top of the draft who can do that, which we’ll discuss momentarily.

It’s possible Porter is an answer in the backcourt, but much like Wood, I don’t think you consider him when making this decision. He’s showcased some positive things this year — his on-ball defense has improved (even if I still worry about him losing energy off the ball), and he’s been drastically better over his last 20 or so games at not throwing away possessions either will ill-timed shots or poor decisions as a passer — but I also think you need more than two good perimeter players in today’s NBA. If the best player on the board is a guard you think fits well with Green, you take him and let Porter run the second unit.

Defensively, there has to be an impetus on some level to improve, if only because the team has less defensive talent than any other in the league. Particularly, if you believe Green and Sengun are the two guys you’re looking toward the future with, you have to surround those two with plus defenders. Sengun has been a disaster on that end this season. Green has been better since the All-Star break but hasn’t been what I’d call a net neutral, either. Green has a better chance to get to that solid level, but Sengun plays a more important defensive role. All of this is to say: I don’t love the idea of selecting a non-defender with this draft pick to join this young core. You can maybe select a neutral one, but a negative defender could be bad.

I don’t know if the Rockets are necessarily at the point where they need to find an answer to an exact roster question. But the team certainly could stand to start building with a few wings who can both shoot and defend. Having said that, though, I think this team should be taking the best talent available in the 2022 draft as long as you believe that talent can be a net neutral defender or better.

Here is how I’d rank the top six players in the 2022 NBA Draft class, with a particular bent toward the Rockets and how they are building moving forward. I’m going to take high-upside Kentucky wing Shaedon Sharpe out of the mix here, given that Sharpe has not made any indication on his plans following his spring semester at Kentucky.

1. Chet Holmgren, F/C, Gonzaga — 7-foot-1, 190 pounds

Holmgren is my No. 1 player in the class right now. Why? I think he’s the most complete. Offensively, he’s a 40 percent-plus 3-point shooter who has shown that he can also use his length to finish inside. His 70 percent true-shooting percentage is among the highest in college basketball. He passes well and can handle the ball on the break after grabbing and going off the glass. Then on defense, he’s an elite rim protector with his length, toughness and timing. He plays well positionally and doesn’t miss rotations. His gap defense is terrific for a teenager. He rebounds despite his lack of overall size. He’s not an elite athlete, and that could eventually limit his upside as a shot creator, but his balance at his size is unbelievable. I wouldn’t rule him out of being a 20-point-per-game scorer at some point while also having All-Defense upside.

The thing with Holmgren is that his game is incredibly scalable toward winning situations as long as you believe in his frame continuing to fill out. Teams do have worries about that. In general, teams struggle to conceptualize something they haven’t seen before, and Holmgren’s mix of skills at his incredibly skinny frame is genuinely unique, realistically, in the last 30 years of the NBA. If you’re the Rockets, though, I’d absolutely take Holmgren if they’re lucky enough to get the No. 1 pick. I have him as the best player, first and foremost. But more than that, I think it’s hard to design a player that would be a better fit with Green and Sengun.

Sengun could handle a lot of the interior defensive issues when guys try to post up, with Holmgren lurking as an interior defender. And Holmgren would help clean up for Sengun’s lack of foot speed on defense with his help-side length and rim protection. It would be a more dynamic version of Holmgren’s current situation at Gonzaga, where he plays next to All-American scoring big Drew Timme. He fills the two-big need, the fit-with-Sengun need, the defense need, and he’s a terrific player from a culture perspective as the Rockets build out a hopeful contender. Yeah, this is a home run.

2. Jabari Smith, F, Auburn — 6-foot-10, 220 pounds

Smith is about as talented a big shooter as I can remember evaluating. His shooting is genuinely an elite skill for his age. At 6-foot-10, Smith averages 17 points while hitting 43 percent on better than five 3-point attempts per game. And realistically, I can’t remember evaluating a more projectable shot for a player 6-foot-10 or taller. His ability to get to that shot on stepbacks from 3-point range is pretty outrageous. Per Synergy, he’s making his catch-and-shoot attempts at an absurd 63.7 effective field-goal percentage and his pull-ups at a 47.5 effective field-goal percentage. These are monster numbers for anyone, let alone an 18-year-old big man who takes about three pull-up jumpers per game in half-court settings.

On top of that, Smith is a really sharp defender who moves well laterally and generally is available in help rotations. I wouldn’t say he’s a totally impactful defender, but he’s really solid for his age. His hands are active for his size, and he catches some weakside blocks from time to time. His best spot is going to be as a four who allows teams to stay big while also getting skill on the court. The areas for improvement with Smith are generally as a shot creator. Right now, his only consistent move is going to his stepback jumper going toward his left. He doesn’t finish particularly well at the rim in the half court and doesn’t really create much going forward in half-court settings. His handle isn’t all that tight right now. There are flashes, but it’s not consistently tight enough to pull off complex moves. Having said that, being 6-foot-10 with a high release point gives him a ton of room for error.

