This was a smart play by Putin because he knows that the Ukraine will not likely agree to it.... it also will cause the West to pressure Ukraine to agree to the conditions. The reality is that at a later date the Ukraine could join NATO.... likewise Putin could change his mind in 6 months.
Or a desperate one as well. I don't really know. Putin was supposed to be done with this 2 weeks ago.
That is possible too, but would be a surprise based on the past predictable behavior of Putin. The USA will have the intelligence necessary to gauge how vulnerable Putin and Russia are. IF by chance Putin is desperate, we can expect monetary/trade warfare to become incredibly common and valuable going forward.... I also think it could cause a split into two halves of the world on the issue of trade and monetary valuation.
Depends on what you call small arms. I agree it's a war of attrition, but I am not sure the Russian people have the stomach for that to last long.
Quite a few things actually. Here are the main reasons: Strategically - he wants it as the key building block to his own elevation as the supreme leader not just of Russia, but to operate as a Neo Soviet Union Figurehead who has branches of presidents underneath him. He doesn't want to worry about elections, and wants legitimacy till his death as a messiah figure. He wants a President of Russia, Ukraine, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Georgia, Armenia, etc. to all answer to him as a leader of leaders. Ukraine is central to that equation. This also leads to Personally which is... Personally- the Strategy above keeps him alive and in power Culturally - Ukraine also is so close to Moscow that it influences it culturally, and he cannot have a thriving Democracy so close to his country where people from Moscow and other parts of Russia travel there and see a higher standard of living, cool restaurants, fun things to do, music festivals, and happy freedom loving people. Financially - He wants to control Russia's business enterprise that passes directly through Ukraine to supply oil and gas to Europe, and a large part of the world. He also wants to raid Ukraine's literal bread basket, and other industries they have stake in. Russia produces didly squat except for oil & natural gas, and their survival economically has always been via control of the more productive former Soviet states like Ukraine, Finland, Lithuania, etc. Environmentally - Water, water, and water. Putin could not have held Crimea much longer because of the Ukrainians blocking the natural flow of water supply to the peninsula. Crimea is essential to Russian's natural access to ports, and trade as well. Crimea is basically Russia's access point to Europe, and it has a major water problem if Russia doesn't control the land north of it. So more than anything Putin wants Ukraine for personal reasons as well as economics, cultural influence over Russia, and power play strategy to rebuild a Soviet Union that is as powerful as the United States.
This has made more sense than anything I have read about Putin's reasons. Good ****. #2 makes total sense and something I never really thought of.
Many thoughts going through my head at this point. 1) Putin is trying to get the band back together again and he's not taking no for an answer. In the end he will inherit the headache of taking over land of people who will despise you. Will he care? Of course not. But it's not going to be fun times for him or the people of his country from here on out. 2) If I had to walk away from my home and land, I can assure you there won't be anything here for you to inherit. Me personally, I'd torch my home, my land, my everything. If I can't have what I worked for, than neither can you. Same with oil and gas. Like Iraq, my fields would be on fire 3) If I'm Moldova, I'm worried that I'm next. 4) China is watching and supporting this because they want Taiwan back. 5) US military would stomp Russia if you took nukes out of the equation. Their hardware is crap. Throwing bodies with old armor at a weakened opponent might have worked near the end of WWII but they'd get stomped by us today. Of course nukes take all advantages off the table. 6) Joe has 3 options right now - keep buying Russian oil, let oil prices get to $200 or open the pipeline and drilling back up. I know it might take years but just the announcement of the 3rd option would be a boost in the arm. He'll choose option 1 AND 2 though because he's Joe. Inflation will be off the charts because of transportation costs. Stock market will be a fraction of the value because I think this is the pop to the bubble that's been building. And really environmentalists...is transporting oil by diesel locomotives really friendlier than building an underground pipeline?
I forgot about the issue of Crimea and water as well. He cannot hold Crimea forever if he doesn't control the natural water supply north of Crimea and Crimea is sort of his access to trade with Europe. Hugely important piece of this story nobody is talking about.
Being a big Eastern block does not make it a great economy. The Sowjet Union, the Eastern part of Germany, they were not really that great financially. We are in Year 2022.
Eastern Ukraine is extremely important economically and it would ruin the country to give these sectors up, also Russia has already brought Janukowytsch to Minsk in order to make him a puppet president of the Ukraine again. The Russian offer only looks good when you don't know the ramifications of it.
When you are Russia and you export nothing but oil and gas, you find high value in taking on anything you can get from the Baltics. I think he mostly cares about the "Sphere of Influence" factor though when it comes to industry and economic viability. Its being able to control whats going on around him, and influencing who does business who who. If he wants to have a power play with the US, he'll have more power to shut off the US or Europe much like the US can do with it's allies when it imposes sanctions, and negotiates unilateral trade agreements. And even if he only cares about oil, he still would have direct routes to Europe without having to deal with pesky countries in between who charge a premium to run pipes over, and under their land.
In this case his approach to the war is hard to predict. A heavy handed approach puts the Cultural and Financial goals at risk, so maybe that rules out wide scale destruction to an extent. But especially for the Strategic and Personal reasons I don't see him as capable of de-escalation. I'm assuming he's thinking that once Zelenskyy dies the country is his. Even Zelenskyy has said something like "as long as this government is here, Ukraine is still yours".
I think everyone is too concerned of the gramps (Putin, Biden, formerly Trump) I worry much about what comes after Putin than what will be under him once this conflict gets resolved. How much trust they could restore with the West. Harsh times are coming for Russia.
It sounds like the actual Russian war machine has stalled. If true, this will be devastating to those Russian conscripts. It’ll still be devastating to the Ukrainians whose homes and schools are being purposely bombed by Russian missiles and jets.
