He won’t be 19 until November, so I’d say definitely. I think he’s a sleeper and could long term be the best true big of the draft.
He is interesting because he was just BAD to start the season. He didn't do much of anything except pick up fouls and he didn't move much on the offensive end. The last month something changed for him. He has started doing small things like set screens, come around picks and also has been a lot more fluid of an athlete. He has shown some ability on mid range shooting and a little ball handling. He is still raw and really doesn't have highly developed offensive moves. However with enough shooters around him, he can likely play a Capela type role. He isn't super tall at around 7'0" but he has a wingspan of 7'6" and is strong. He also is not terribly boxy in his movements.
I think they have to come away with a more traditional / rim protecting 5 in this draft one way or another. If the worst happens and they miss out on Chet / Smith depending upon where your first pick is 3-4-5 you might make a move back and look at Griffin & Murray with the idea of playing either at the 3 spot then with the Brooklyn pick one of Davis or Kessler. I'm really torn between Griffin & Murray, Griffin the better shooter but Murray can get his shot whenever he wants. Both shot better than 50% from the floor and 40% from 3 .... but shoot ~75% from the charity stripe.
Positions don't really need to be addressed... talent needs to be addressed. The Rockets aren't trying to win games thank God. They are trying to find out how good guys are. Which is why it's baffling that Stone didn't move EG and Wood at least since it's clear that their ceilings are likely met, or in EG's case in decline. So whether it's small ball, bully ball, whatever... the point is putting players on the court that help guys like Green, KPJ, Sengun, Martin, Tate, etc. showcase their potential abilities. Winning isn't necessarily a relevant part of that equation and therefore matching up to the talent of other teams in order to win games is irrelevant. BUT.... in terms of acquiring superstar level talent... Since 1960, the only players who won an MVP award who were NOT at least 6'6" tall and considered otherworldly athletic were: -Oscar Robinson (almost 6'6" but could still be considered otherworldly athletic) -Charles Barkley -Allen Iverson -Steve Nash -Derrick Rose -Steph Curry -Westbrook -Harden So.... while positions, and size are sort of meaningless, there is an obvious correlation over time with acquiring talent often meaning acquiring height, length, and athleticism anyways. So yes, I am all for acquiring more size, but in the draft talent > size when you are drafting. Go ask Memphis about drafting Hasheem Thabeet over James Harden, or Steph Curry. But yes we need to be taking more projects that have height, length, and athleticism since there's an obvious correlation between those things and value in a player in the NBA. We should be looking a lot more at guys who look like Garuba than someone like Travelin Queen.
I think they take a 5 in this draft as well.... but they likely can deal for a late #1 or even a #2 and get someone like Christian Koloko or Ibou Badji or Yannick Nzosa. With the Nets pick they can look at Walker Kessler or Mark Williams. It really comes down to how much better that they think someone like Kessler is than someone like Koloko. Kessler is a pretty good athlete for his size and is huge and one of the best shot blockers ever in high level college basketball. As for Griffin versus Murray..... I don't think Murray will ever be an even average defender, he is physically limited. I am worried adding him to the Rockets. It is also possible at #5 the Rockets would roll the dice on Duren and see if he develops.
I think the Rockets after taking Green over Mobley and Barnes and drafting Sengun, are at a point where they have to strongly consider drafting players that can defend. Everything should be balanced and is circumstantial but you need defenders.
I thought Murray was at least a decent defender? He has a nice read, plays above average help defence, and can guard the perimeter 'ok'. Probably his biggest weakness was going to be his 3 point shot, but he has improved every month on that front. Perhaps he is a guy who works hard on his game? Maybe not going to be an all-NBA team guy, definitely not a franchise altering superstar, but looks like he has the talent to reach a fringe all-star level with his well rounded game. I also like the idea of picking a 5 with the Nets pick. Scared that the front office will instead sit on Wood Sengun Garuba as the bigs (scared because none of them is especially big!!)
Usually trading back is a really bad idea. I will take Ivey or Smith or Griffin with a top 3 pick. If the Rockets fall to #5 and don't like Griffin or Sharpe and want to move the pick for the Blazers two #1's, and take a combo of like Ty Ty Washington and a big or Eason.... then I can understand it. However you don't pass up elite talents like Holmgren and Ivey to address two spots.
Maybe also long wings too!! For me that is why Smith is a no brainer. Instantly brings spacing, size and defence. Can he develop his face up game to become a primary scoring option? He wouldn't be asked to do that straight away.
I don't think Murray is a good defender or even an average defender. I have seen opinions all over the board from scouts. Some say he is good enough and has the versatility to be able to stay on the floor for 30 minutes a game defensively. When I have seen him he has looked like someone you have to hide some defensively. Offensively there isn't much not to like. I compare him to Danny Granger. If I had more confidence in his defense I would have him 5th in this draft because he is highly skilled. He is known as a hard worker and if he is drafted on a team that has smart players and strong defenders, he could contribute pretty damn quick.
If the Rockets end up with Smith in this draft I will be extremely happy. He isn't going to impact a team defensively to the point that Chet does because of position. Still Smith can be an all NBA type defender at the forward spot. Very good shooter and explosive athlete with good length and mobility. I think he will develop a face up game, as he takes and hits a high number of difficult shots. If the Rockets get Smith at #1-2, they then can have some freedom with the Nets pick.... they can target a point guard like Montero (not ideal, too short) or Ty Ty Washington if they want or they can go big for someone like Kessler.
Danny Granger is an excellent potentisl comparison - I like it! I've watched a bit of Iowa, and the only thing worth noting is that Murray is Mr fixit in defence for them. They lack a true big in the starting 5, and he is asked to provide rim protection as a 6'8 forward - this along with carrying the majority of the scoring responsibility. Given his development from obscurity 2 years ago to where he is nowhere, he MUST be a student of the game who spends time working on aspects. I know I am overly high on him... so I'll leave it there, haha!!
If we can get Jabari, Chet, or Ivey with our pick you stand pat. If Ivey is the pick, you do everything to package the Brooklyn pick, next year’s pick (top 3 protected maybe) any of Wood, Gordon, Tate or even KJM to move up for Duren. Duren has Dwight Howard written all over him with a decent mid-range and good FT form. Ivey Jalen KPJ Sengun Duren Nix or Schroeder Jgup Matthews Garuba or other journeyman big Pretty good rotation that sets you up to be players in the 2024 FA or trade market. Ivey and Green would be virtually unstoppable and Duren would make up for some of their perimeter defensive issues.
Totally agree. I mean talent over everything so they can't draft Thabeet over Curry but if it's not a clear distinguishable difference in talent then you need to be taking the guy who has higher upside from an athletic standpoint or else this team could be stuck with 3 starters in the future who cannot defend or guard the rim, and that's potentially bad in 3 years... but today... I don't really care all that much. What I would like to see is with the G-league call ups that they stop bringing up your Queen's and start taking a look at some of the higher upside talents who can play the 4/5. I know 6'10" + guys in the G-league are few and far to come by, but we gotta prioritize taking a look at some more of those guys. Nobody needs another 3rd string 6'4" guy who can't run the PG at potentially an all-star level. But there's a reason why guys like Trevor Ariza and Nic Batum are still in the league or had been up till this year making bank.
After Kessler's last game against Texas A and M, I do not think he is a legit starting center in the NBA
Chet cannot play the 5 right now, he should be play like Mobley and play the 4....he would be perfect. We need another Athletic Center and Sengun to play the 5