With the Rockets, this is the type of talent that you just take and not really worry about fit. But if Sengun proves he can play center consistently, Smith would be a really fun fit. Plus, his ability to shoot would really help to space the floor for Green’s shot creation. I think Smith probably profiles best as the second offensive option taking advantage of moving defenses that have to collapse on a guard who breaks them down.

3. Paolo Banchero, F, Duke — 6-foot-10, 245 pounds

More than the other two, this is an example of just taking the best talent and being happy with it. Banchero is a terrific shot creator in the mid-post, possessing elite footwork and ballhandling for a player with this level of size and strength. He’ll jab-step to get a man off balance before driving and pulling up for a midrange jumper. He’ll pump-fake into a pound dribble and into a right-to-left crossover stepback pull-up. He can pound-dribble left into a spin right to get to the rim. His ability to pull off complex moves to get separation is just ridiculous for a teenager his size. You match him on the block, he’s too fast and polished for bigs and too strong for small players. He’s averaging 17 points, eight rebounds and three assists. And as teams have figured out how to double him, he’s gotten excellent at passing out of doubles.

The big question with Banchero involves what the role would be for him defensively. I actually think he’s pretty good, rotationally, and has good-enough feet mixed with strength even if his lateral quickness isn’t awesome. He hasn’t gotten roasted a ton out on switches on the perimeter because he has natural basketball sense and understands angles. I do worry a bit about what that lack of terrific lateral speed looks like in NBA spacing, but I don’t think he’s the negative defender he’s been portrayed at times, either. Having said that, he is a bit in between positions. He’s not a good enough rim protector to play as a small-ball five with regularity. And even if he holds his own, he’s probably not a plus in space.

In terms of the Rockets, I don’t necessarily love his fit with Sengun because of their lack of length and lateral quickness mixed together. That feels concerning. But when deciding between Banchero and another player here, I just don’t think you can be all that worried about what the fit is with Sengun. I like the Turkish big from a skill perspective, but he isn’t so overwhelmingly good so far that you need to make it work with him. And if both Banchero and Sengun prove themselves to where they have to be on the court together, those are good problems to have for a rebuilding team.

 

4. Jaden Ivey, G, Purdue — 6-foot-4, 200 pounds

Again, this is just kind of a talent decision. Ivey has a higher upside than any other player on the board, especially if you take Sharpe out of the mix. He’d be another electric athlete to pair in the backcourt with Green, immediately forming one of the most electric transition attacks in the NBA. He has tremendous backcourt potential in the half court with Green on offense. Both are terrific creators. They’re developing pull-up shooters, particularly Green, who has looked awesome since the All-Star break. Both are explosive and will create opportunities.

And yeah, there will be growing pains. They’re both still developing as half-court offensive players. Ivey doesn’t have a crazy amount of in-game reps with ball screens yet because Purdue’s offense is so post-centric. He shows terrific passing flashes, but they end up being few and far between because of it. Green is still figuring out his shot selection and shot distribution, as well as when to make passing reads versus taking on his opponent to pull up. The margin for error for on-ball NBA players is incredibly low. Defenders and coaches developing schemes take advantage of any little skill questions and make life miserable. Ivey and Green have immense upside as soon as they get experience, but it’ll take some time. But seriously, Ivey will enter the NBA as one of the absolute best athletes in the league, and that’s worth a lot given how skilled he is already — even if he needs to keep getting better.

There also would be some effort-based defensive concerns. I don’t love Ivey at the point of attack and think he can waver a bit off the ball. Green has similar off-ball issues, although I think he’s shown some growth as the season has worn on. Still, I just take the talent and figure it out.

5. Keegan Murray, wing/forward, Iowa — 6-foot-8, 225 pounds

Dropping out of the top four would be bad for Houston. I do think the upside of some of the guys here starts to drop, and the variance in potential outcomes widens. To me, Murray is the best combination of high floor and reasonably high ceiling.

The Iowa forward is the most polished offensive player in the country right now, a legit shooter who has started knocking down shots off movement. He’s a downhill offensive terror in transition who gets to the lane and finishes above the rim. He cuts really well and always finds the soft spot in the defense. And on top of that, he can handle the ball and create his own shot from the midpost. Defensively, Murray is a good playmaker and has good instincts, but I do have some worries about his feet in space. He can get a bit heavy-footed at times.

The way I’m kind of imagining him is something like a Tobias Harris type of player — a potential top-50 guy in the league who isn’t quite an All-Star but puts up some incredibly efficient offensive seasons at volume while settling in nicely as a third option on a good team. There’s some upside beyond that, but I think that’s the most likely outcome for him. Harris has averaged 19/6/3 on a 48/39/85 shooting line in 354 games since 2018, so that’s not a slight at Murray. Harris will end up making around $250 million in his career. That’d be a great outcome for the player — and one to be pretty happy with at No. 5. It just think it’s a bit unlikely that taking Murray is a total home run.

