The Jalen Green Experience is Coming

This one statement alone is evidence that you generally just have no idea what you are talking about.

TS% is the first stat anyone uses in determining scoring efficiency. eFG% is a secondary support stat to balance out 3PT% and 2PT%, but you can't literally take away a player's ability to get to the free throw line just because it somehow fits your argument better.

Have you considered not posting so much and perhaps doing a little bit of a research first? If something as basic as eFG% and TS% needs to be explained to you, how could more complicated stats and breakdown get through to you at all?

 

As a tangent - I never had a lot of confidence in TS% vs PPP because of the way it's calculated

For example, if you hit a 3 pointer your TS% for that shot is 150% which makes sense (3 points on 1 fg attempt normally worth 2 points).
But...if you drive to the basket and get an and one and hit for the same 3 points, your TS% for that shot is 104% (WUT?). I guess you can argue that it took 2 shot to get the points vs 1. But seems really confusing, especially if you are an 85% foul shooter for instance.

So good ft shooting players who draw a lot of and 1's get a bit penalized in TS%

But yeah, who looks at eFG% any more?

 

When you say "evidence" what are you referring to? Stats? Eye test? Give me more than just "evidence" because if you're referring to stats that's EASILY obtainable in the year 2022. If it's the eye test then we can end our back and forth because that's purely subjective.

I'll go ahead and assume you mean statistical evidence to which case:

Name	Timeline	Games	FG%	3PT%	TS%
Jalen Green	Pre ASB	43	38.7%	31.1%	51.6%
Jalen Green	Post ASB	8	49.6%	35.9%	58.9%
Anthony Edwards	Pre ASB	36	37.1%	30.2%	46.6%
Anthony Edwards	Post ASB	36	45.4%	34.9%	56.7%
Zach Lavine	Pre ASB	48	41.4%	28.4%	48.5%
Zach Lavine	Post ASB	29	43.1%	38.0%	54.6%
Jaylen Brown	Pre ASB	53	42.7%	30.4%	51.4%
Jaylen Brown	Post ASB	25	49.4%	37.9%	57.9%
Trae Young	Pre ASB	58	40.6%	31.2%	51.9%
Trae Young	Post ASB	23	44.2%	34.8%	57.6%
Darius Garland	Pre ASB	53	39.4%	35.2%	49.4%
Darius Garland	Post ASB	6	45.9%	39.1%	53.1%
Collin Sexton	Pre ASB	58	40.8%	39.2%	48.9%
Collin Sexton	Post ASB	24	47.7%	41.3%	58.5%
Devin Booker	Pre ASB	48	45.0%	40.3%	57.3%
Devin Booker	Post ASB	28	40.1%	28.7%	50.3%
Bradley Beal	Pre ASB	39	39.3%	36.5%	49.6%
Bradley Beal	Post ASB	7	47.1%	45.5%	58.3%

If you want me to do the math for you, Jalen's FG% change between pre and post ASBs is the highest among this group (+ 10.9%), however, Beal and Edwards' FG% improvements in their respective rookie seasons (8.3% and 7.8%) are also noticeably high. Jalen's 3PT% change is +4.8% pre vs post ASB which is about what the average of the other players on this list (3.6%) put up. TS% change is similar to the other rookies on this list with Jalen's +7.3% ranking 4th on this list behind Edwards, Sexton, and Beal. Even if Green kept up at this pace until the rest of the season, statistically, he wouldn't be performing at "ridiculously rare" levels--he would be preforming pretty much how a top lottery pick shooting guard would be.

"I need real advanced metrics"

Ok I got you that information too:

Player	Season	Age	G	MP	PER	TS%	USG%	WS	WS/48	eFG%	OBPM	DBPM	BPM	VORP
Bradley Beal	2012-13	19	56	1745	13.6	51.5%	22.20	3	0.082	47.7%	0	0.2	0.2	1
Devin Booker	2015-16	19	76	2108	11.9	53.5%	23.00	1.9	0.043	48.0%	-1.2	-1.7	-2.8	-0.5
Anthony Edwards	2020-21	19	72	2314	13.9	52.3%	27.00	0.8	0.017	48.8%	-0.9	-1.7	-2.6	-0.3
Jalen Green	2021-22	19	51	1591	11.2	53.0%	22.90	-0.2	-0.005	48.7%	-1.2	-2.4	-3.6	-0.7
Zach LaVine	2014-15	19	77	1902	11.3	51.5%	22.00	-0.7	-0.018	46.5%	-2.2	-2.5	-4.6	-1.3

I only took the players from the first table who started their rookie year as a 19 year old but, again, what Jalen's producing in his rookie season is in line with other shooting guard rookies who were taken in the lottery. This also doesn't include the fact that Green still has 30 more games to go to improve on stats like BPM.

Again, all I ask is for you to clarify what qualifies as evidence to you--statistical, eye-test, tea leaves, etc--so I that I can get on the same page because it seems like we're far apart. You say what Jalen's doing is ridiculously rare; what I'm saying is that it's not that uncommon if you take a look at the numbers from former rookie shooting guards.

