The team isn’t assuming all the risk. They can insure the contract. Truthfully, if he’s healthy and on the field he’s going to be worth it. If he’s totally injured you collect insurance. There’s an in between where he can play but not well. Everything entails some risk. My bet is correa outperforms his deal. I will take all comers.
At some point over the next ten years Correa will have no value to any team. It may happen six years from now. It may happen six months from now, but it will certainly happen. Do not confuse your enthusiasm (which I share) for acumen. Particularly with the kind of acumen needed to amass the wealth necessary to own a pro baseball team. Those are the people that must be convinced to get Correa what he wants. Our enthusiasm means nothing to them.
You say that as if it’s a fact but that’s supposition as well. 10 years from now Correa will be editing his age 36 season. Lots of players are still valuable after age 36. Almost every HoF player has some value after age 36. I think there is a fair chance Correa plays until he’s 40. I’d absolutely bet he’s still in the bigs 11 seasons from now.
Correa will not be a great player at age 36,37,38…40 and it’s few and far between that stay great at those ages. I love Correa but don’t pretend he’ll be a solid player at those ages. Offer him a solid 7 year deal, if it doesn’t work… tip your hat.
An 8 year deal likely gets it done. Hell, a 10 year deal with an opt out after 3 years (with huge AAV those years) likely gets it done.
Who said great? He said no value. Carlos Beltran probably put up 8 or 10 War after his age 36 season. Biggio probably 6 or so. I refuse to believe that it’s pre-ordained Carlos Correa can’t be a major league regular at 37.
In the entirety of baseball, I'm pretty sure it's accurate to say it is rare for any player to maintain elite skills as they age. For every one that does, there are dozens that don't.
Nelson Cruz, Yadier Molina, our very own Yuli Gurriel, Brett Gardner, and maybe 5-10 other major league regulars 36 or older. mid course he’s not going to play SS. He will move to either 3B with that cannon of an arm, or, more likely, 1B. Biggio had 7 War between 37-40 Beltran had 5 War His similarity score has 3 of the top 10 guys on it as HOF that played with some value past 36.
Rangers added C Mitch Garver from the Twins in exchange for Kiner-Falefa and a prospect. They’re an outfielder away from having a pretty stacked lineup. Too bad their pitching is still pretty much trash.
Yeah, an OF of Brantley/Tucker/Soler would probably be a bottom 10 defensive unit and that's with only a couple of groundball pitchers on staff in Framber/LMJ. It's not like Soler is an elite hitter either.
A 7-year deal is where I'm at as well. With the historical injuries it seems highly improbable that Correa will deliver deep into his 30's. His defensive peak is probably now and we'll see declines from here. Offensively, his peak may occur over the coming 3-4 years, assuming full health, then declines will set in. He's really only played two complete seasons without injuries knocking him off track. The great unknown is whether Jeremy Pena is a capable replacement.
Soler doesn’t make much sense for the Astros; he’s bad on defense, strikes out a lot, and hits right from the right side. Of course he is Cuban and has a 48 HR season on his resume.
Sign him up! But also, **** him, unless of course he repeats his WS performance as a member of the Stros.
He can be, but it will be as a DH or 3B. He's not staying at SS through the end of this deal, and if his back really is a problem then it's unlikely he'll be Nelson Cruzing it late into that deal.
