That is not how this is going to go here. I am looking for a word better than delusional to describe this way of thinking. Maybe someone can help me out with that. The sanctions are not going to be determinative and the Russians are not going to allow themselves to be bullied into submission to these vain, misguided and arrogant people in this way. To do so would concede that as a precedent which would govern international conduct of Russia and other countries going forward. Russia clearly is not going to bow the knee to these people. This is not going to happen. The North Atlantic global elites are foolishly trying to use their usual hysterical lynch mob and cancel tactics against a major world power who is clear and determined in its objectives. If the North Atlantic globalist elites want to declare war and turn this into WWIII, then they could possibly succeed with this effort, but the devastation would be immense and many millions would surely die. The current strategy of sanctions, embargoes and media led shrieking and hysteria is not going to work. We live in a multi-polar world and balance of power politics in international relations is as relevant now as it ever was. The North Atlantic globalist elites are in denial about this, and are arrogantly consumed with the fantasy that we live in a uni-polar world, with them dictating and dominating that arrangement. That is not the case. They are mistaken and their unwillingness to accept that reality is what is motivating their current misguided hysterical escalation strategy, which is is not aligned with the objective of trying to make this stop and providing a viable off-ramp towards ending this tragic situation. We need for cooler heads to prevail here and to focus on a realist, achievable way to make this stop and to provide a viable off-ramp from this very dangerous and terrible situation - Even if the North Atlantic globalist elites have to accept that they are not as dominant and glorious as they apparently like to believe that they are, however unimaginable that may be to them right now.
It's one thing for Generals to send poor kids to die and another to end their families for a single man. Don't over think it.
The most straightforward ceasefire/terms of peace is Russia unilaterally withdrawing its forces. That’s it. There are no extra steps.
Sure there is. Putin cuts his losses. The longer he is in Ukraine the more he loses. Both military and economic. What’s the point of annexing Ukraine if you spent your whole military on it? The Russian demographics are completely against Russia ever rebuilding its war machine and this is just accelerating the demise of Russia. When Putin dies, Russia and its empire will go with him. Ukraine has no way to cut its losses without ceding sovereignty. It’s a defender in an unprovoked war.
The only way Putin can stop this nearly inevitable demise is to reattain the Soviet boundaries (and populations) which current events has shown he will not be able to do.
Regardless of what is "right" the idea that Putin is going to just say "my bad" and go home and leave Ukraine alone is a fantasy. He'll be on (and I'll guess he'll be right) the world, particularly Europe, losing the stomach for these sanctions.
Nobody is going to launch an unprovoked nuclear bomb. Putin cant just push a button, he would have to convince numerous very smart people to end the world and go along with his plan. And you think China is going to go along with that? Seeing what bad shape thier hardware is in, i wouldn't be surprised to learn that none of it even works anymore.
A lot of lives have been sacrificed at the "nobody is going to..." altar historically. Remember that there is a difference between tactical nukes and the use of ICBMs to hit cities in America. If Putin used a tactical nuke to break Ukranian defenses, the world would be very unlikely to retaliate with a nuclear strike on Moscow.
Not sure what you are arguing here? I didn't say they should surrender Kyiv nor did I say that the West should think Putin's aims are limited to Ukraine. I've been clear eyed about this from the jump. I've been pushing back on the "just promise to stay out of NATO and he'll be sweet!" nonsense.
If Ukraine keeps resisting what will likely happen is Putin pulls back and holds on to some territory in Ukraine so he can claim victory.
NATO is not jumping in without provocation (or the Geiger counters start firing). But what we could (and may see) happen is Syria falling due to lack of propping up from Russia, Israel bombing Iranian reactors due to lack of Iranian support from Russia, Azerbaijan re-invading Armenia due to lack of Russian support, and Japan taking back its disputed territories (Kuril islands). Russia as a counter-balance is keeping a stalemate in a lot of regions. China will take advantage and absorb either culturally or financially (or both) the eastern flanks of Russia. None of this is possible without Russian getting its military decimated in Ukraine. Russia committed 80% of its active forces on this, withdrawing from all those other theaters. This invasion has already prompted Germany to re-invest in its military. The world will never be the same. COVID-19 and now 2/2/22 will ensure we never return to the post-great recession-pre-2020 way of life.
I see zero situation where he just turns around and goes home without getting something that he can claim is worth the loses endured. This will most likely end with him taking the Ukraine and installing a puppet government until such time it is easier politically to just annex it.... or he is going to get concessions that are the such that he can spin it to the oligarchs that they will make more money in the long term..... or someone kills him and he is replaced with another mobster, that is likely just a political figure head for a cadre of Russian elites that control everything.
I personally don't think Putin will stop until Ukraine is overthrown and someone else is put in to govern. And who knows if he will stop there. There doesn't seem to be a real solution unless we call Putin's bluff and intervene with military, which also isn't ideal.
One more point: typing these thoughts are therapeutic for me due to the otherwise hopeless nature of conflict (@glynch) and my reluctance to tune it out and pretend it’s not happening. I acknowledge I am neither an expert in these matters nor have any contribution or meaningful solution to the conflict. I have my own personal biases and those are I prefer the liberal democratic tradition to an ethnonationalist tradition.