6. A.J. Griffin, wing, Duke — 6-foot-6, 220 pounds

This is where things start to get a bit more theoretical. Griffin is the kind of player the Rockets need, a big wing who can be a secondary creator, space the floor and maybe take on some tough assignments. There have been games this year (Miami, the first North Carolina game, and the first Wake Forest game) where Griffin looks like he should be in the mix with Banchero to be a top-three pick . There also have been games (Virginia, Syracuse and North Carolina, where he played a combined 80 minutes and scored 11 points) where he has been almost entirely invisible.

So which is the real A.J. Griffin? At the end of the day, I’m willing to bet on the upside, because I don’t think Griffin’s role was established all that well from the start of the year. Because of that, he’s often relegated to being the fifth option for Duke. Trevor Keels and Wendell Moore have the ball more because they initiate the offense. Mark Williams ends up with it just as much because he’s so big and easy to hit on rolls toward the rim. Obviously Banchero is the offensive centerpiece. The touches Griffin gets aren’t always designed for him. And in general, Duke’s offense can bog down a bit more often than an offense this talented should because the guard play isn’t all that consistent.

Since he entered the starting lineup 20 games ago, Griffin has averaged 12 points on a 49/48/75 shooting line and generally looks great offensively within his role. Defensively, there have been some hiccups, but remember that this Duke team doesn’t really run a great scheme for its personnel and that Griffin missed the early portion of the season and practices with a knee injury, so he probably was behind the curve a bit. Speaking of injuries, teams absolutely will want to take a look at Griffin’s track record in terms of missing time. Like I said, there are some flags here, but as long as that checks out, it’s really hard to find 6-foot-6 wings with long arms and NBA athleticism who can shoot and create some shots.

 

Thanks for posting that JR, good stuff.

I might be in the minority but after Chet I love Banchero. I've watched a lot of him at Duke this year and I gotta say I'm sold. He's the size of a center with elite guard skills. You give him the ball and he is going to get buckets no doubt about it. Granted his defense is a little stifled by his lateral quickness but honestly I don't see why he couldn't be an above average defender in the NBA. His frame and strength will make up for a lot of other deficiencies.

In short, he just gets the game of basketball. He's not timid, the ball doesn't stop when it gets to him. He's going to make the right play. Whether he's making a scoring move or passing it to the right guy, he knows what to do with the rock.

Obviously I want Chet above anybody, but if the Rockets end up with Paolo I think it will be a home run. The dude is going to be a stud in the NBA.

 

https://nbadraft.theringer.com


There is absolutely no way the Chet shouldn't be all of the fan's #1 pick.

That's because we don't get fired if he gets hurt.

The only reason to pass on him for Smith is because of risk level. Chet is an all time prospect with an anomaly for anatomy.

The best guys in draft boards all have him 1 without question.

Mike Schmitz at ESPN.

Kevin O'Connor at Ringer

Sam Vecenie at The Athletic.

He's consensus #1 for every Draft Guru but teams have to be risk averse.

 

Not to say anyone should use RSCI rankings as gospel but the high school prospects that have been a consensus #1 prospect coming out of high school since 1998.

LeBron James (2003)
Dwight Howard (2004)
Greg Oden (2006)
Andrew Wiggins (2013)
RJ Barrett (2018)
Chet Holmgren (2021)

 

Chet, Banchero, Jabari in that order. As long as we get top 3 we're good, all these guys fit a position of need and have all-star potential. Banchero is the most bust-proof IMO, but I'd take a chance on Chet's upside.

 

It's gonna b holmgren or Smith for me.

 

The last 3 were underwhelming.

WIth Dwight, there was an issue with peak years and longevity as a star player.

 

Dwert was most definitely a superstar early in his career .... it just goes to show how much the game changed as his career went on. It was a big man's game in the post when he came into the league .... now its guards and wings who dominate the game.

I don't think he gets enough credit for some of those early years in Orlando being on bad teams where he put up crazy numbers.

Dwert's problem was he refused to evolve with the game .... had he been willing to play off of Harden rather than demanding post touches history may have turned out much differently.

 

Tankathon is giving me anxieties lol. I either get the 1st pick or 5th pick

 

I think Oden would have been a monster at the NBA level if he wasn't so fragile. Wiggins and Barrett are definitely yawn inducing.

 

March 17
*Keegan Murray/Iowa play at 2:10pm (TruTV)
*Chet Holmgren/Gonzaga play at 3:15pm (TNT)

 

but why?
lottery is just that, A LOTERRY

yanis pick no 15
middleton pick no 39
holiday pick no 17
bobby portis 22
nwora 45
serge ibaka 24
brook lopez 10
wess mathews - undrafted
connaughton 41
thanasis ante 51
grayson alen 21
bembrey 21
jevon carter 32
george hill 26

stop lying to yourself that it matters where you pick

 

thanks, would you trade Sengun for a top 10 pick ?

 

I’d trade Sengun nets pick and bucks pick next year for the 6th pick or maybe 7th.

I think. Maybe. I dunno

 

Chet demands the Rockets sign him only.

 

Ever watched the Truman Show?

People are used to living a lie as long as it is safe and living in a bubble.

 

He is about soul food.