Checked closer on this twitter account. Doesn't appear he listed any source and his account is not verified. Doesn't mean it's not true, but take reports like this with a grain of salt.
Cutting Russia off SWIFT and crashing the Ruble is like putting up a seige around a walled town and waiting for the people inside to starve or kill each other for scraps. And here we were b****ing about Supply Chain Issues... If that report of Russia collapsing in June is accurate, they could start escalating against NATO around April at the hint of quagmire, I'm not sure what Putin's win conditions are anynore. I assumed he wants to trash Ukraine to destabilize them to the point of economic and military capitulation for a decade or two, but scorched earth is another scale of war crimes, and one the world will collectively wake up and escalate on their part.
All I could think about when he talked about how so many Russians are misinformed and brainwashed, were the millions of Americans who live and breathe what they are fed on Fox News.
I had Enemy at the Gates on in the background and while this is dramatized and a Western movie the battle of Stalingrad was really that bloody and the Russians really were willing to sacrifice many of their own people to win. Amazon Prime had for awhile a bunch of Russian movies and they are worthwhile to watch them for the Russian mindset.
oil production fact check: https://katv.com/news/nation-world/fact-check-team-why-isnt-the-us-producing-more-oil
Russian bond rating downgraded to essentially junk status https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/moodys-cuts-russia-rating-ca-rise-default-risk-2022-03-06/
How does the tweet you posted jibe with the reality of the article you posted? You continue doing these drive-by shots on the energy sector and fail to answer any questions.
then you're a dumbass. that's one of the most incredible, moving, antiwar messages I've ever seen. don't soil it with your idiotic domestic political myopia.
The Russian people must rise up, overwhelming people, it should happen as police are no longer paid....and people who control the mob aren't able to be paid.... Once that happens - we could see the fall of Putin's mob rule. DD
Tbh, I admitted earlier this year about not paying too deeply with Ukraine, and mostly caught up with different sources that seemed interesting or attempted to answer questions in my head. I still think this is a gas play to secure pipelines, new offshore gas fields in Crimea's EEZ, free up the primary water source the Ukrainians blocked that supplies Crimea with their water, destabilize shale oil developments east and west of Ukraine (billions in lost equipment and foreign investment). Russia's Gas monopoly made the EU it's toothless b****, let them get away with invading Georgia and Crimea, turned the tide in the Syrian civil war without lingering complaints, and funded the psyops and hackng infrastructure that plagues the west by amplifying existing nationalist and xenophobic sentiments. There are hegemonic and ussr era grievances by Russia with the NATO angle as well. We've been arming Ukraine post Obama, so Putin also feared it was a race against time. I did some digging of China's relationship w/ Ukraine and they were Ukraine's largest trading partner, not only in agriculture but also advanced military engines. The Chinese would reverse engineer russian designs, then contract a ukranian firm to supply the rest such as advanced radar equipment. It was so lucrative to the point where Ukranians had to stop a Chinese takeover of that defense firm. Supposedly the Chinese had a bad winter harvest and taking Ukraine out will undoubtedly make prices even crazier. Corn futures will also be affected in the coming years. This plus climate change will put stress on countries that heavily import grains and wheat. I don't know enough to guess on how meat will be affected when feedstock can also be impacted. An isolated and weak Russia will draw them tighter to pariah "Axis" states. That benefits China, but China's paramount goal is to grow their gdp to keep their people in check. They can't build a fourth bridge to nowhere, and these events by Russia might seem to be in check as long as it doesn't deteriorate further but will cause "further moments of instability". Or maybe China also feels Russia's desperation and is wargaming a mid decade invasion of their own with Russia clearing out the weeds (not because of Taiwan as a threat but rather their own economy stalling to a level where unrest is intolerable). I dont think any potential gains from Ukraine will bear fruit for China (or Russia) in that time though. Those are all my offhand thoughts. I'd be interested in your thoughts or sources on the China hypothesis. I think Russia was a wheat exporter, but has problems with a strain of blight that some countries including China banned or limited. Special day for Uighurs...a daily choice three servings of poisoned wheat or one serving of the bland kind! Countries like Egypt or Bangladesh were desperate enough then to take it, who knows what they'll do now with Russian sanctions and Ukraine out of play for years. Expect more "arab springs" if climate change ruins even more crops. That's a sure bet. Hope oil prices resolve asap...
