Not really. The USA used a very very small amount of it's military power in Iraq. An invasion I was against on these boards.... I was also against the invasion of Afghanistan. I am not a War Hawk, especially for "police actions" that do nothing but enrich the already wealthy.... Neither country was a threat to the rest of the world.... that isn't the case with Russia.
It seems exceptionally likely that he will take Moldova when he's done with Ukraine and also likely that the West will not act there either. There's no reason to believe he'd move on Finland or Poland unprovoked. I mean it sounds awful, but the real calculus is whether Moldova and Ukraine are worth fighting for and most countries in the West would say no. If Ukraine had been a stable democracy for the last 20 years and a valued partner things would probably be different.
If we're talking about Putin psychology I will admit I have no certainty about what is going on in Putin's mind but there have been some reports from people who have studied Putin closely about one of his worries. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union the vassal state of Romania also collapsed quickly. The authoritarian ruler Nikolae Ceausecu went almost overnight from the a strongman with complete control of Romania to him and his wife being shot. From what I've been reading Putin is very aware of that example but also is aware of the examples of Moammar Qadafi and other strong men who have come to a brutal end. As such Putin is both paranoid and believes any show of weakness on his part could lead to him coming to the same end as Ceausecu. So while Putin might not be suicidal he might also feel that if he is defeated in Ukraine that might mean his death anyway so in a confrontation with NATO he might as well escalate to even nuclear.
I'm not suggesting that it would be easy to overpower Russia. It is possible depending on how we do it. I don't think a no-fly zone means automatic direct confrontation with Russia. It would depend on their reaction. It's also not a rush. We would need to discuss how it will work with allies, coordinate with Ukraine etc. And while there are some benefits to taking our time and looking how sanctions work and what happens, there are also benefits to building on the momentum and favorable sentiment the Ukrainians are inspiring right now. Cuba and North Korea have been undergoing harsh sanctions for decades and while they aren't thriving, they are surviving. Those places don't have the same resources that Russia does which can help it to survive. As far as coming to a negotiated settlement with Russia or a counter-offensive, those are things that a no-fly zone might be able to help. I agree about not wanting to be bogged down in the region and we should lay out a plan for our role post conflict looks like. I understand there are difficulties and risks with enacting and the no-fly zone. There are also consequences and risk if we don't. It just comes down to which set of risks or benefits you feel outweighs the other.
Heard from some friends in Russia - that Putin is dying from cancer....... Has anyone heard that anywhere else? Or might this just be a rumor in Russia? DD
It wasn't about using a small percentage of our war power. We beat Saddam easily. It was what came after. Everything you talk about is fighting a conventional war. You haven't addressed how our overwhelming power will fight an unconventional and assymetric war. Frankly it's the same overconfidence that we heard from people like Wolfwitz.
The West absolutely does not understand the CCP ...... and the CCP does not understand the West. The fact that Xi is stunned by the brutality of Russians is comical to the West...... as is the idea that China is not concerned about their image being associated with Russia. There are also many many stories of the Western world not understanding the CCP and Chinese sensibilities and reaching nefarious conclusions that really may not be accurate. I know you have discussed this before.... even my relatives in Hong Kong do not really completely understand Chinese sensibilities because of the historical situation in Hong Kong.
This isn't the right question, though. It relies on the faulty assumption that risk of nuclear war only exists with a no-fly zone. We're currently arming Ukraine and destroying Russia's economy. US weapons are shooting down Russian planes and killing Russian soldiers. Putin has already said that sanctions are an act of war. He might use nukes as is - we were clearly willing to take that risk. The question is the degree of risk. You think shooting down some Russian planes would tip him over the edge whereas the complete death of the Russian economy wouldn't. Others disagree.
Again, a war with Russia to defend Ukraine is not comparable to a war against Iraqi insurgency. It's the opposite in fact. Our military rolled up the Iraqi military TWICE in fact with minimal loss of lives in the conventional war. A war with Russia where we were invading Russia to occupy their country would be a disaster of course. Nobody is proposing that.
