They can do whatever they want big game hunting. They can (and should) get off ODO easily enough if they wanted to.
Link? That is not CBT (luxury tax salary) Fangraphs and Cots both have them at 193 million and 191 million respectively for luxury tax. Your number is missing something. Does it have player benefits that are included in the luxury tax and are estimated at 15-16 million? Does it have Bregman's luxury tax salary at 20 million even thought he only makes 13 million in real dollars for 2022? I showed the link to fangraphs. Here is the link to cots which is showing 191 for luxury tax right now... https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/
Rule 5 draft being cancelled is nice for the Astros. They could have lost a couple guys. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/03/2021-rule-5-draft-officially-canceled.html
I just don’t think any one position player in this sport has enough impact to demand that investment. 5 years, 32 per is what the FO last offered and i think that’s about right for the return. There are so many other options over the next several years where we are going to want that 32-35 mil. 5 years, and at most 6, is where I would be.
I would do up to 33 years old. Most athletes start to fall off significantly after 33/34. At 33 Correa should still be very good (as long as no back issues). 34,35,36,37 would be years of dramatic drop off. For Bagwell and Biggio however, it was age 36
This is so frustrating. I’m responding to you because you posted last, not because you are the only one with this sentiment. He’s going to get paid until he’s 36 or 37 not because anyone thinks he’s going to be great then, but because he’s worth 50 or 60 million in his prime and nobody wants to pay that, so they extend it out in years (which also benefits the owners by paying in tomorrow dollars instead of today). It’s just a red herring. If you offer him 5/32 you are severely underpaying him for his prime (provided he stays healthy), which is why if you want to pay him 32 a year for the next 5 years then you need to tack on 5 more years at about the same value so that he can underperform the tail end of his career. I bet Carlos would be happy to take a 4 year contract if it started with a 2. Which is what he’s worth if he stays healthy and replicates what he’s done his entire career.
Cool. What you are doing here is pissing in the wind and saying you have no interest in signing and staying in on elite talent. Like it or not that’s what the market is. If we follow this advice we will never have a HOF player in his prime again. I’m not sure what the point is in becoming the tampa rays when we have a good market, but ok.
We should pay Correa. Correa & Tucker need to be what the Astros build around with the farm long term.
Correa is not worth 50-60 million in his prime. I can’t justify paying someone that much or deferring that much down the line to ages 34-38 and paying a player 35-40 million a year at those ages because he was theoretically worth 60 million in his prime. You and I would manage ball clubs differently. I would offer Correa 7 years 245 million… I might even go to 255.
Regardless of what happens. It looks like Crane is ready to keep this train going. He mentioned filling the SS hole (Story?), adding a CF with the uncertainty of Meyers (indicates he’s the guy going forward if that’s what they want), adding bullpen arms. We will be ok.
War on the free agent market if 1 win =‘s 10 million or so. That’s a 50-60 million dollar guy. Because of a limited number of roster spots the more you can consolidate in 1 guy the more valuable that is- so he’s worth it from that perspective too. We saw Bauer get 45 million a year because he was willing to take a 2 year deal- and he’s been historically less valuable than Correa. That’s the going rate. You don’t have to agree with it. You don’t have to pay it. But it is the reality of how the league values players and it is what he’s going to get- one way or another. We saw this with a lesser player from the dodgers signing with the rangers for 10/325. That’s the rate. And it has little to do with how good you think they will be at 37 years old. That’s not the point of the contract- that’s just how these deals get structured.
Make it 6 for 240 and that’s probably getting closer to value. Then, Correa would be 34 and looking to get 60 million or more to make that equal what he could get now. He might do that. But not if it’s a 7, then it’s probably got to be 265 I would think.
Here are the max offers I would make to various free agents: Correa: $280M/10yrs with pa incentives that can get him to $330M and an opt out after 2025. Bryant: $130M/5yrs; he’d play CF this season then LF after that Conforto: $85M/4yrs with incentives to get him to $110M; he’d play CF this season then LF after that Story: $170M/5yrs Freeman: $160M/6yrs; Gurriel would shift to a utility role this season (1B/2B/3B/LF/DH) Schwarber: $90M/4yrs with incentives to get him to $110M; he would rotate between 1B/LF/RF/DH this season then play either 1B or LF after that. This would mean Tucker seeing a lot of time in CF. Castellanos: same as Schwarber Rizzo: $55M/3yrs; same situation as Freeman Soler: $50M/3yrs; he’d play RF with Tucker in CF this season Diekman/Chafin: $12M/2yr Jansen: $40M/3yrs McHugh: $10M/2yrs plus $4M ip and games finished incentives Rosenthal/Hand/Ottovino/Tepera/Givens/Robertson: $4M/1yr Pham, Pederson, McCutcheon, Rosario, Miller, Dickerson: I’d offer them each $6M/1yr plus $3M in pa incentives to be a complementary OF Bradley/Familia/Watson/Smith/Cishek/Rodriguez/Boxberger: minor league deals I expect almost all of those guys to get more than those amounts in real life. I expect to be underwhelmed by Houston’s activity prior to opening day.
