Not impressed with Banchero or Griffin or Holmgren. Ivey and Smith are the safe bets this year, along with Murray.
Does that usually apply for a guy who is a second rounder and gets moved to late first, or late first up a few spots? My understanding was that the top guys are who they are. We often see a top prospect barely even play and then get shut down and still go top 5 (i.e Kyrie etc). From the original post I responded to it was about moving up into the top 5. I can see going from 7 to top 5, but from what people have stated on here going from mid first to top 5 does not really happen. I think part of the reason is that the best players may not necessarily make it deep into the tourney so we don't get to see them shine as much as some lesser player who we just get to see more games of. For example we would think highly of Suggs last year and maybe forget about Cade a bit since we didnt get to see them both play the same type of games in the tourney, it wouldnt effect where Cade would be drafted. I think the tournament is about being fortunate in being placed into the right situation, a little bit of luck involved there, which is why a scout may not put a lot of weight into it or try to change their draft order significantly based on it.
Thats still bad considering he is only shooting at the NCAA level. Check out how Cade and Mobley scored vs college comp and see their nos now.
In the past March Madness really boosted the stock of players, for example Stromile Swift got picked 4rth mostly due to his March Madness run. In recent years teams have become smarter, but to say MM has no effect is also wrong. For example if Chet Holmgren plays like a total scrub and gets dominated by some random center in the 1st round of MM he will prob lose all chance of being the no 1 pick.
Did you know that Cade Cunningham shot 44% in his lone college season? Mobley was not initiating an offense as a point forward either - just sayin'.
Did you know Cade was shooting 3s at 40% clip on 4 attempts a night in college? Mobley wasn't initiating offenses but he was a hell of a finisher in college at 62% TS. Obv now they're in the NBA their scoring efficiency has become worse than in college so it's kinda scary to me that Banchero isn't that efficient in college. He is trending to be another Tobias Harris who is basically a scorer pf with limited range. Of course Banchero has some playmaking skills so that puts him above Harris but I still don't think a playmaking Tobias Harris is great return for a top 5 pick for this team. KJ Martin for example is a better prospect than that already due to his athleticism, defensive upside and 3 pt range.
Right but you used FG% as your marker. Now it’s 3 pt %? Not arguing that Banchero is a better shooter. Although I could say that Banchero has higher defensive win shares, offensive win shares and naturally win shares in general when compared to Cades college season. Paolo also has more points produced. You can have a preference nothing wrong about that. I don’t think you can go wrong with any of them because they each offer a unique skill set with enough talent to develop and improve their weaknesses.
You're the one who used FG% as the marker, I talked about scoring in general. Cade takes more 3s than Banchero so his raw FG% would be lower, however TS% which accounts for that difference has Cade higher. However, also remember Cade is doing his scoring from outside while Banchero is doing his scoring from inside, so not only is Cade more efficient his scoring also provides more space for everyone else which is an unseen effect but contributes a lot to team scoring efficiency. I'm not that familiar with win shares but as I understand it Cade had garbage teammates in college so their team had few wins which would result in him having low win shares. OTH Duke being a top team with another top 5 recruit like AJ Griffin has more wins so that will increase his win shares accordingly. Regardless, I'm just pointing out players' scoring tends to drop once they go to NBA, so if Banchero is shooting 3s at 30% and only 47% fg there's a chance his nos will be be bad at the next level.
In that hypothetical scenario if he plays that bad, they likely lose. Since its one and done, would a team really not pick Chet because of one bad game? The top players are pretty important to their teams, if they play badly they are out, so the sample size would be small.
Sure but they already have some preconceived notions about these players. For Chet the main concern is can he handle bigger, stronger players at the next level so if he gets punked by some scrub and then gets an ankle sprain thats gonna raise some eyebrows. OTH if Banchero plays like the 2nd coming of Melo then he is gonna reinforce scouts' opinion on his superstardom, its def gonna boost his stock.
47-30-73 is definitely not as terrible as you make it sound for a guy that shows as many skills as Banchero does, and is still 2 years younger than Keegan Murray, who also couldn't shoot in his Freshman year.
You think Tobias Harris is a good return for a top 5 pick yes or no? Tobias Harris in college: 46-30-75 Nobody's considering Murray as a top 5 talent. P.S. yes Banchero can turn into a better player than Tobias Harris but he could as easily remain at TH's level. It'll depend if he learns to shoot 3 which may or may not happen. I also dont mind Banchero if he is BPA but personally I have him 5th, I dont like inefficient scorers with no consistent 3 pt range.
