Astros have a 10% chance to win the WS per FG - 3rd best odds in MLB and 2nd best in the AL after the Jays. However, I believe this is with LMJ if they are using their own depth charts. https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds I'm in favor of trading for one of Castillo and Montas given the uncertainty around LMJ. Given that each will be a FA in 2024 neither should require Pena but the Astros may need to part with one of Brown/Lee to make that happen. For comparison, Grove's pitching bot had LMJ at -0.41 xRun Value last season. Montas was at -.037 and Castillo at -0.53 for 2021, so each could be a good replacement for LMJ should he be out for the season. http://pitchingapp.pitchingbot.com/
I don't know why you are even mentioning the A's trading Montas or Manaea to the Astros. Unless we give up a couple prospects none of you want to lose it isn't happening.
The Astros have some money to spend and assets to trade if they are so inclined. I am a little surprised that the Astros haven't made a move on some of the players available that have gone to other teams at reasonable trade costs. When I texted about it I was told "be patient"..... but I admit I am curious what exactly is the end game here.
Unless the Astros sign Correa without an optout making Pena available for trade... I think they are more likely to sign Pineda than trade for one of the big name pitchers.
Maybe.... the cost of Sonny Gray wasn't insane. The A's didn't get a crazy return on paper for Bassitt either.
Any info on Grienke? I don't see anything about any teams showing an interest in him. Can he be brought back on a short term deal?
Bassitt's the guy I really would have wanted, there's zero chance Manaea ever plays for the Stros. No idea what the A's thoughts are regarding deals in the division.
Unless they get something they really love I hope they give it time on Odorizzi. Either we will need the innings from him and he could rebound or someone else might need major league level innings and pay a premium that pitching tends to bring. We have virtual nobody certain to lockdown for a full season.
I am willing to give Odorizzi another chance, at least to start the season. I think him signing so late last season and not going through Spring Training affected him and his endurance. I also think he had trouble getting used to the Astros analytical approach to pitching and he just wasn't comfortable with it. If he can regroup he could be an effective starter for us.
Assuming Dusty doesn't order the code red on him in ST. That relationship should be an interesting one to watch given some of Jake's interview responses after getting hooked early a couple of times last year.
Manaea sucks. Montas is good but is nearing FA and are the A’s even interested in competing for the division before 2024 when he hits FA? Generally, and with the obvious caveat that different orgs value players differently, I don’t see the A’s or Reds nabbing a top 50 prospect like Peña in exchange for an arb eligible pitcher with two years of control. That’s the kind of player that warrants one or two fringe top 100 prospects.
I will defer to Miller, Murphy and Click because they have been pretty good at handling pitching. I don't know if they want to move him to clear money or if they just don't like him or if he just wants out. The Astros have talked to Danny Duffy but he is still not ready to pitch.
Montas has a lot more value. He has multiple years of control and is coming off a better season and he has more upside based on his stuff. I think you can likely get a top 100 prospect for him. I wouldn't give a top 100 prospect for Manaea.
Thats true. I would definitely be willing to give up one of Brown and Lee for Montas along with some other pieces.
Been quiet around MLB on Zach Greinke. His next contract should be a fraction of his last one. If Lance is going to be out awhile, if not the whole season, should Zach be an option to bring back?
I like Pineda and Duffy as cheap upside plays although given the lack of available free agent pitching I don’t know how cheap they’ll be. I liked Greinke but at this point he’s no better than Odorizzi.
There are 11 teams with <10% chance of making the playoffs per fangraphs. Of those, the Tigers Rangers appear to be trying to compete anyway. The Diamondbacks, Cubs, Rockies, Nats, and Royals appear to be in an odd no-man’s land where they aren’t actively trying to compete but also haven’t embraced rebuilding. The Orioles, A’s, Pirates, and Reds appear to be at varying stages of rebuilding but all are likely marketing any short term assets. Here’s a hypothetical blockbuster Astros trade for each of those teams: Astros get: SP John Means CF Cedric Mullins Orioles get: SS Jeremy Pena RHP Hunter Brown RHP Cristian Javier RHP Forrest Whitley IF Joe Perez Astros get: SP Frankie Montas CF/2B Tony Kemp A’s get: RHP Hunter Brown RHP Forrest Whitley RHP Bryan Abreu Astros get: CF Bryan Reynolds Pirates get: C Korey Lee RHP Hunter Brown RHP Forrest Whitley RHP Peter Solomon Astros get: SP Luis Castillo Reds get: RHP Hunter Brown RHP Forrest Whitley 3B Joe Perez 1B/LF JJ Matijevic
