Holmgren isn't a guarantee, but very very very few prospects are. Even uber elite prospects like Zion Williamson have major warts. The big deal about Chet Holmgren is that he APPEARS to be someone that can have the type of impact defensively in the paint that the most elite centers in their prime had, while also able to switch and defend at a high level there as well. That type of player is someone that can completely change a defense from a bad defense to an elite defense. With Chet you can have 2-3 mediocre defenders on the floor and still be a top defensive team. On the offensive end he is an elite shooter, who is somewhere between 7'1" and 7'3" with a 7'6"-7'8" wingspan... so he can get his shot off, and he can handle the ball well enough to put the ball on the floor and pull up from 3 or score in transition. He is excellent at cutting to the basket and is starting to show an ability to break people down.... which IF he can do it against NBA players, really opens up his potential as a high volume scorer. He is a very efficient player as well, his very tough and plays hard. He has the UPSIDE to be a very special player, but he isn't a guarantee. The concerns I have with Chet are that I want to see him perform well against elite competition in the tournament to show that he isn't just so much longer than everyone that he can beat up on small or less talented teams. He really cannot get much longer, or there will be injury concerns with Chet. He isn't a 7'0" guy, he is clearly taller than that and longer than most players even at his size. At that length, you start to concern about injuries just because there is so much of him. Having said that, he is not someone that will ever be 300 lbs, so the stress on his body isn't as bad as others and there isn't a strong history of injuries. As far as strength goes, he is wire strong and that is fine in the current NBA. I heard people say Garnett wouldn't be able to handle himself because of his weight. While it is true that strength is strength, Chet is excellent at using balance and his body to impact the game against stronger players. With modern training Chet could do what KD has done and add essentially 15-20 lbs of muscle and be able to bang against 90% of the league. He is never going to be able to lock down Jokic defensively, or even Embiid but almost no one can.... and I would like to see how Jokic is going to stop Chet on the other end. My last concern deals with whether he can be a relative volume scorer. He will get 15-20 a night in his prime with the skill set he has. Between the break, slipping inside, offensive rebounds, threes and being fouled.... he can get a good amount of points at a very high efficiency level. However in order for him to get 25 a night, he will need to pull up and break some players down. He is doing it in transition, and sometimes in the half court... but in the NBA he will need to do it in the half court with defenders that are longer and stronger on him. I don't know if he can do this.... but really this is the cherry on top..... a player that you can build a dominant team defense around, that can stay on the court unlike Rudy Gobert because he can switch, AND can get you 15-20 points a game on a high TS is someone that is a franchise player and worthy of the gamble for the number one pick. I have had a couple people say "don't draft for size", but this isn't a real "project", he already does a number of things very well that are very projectable.
This exactly. He’s a rare prospect that has a high floor as an elite 3&D player and an even higher ceiling, top 5-10 player in the league.
I prefer Chet, but I'm ok with either of them (Jabari, Paolo.) More concerned with getting a top 3 pick than who we are picking
This is where I’m at too. Yes I would prefer Chet because I think he’s the only transcendent talent, but any of the top 3 big guys can be great.
I'm not convinced that Banchero goes in the top 3. I could see him go 4th with Ivey going 3rd. This is a league that values perimeter skills and athleticism.... Ivey has a very high ceiling. Not many players in the NBA can do this....... the way Ivey doesn't just explode on a dime, but takes the longer angle on the baseline and beat multiple defenders to the rim.
Yeah, I have Banchero and Ivey interchangeable for the 3rd spot. I'm honestly ok with either. I'm praying for a top 3 pick if anything
This clip of his game against Ohio State gives you an idea of what he is capable of doing from a skill stand point. Ivey can get his shot off against anyone, and that will mean a lot.
If Chet was going to be used as more a stretch 4 on offense than a center, I would be more comfortable. @Nook you say he can switch but can he really keep an NBA guard from blowing by him while still defending the jumper reasonably well? Then there is the injury question that you see with 7'+ guys Anyway probably moot as the odds are we don't get a top 3 pick
I don't know how it would all work if you have Sengun & Chet on the floor at the same time. But then again it's hard to imagine a Rockets team without a heavy switching defense since we've been seeing so much of it for so long.
Chet can switch on to guards relatively easily. He’s shown it time and time again. Length, mobility and lateral agility is elite. Will he get blown by? Absolutely. Every elite defender does. But he will win more than he loses. The part that makes him special is he isn’t a stick in the mud. He has elite mobility.
I’m no longer as high on Banchero as I was. He’s third for me. I’m torn between Smith and Chet number 1. Either would be perfect fits. Don’t think we can go wrong either way. I’m intrigued with the idea of a Green Ivey backcourt as well, If we land 4-5.
Very fair scouting and the Ingram comparisons are interesting because Ingram was underutilized at Duke as well, I think Holmgren has more of an off the dribble game. I am starting to see a lot of AD in Holmgren with a bit more nastiness, I just wish they would let him do more offensively to get a better idea of his ability to create his own shot against set defenses. If he was just not so freaking skinny and rickety looking, I would be on that hype train, but he just looks like he can come down wrong and blow a knee at any time. He did not have a strong showing against Alabama but that's my only nitpick.
This is 100% fair. I’m very interested to see how Banchero, Chet and Jabari do in March. I think we will have a clearer picture, hopefully
I think Smith will start having questions about his perimeter skills, his lack of ball handling has to raise some red flags, he is going to be easily defended in the NBA without being a strong driver. Banchero has more perimeter skills to me than Smith he can dribble and pass at a high level and can shoot just enough. I am really interested to see if this athleticism narrative continues with Banchero, he does have issues finishing, but I think with better spacing he will be able to finish much better in the NBA. If Sengun can finish at a high level Banchero certainly can.
If a team is looking for Smith to be a ball handler, they have the wrong guy. If they are looking for a guy that can punish teams from behind the three-point line and create space for a star player, he's the guy.
Holmgren will play a lot of 4.... he can play both the 4 and 5.... much like Mobley in Cleveland. As far as defending on the perimeter, he can do a better job than 90-95% of centers in the league.... guards can get around him, but he has very good recovery speed and is so long he typically at least alters the shot. No center in the modern NBA is really able to lock down a perimeter player with elite skills. Holmgren does a good enough job to make a real difference. Imagine AK47 but even longer and more active. Yeah, his size from a injury perspective could be an issue. He is build more like a guard though, so it may not be as big an issue.... plus he is never going to likely way more than like 220 lbs... so weight won't be the issue, just the sheer size of his frame. What stands out is how incredibly agile and skilled he is at his size.
More Chet propaganda: https://www.thestepien.com/2022/03/05/what-chet-holmgren-can-do/ tl;dr - Realistically he's a spot up threat, PnR Roller, dribble handoff operator and receiver, paint finisher, grab and go guy. Potential to become a movement shooter, closeout attacker.
