There's no guarantee or guardrail to ensure Russia will not attack again to take more land, or try and assasinate Zelensky or hack their elections to install a puppet government. As long as Democracy is on Russia's doorstep, Putin won't be happy and will be a threat. I don't think Zelensky agrees to this out of hand, but I do think it's roughly the deal that everyone anticipated we'll end at. I think for Zelensky it'll be a few things that'll be must haves to agree to that: -Ability for Eastern Ukrainians to migrate West into Ukrainian territory if they choose to. -Freedom to join NATO and EU without being bombed -Reparations for human and infrastructure costs -Water agreement for Crimea (a bigger issue that nobody is talking about). Crimea has a water problem if Ukraine decides to damn it up. That'll lead to conflict alone in the future, and they need an agreement on that. If they don't have a chance to sort out these issues IMO continual war will be inevitable. What needs to happen first though is a true cease fire, and Russian troops need to be pulled back to the bordering regions. Then hold peace talks, and make sure they don't leave the table with any of these issues sorted out or we'll be right back here again sooner rather than later.
Why would Ukraine do any of that when it was the victim of an unprovoked attack from Russia? Pro-Putin Americans can go to Hell!
Fool's bargain. Russia can immediately withdraw from Ukraine and Crimea, with zero concessions given, or be sanctioned into oblivion until such time as they do. Its been 12 days, their economy is destroyed, the Ruble is worthless, Putin is weaker than he has ever been, Russia has been completely blackballed from the global markets, the West is completely united, and Russia is hemorrhaging what little antiquated War hardware they have left. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
Someone called me from Poland this morning...according to my cell phone caller ID. I did not pick up. Don't call me for direct donations. Also, if you are my long lost Polish relatives I've never met, sorry...I don't want to know you.
This is why becoming a NATO country as part of the deal is essential. Putin will never stop at the Eastern regions. As long as Ukraine is a Democracy at his doorstep, he'll keep trying to install a puppet regime. I don't take Putin's deal all that seriously anyways. What are we into... the third Humanitarian Corridor safe zone that Russia has violated? They are not to be trusted. Believe what they do, not what they say.
I've also been getting text messages with random links. People please be alert these next few weeks because of cyber attacks. I have a feeling we are about to get flooded. I know a call from Poland isn't likely that, but still a reminder to be on high alert and don't click anything from anyone.
It's not the job of Ukraine to sacrifice itself to unite the West and destroy the Russian economy. It is true that Ukraine is never getting back Crimea or Donbas territories. They can't fight to win them back and NATO will never help them. IF that were deal were actually realistically available it would be worth taking. It's not realistic though.
That's a very dangerous game of chicken to paint Putin into a corner when he can launch artillery barrages into major cities or nuke one if he feels crazy/desparate enough. I don't think people here understand the deference that must be given to a party willing and able to use nukes.
The increasingly erratic nature of the US on the world stage has to be alarming to NATO members. Gone are the days of a pretty steady hand diplomatically on the international scene.
The need to "win" a moral conflict with Putin could cost tens of thousands of lives. Not sure why people who aren't involved in the fighting nor willing to be are so eager to tell Ukraine how many lives they should sacrifice to exact a pound of payment out of Putin before this ends. If there was a genuine off ramp they would be wise to take it.
In many ways this is playing out like the Iran Iraq war in the 1980s. Revolution followed by its neighbor with a larger military invading to annex core provinces of the revolutionary neighbor. Rather than the nascent government falling due to the overwhelming might of its neighbor (armed with soviet equipment), it persevered and was able to go onto a counteroffensive using western weapons. Despite talks of ceasefires, the invaded country went on the offensive and invaded its neighbor. However this too failed. The original invader launched missiles at the neighbors cities and even used weapons of mass destruction on the invaders to great success. Once peace was agreed upon, neither party changed governments, over a million people had died during the 8 year war, and the invaded country ceded its gains from the invader and no maps were re-drawn. Russia is Iraq and Ukraine is Iran in this re-telling but in the end history rhymes. I expect either Ukraine is demolished and annexed by Russia or Russia is beaten back and loses all claim to Crimea and the “independent republics”. If Ukraine crosses into Russia, it will go nuclear.
A few weeks ago a chunk of this country was convinced Putin wouldn't invade Ukraine and this was all a wag the dog by Biden. Putin is literally ordering generals to massacre Ukrainian citizens by leveling cities. The idea that we would be confident they wouldn't use tactical nukes in a conflict is ridiculous.
“Ukrainians should just submit to Russia!” - Pro Putin Americans “'Like it or don't like it, it's your duty, my beauty.'” - Putin about Ukraine
Important to note something though: -Germany attacked Poland because there was grievances from losing territory during WW1 -Russia attacked Ukraine because there was grievances about territory lost from the Cold War Just having Ukraine "Give land for peace" seems like a no-brainer but I think it's important that Zelensky with the West's help, does not set his country up for a potential rise of longstanding grievance in his country. Zelensky is a good leader, and I think he'll be a good president for a long while if he can stay alive, but Ukraine will be put in a situation where they will likely have a faction of their population that runs on hard line anti-Russian policy, and that might be very popular in Ukraine in the future. So while it sucks because Ukrainians are dying every day, a deal with Russia that gives up territory must be very very well thought out because I just see an inevitable conflict again and again. We all know too well that grievances (in this case would be very very understood) can lead to the wrong guy getting elected, and actions being taken from there. You cannot take Putin at his word on these negotiations, and I think Europe, and the US need to be involved in a pact that solidifies that this war is done, and there are major repercussions for any country in the pact that does not adhere to the peace agreement.
