What's the chance that there is no political solution and the war (in some way and form) drags on for 10, 15 years until Putin dies naturally and the next leader decided to pull out of the costly mistake. We have no idea how this is going to play out.
War as in an insurgency. That seems plausible. I think the only thing that's implausible that's been discussed is Putin (in the near term) pulling out of Ukraine without any gains.
Not likely. The Ukraine is right next to Russia. He will have control of the country or be removed by that point. Will there be uprisings? Yes, very likely, but there isn't going to be a version of what is going on right now for the next 10-15 years.
Ukraine is roughly the population and size of California. If it's a war of attrition there will be nothing left of Ukraine in 2 years. You can't defeat tanks and planes with small arms.
How do you rule a population that’s doesn’t want you there? Not easy I say. Russia will probably need a half million troops police and administrators just to run the place
It's also next to NATO. Not this version, but if Ukrainian wants insurgency, I see NATO supplying them as long as they continue to fight.
It's a pertinent point, and yet, those were hardly thriving metropolises for the next.... 40+ years? The Ukranians, like those comparisons, will obviously fight for sovereignty at any cost, and bless them for it. The question I wonder is what does Putin want out of Ukraine most? USA was hardly a neighbor to Vietnam or Afghanistan and its motives were confused from the start. You can't defeat an ideology. If he wants land or resources or economic benefits, those can be destroyed by collateral damage and maybe he will be stuck in a 'quagmire'. Otherwise, if he just wants to prove a point, modern firepower can wreck that place pretty much instantly without even discussing Nukes. It will already take Russia and Ukraine's economies years to recover from this even if no other physical assets are destroyed. If Putin is just doing this as a "flex" for his legacy, or righting past wrongs, what lengths will he go to for that? I'm more asking questions, I wouldn't call myself well briefed on the thinking of Putin here.
Forget the oligarchs and Putin they are going after their henchmen. What’s next gold chains and cigarettes?
Sadly, I suppose you'd "ideally" use underhanded CIA tactics of assassinations and propping up puppet governments first. Putin is already trying to use the "rebellion and presence of opposition" in Ukraine to his benefit for Russian domestic propaganda. Hence my confusion about the tanks and trucks approach. Seems that he could've danced around this more than he is, which is why I suppose it may be some ego stroking. He feels like this is a moment to flex Russian power?
Vietnam was 9,000 miles away and started nearly 60 years ago.... and the USA would never go all out in Vietnam, and something tells me that isn't the case with Russians. Russia's entry into Afghanistan was a disaster for sure but the situation was very different as well an the power of the USSR is different than Russia when it comes to Putin..... it would be absolutely shocking if Russian elites allow this to go on for 10-15 years.
You rule them brutally usually. This isn't the first time that Ukraine didn't want to be ruled by the Russians..... they cheered the Germans after they were liberated from Russia and the USSR.
From their spokesman today, they want Ukraine's constitution change to guarantee they won't join NATO or EU, cede Crimea to Russia, and recognize the republics in eastern Ukraine as independent. If so, that's clearer than Putin's initial goal to "demilitarize and de-natzify" Ukraine. If there is a political solution, then there should be relative peace. Ukraine of course said they won't give up land. We'll see - if they keep saying that, then they think they have a shot to win more concessions from Russia.