I have a subscription to stathead.com and I can pull whatever data you want if it's available.

 

Yes, I believe there were some insecurity issues in play.

Perhaps doubting themselves so by kicking a 19 y/o kid when he was
struggling to transition to the NBA somehow made them feel good about
themselves?

They hoped it would get back to Jalen and devastate him or demoralize him.
Leaving him a shell of himself? Kick him hard in year one because deep
down they feared he would mature....get stronger; and the man-child would
turn into the man-man.

If he doubted himself earlier he has overcome....may be stronger now as
a result of their efforts. Or maybe I'm giving them too much credit.

Keep it going Jalen and don't look back. You got this. GO Rockets!!!!

**If we squint real hard and shine the light on you at just the right angle....
you kinda look almost as good as Jamal Crawford or Lou Williams**

No, just No

 

Outstaaaaanding

 

@steddinotayto is on fire!

 

I usually don’t post when I log off of my work computer but I decided to give CF some attention tonight.

 

No....TS% shows how well someone is shooting the ball, eFG% shows how efficiently they are scoring.

Perhaps do a better job of reading the comments you attempt to respond to and you won't make these kinds of mistakes in future.

 

Another empty post that you could have avoided, if you had simply spent more time doing your own research. It takes 30 seconds to look up what TS% and eFG% is.

True Shooting: True shooting percentage is a measure of shooting efficiency that takes into account field goals, 3-point field goals, and free throws.

eFG: This statistic adjusts for the fact that a 3-point field goal is worth one more point than a 2-point field goal.

 

Yes......and that's why TS% tells you how well someone is shooting, and eFG% tells you how efficiently they are scoring.

Good job kid.

 

Go through those again and see what their rookie jump in eFG% is. Beal doesn't count because he missed most of the 2nd half of the season his rookie year.

You'll find the only player even close to comparable to the jump Green has made is Jaylen Brown....and he started off better and he finished not quite as well.

Like I said, spin it all you want, but the massive leap in performance from Jalen Green over the past month worth of games is absolutely insane....trying to trivialize it by pretending it is something that happens often is just really weird.....but you be you.

 

I'm not trying to sound harsh, but are you having a stroke? This is by far the most nonsensical thing I have read on this board in a while.

TS% = How efficiently a player is scoring.
eFG% = Adjusted FG% accounting for the value of 3 pointers, ignoring free throws.

How is it that you are still not able to understand something so simple.

 

At least now I know you want to use eFG% as a baseline. What parameter do you want me to use for comparisons? I can't use Pre-ASB vs Post-ASB because the variance in # of games played at for each split will vary for each player. Do you want me to look at first 20 games, 30 games and compare it to their overall end of season value? I'm actually letting you dictate the parameters here so that you can't accuse me of "spinning" the data.

 

steddinotayto killing flies with a bazooka.

I like it

 

Lol except this is the exact opposite…

 

You have the patience of Job. I'm impressed. Seriously.

 

@Bobbythegreat

I don't know what parameters you're wanting me to run in regards to eFG% so I decided to go ahead and run it for the following parameters:

eFG% first 25 games played in a rookie season, eFG% for the next 25 games played in a rookie season

I thought this was fair considering Green's only played 51 games and splitting 50 in half is a lot easier than splitting 51.

Name	eFG% first 25 games	eFG% next 25 games	Difference
Jalen Green	48.40%	47.60%	-0.80%
Anthony Edwards	44.60%	46.90%	2.30%
Zach Lavine	42.90%	45.70%	2.80%
Jaylen Brown	51.80%	41.80%	-10.00%
Trae Young	42.30%	51.40%	9.10%
Darius Garland	45.70%	48.10%	2.40%
Collin Sexton	47.70%	41.50%	-6.20%
Devin Booker	56.40%	49.80%	-6.60%

If we're going by MY parameters for eFG% it doesn't look like it's proving anything about how "ridiculously rare" Green's performance has been in comparison to previous rookies shooting guards taken in the lottery. Again, these are MY parameters. If you want me to run something arbitrary like "first 43 games vs next 8 games" I will happily oblige.

EDIT: Before anyone casts doubt on how I got these numbers or think I'm bullshitting here are the steps on how I got it:

1. Looked up the game log for each player in their rookie year via basketball-reference.com. Find the date range on when they played their first 25 games.
2. Go into NBA.com, plug the date range in to find the eFG%. Record data.
3. Go back into basketball-reference.com. Find the date range for games 26 through 50 for same player.
3. Go back in NBA.com plug in new date range to find eFG%. Recrod data.
4. Repeat for the next 8 players.

 

Thanks. If it weren't for you suggesting that I post more years ago I wouldn't be sitting here right now

 

You got that backwards kiddo. Absolutely backwards lol. eFG% is a SHOOTING metric that adjusts percentages for 3 point shots being more valuable, TS% adjusts for BOTH 3 point shoots AND FT's. Just so you know, SCORING consists of baskets + FTs, which eFG% doesn't speak to.

You can pay me for the basketball 101 lesson by donating to the tip jar.

 

My god, booby taking a beating as always.