I'm not talking about occupying Russia. I have ZERO interest in occupying Russia. I have ZERO interest in war with Russia. What I was discussing is IF a war broke out between the USA and Russia, the USA would destroy Russia's military. Occupation is a different animal.
In my opinion, I don't think he takes more than Ukraine but you are right no one knows if he stops there or not. There's no way to know. If we are smart, then what we need to do is lay out a pathway for Russia to get out of the mess it has put itself into - a way to get out of the sanctions on terms it will accept - there needs to be an incentive for Russia to stop. There also needs a way for Russia not to lose face. That's smart diplomacy. I don't think Putin will attack the Baltic states. Again, my opinion as we both know, no one can truly predict his actions. He may not even know what he will do next. But there are NATO forces there and American troops in eastern Europe now. Thus far both sides have not engaged one another throughout their histories. People forget the great lengths the US and Russia took not to attack on another. The US was given a tacit ok to hit Russian mercenaries for instance in their war against ISIS when Moscow told the US that it didn't consider them to be part of the Russian army. Neither side wasn't a war with the other. That's one reason Putin was able to invade Ukraine - it isn't part of NATO and why he never wants it to be part of NATO. Yes he does fear NATO likely as much as we fear his nukes. I don't agree that we are the ones escalating things - it is him and only him. While NATO may be arbitrary, like I said, he can't attack a NATO country without engaging NATO forces and potentially hitting US troops which will draw us into war potentially. Once one side fires on the other, anything can happen. Anything. And this is why neither side has fired upon the other from the start of the cold war through today.
I get your point but I disagree on a bit of nuance. I don't know that Russia would react to a no-fly zone with nukes, but invariably an American fighter would get shot down as well. Then what? The escalation from a no-fly zone seems almost impossible to avoid to be honest.
I agree with you. In the short term I do not see him touching Finland or Sweden. In the long term? Perhaps, but he is more likely to stick to the easier more obtainable areas that won't piss off the West as much. What does he do once he has the Ukraine and Moldova and picks off a few other former Soviet states? We will have to wait and see. I think we both know the calculus has already been done. The West is largely prosperous and have little interest right now in war.
Yeah the big difference is that unless we think America is going to literally retreat from NATO countries and dissolve NATO, then him hitting a NATO country will require Americans to act. I've said on here that I don't know that support for NATO would hold and I do still fear that. Particularly if Biden got voted out and replaced with Trump. But in the immediate term? If Putin send soldiers into Poland or Latvia or Lithuania or Estonia he'd have to kill Americans.
Is Putin? If he doesn't have to risk one or even risk any military involvement from the West, he will not stop. He has no real reason to stop. Until he sees a reason to stop, he won't. I am willing to as much as I am for a NATO nation. That's part of the point. It's a strange relatively arbitrary distinction to make. Sure we'll risk a nuclear war for Poland, but there's no way we'll do it for Ukraine. That is a strange line to draw.
That's the thing - Putin may wait to see what happens in 2024. Trump wins you know he may very well pull out from NATO and given Putin a green light to retake Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Then again, Trump would face fierce resistance from his own party for that so who knows what he would do.
Agreed, all we can do is have educated guesses. I will be very surprised if in 5 years he hasn't attempted to add at least one other former Soviet state to Russia based on history and his comments. I agree. We do not want to reward him for his actions, we want to deter him and China in the future.... but we also do not want a blood bath. If we can get him to take part of the Ukraine and then build up the Ukrainian military after that point, it would be a suitable outcome. I think the new terms of engagement are being written right now, and my concern is that Putin is largely writing them. China is watching as well. This is an interesting question. I can tell you that a number of people that know Putin very well, including his former campaign manager said that Putin fears NATO because he believes it limits his ability to expand his empire.
I agree it's all opinion. But the more painful it is for Putin to take Ukraine, the more he sees that he isn't the only one willing to use his might, the less likely he will be to try and take any of the other nations he claims a right to.
I don't think Trump fears resistance within his own party AT ALL. The elected politicians who would oppose him would have no sway over him. And yeah, Trump getting elected in 2024 and then Putin toppling a few governments is a real possibility.
