My thoughts exactly only Chet if he is the real deal will move the needle quickly. Do we keep our 2023 pick? I forgot and am too lazy to look it up
I feel like this is the most important thing and what decides between these 2 going 1 or 2. I'd honestly be happy with either.
I will take the higher variance when it has a reasonable chance of success. I would say there is a 20-25% chance he becomes really special and ill take that, because it’s a lot easier to win titles. Yes, if Jabari is Paul George we make the playoffs and we can build around him… but you aren’t winning a title with him leading you… if Chet “hits” you could be looking at multiple MVP’s and an enormous impact on games.
It is… I want to see what Chet does against better competition and pressure…. Whoever seizes the moment gets my pick most likely.
No, I favored Mobley because I didn’t think Green had as high an upside because of his physical limitations on defense and his lack of playmaking ability. I understood why they took Green because of his very high upside on offense with his athleticism and very quick first step and his very strong reputation as a hard worker. However you look at the upside with Green and you are getting a high volume scorer that you hope proves he can playmake some and not embarrass you on defense. You look at Mobley and you knew you would get a very good defender that made few mistakes and on offense he had a very high upside if he could learn to shoot… so the actual upside of Mobley was as high or higher than Green. When a player has a really high defensive floor and upside… and also has a high upside on offense AND lacks physical limitations; that’s a very attractive player in 2022… I had Mobley and Cunningham above Green and had Barnes as more of a question mark but also above Suggs… I understood why the Rockets took Green at #2… they wanted a Harden type impact player, but the lack of length and size with Green concerned me and I knew he was raw. Green was kind of like Ivey last year but without the wingspan. I said that in order for a player with limitations like Green to be better than Mobley or Cunningham, he needed to not be a good or very good scorer - but a great scorer. Green has the same problems he had at the beginning of this season - but he is overall playing a lot better and has erased a lot of the disappointment of the first half of his season. He is still behind Mobley and Barnes and behind Cunningham (because of playmaking) but it’s too early to say Green won’t become a great offensively player.
For me almost every Top 1 or Top 2 pick is high variance unless it is LBJ. Smith does seem to have an easily translatable NBA game but I am evaluating after Year 2. Learned from all of this.
Green proved in the recent events that he can pass the rock, probably not to the extent of a real PG but for an SG it is good. I think he may become an average defender like Harden and pick his favorite defensive assignment (Harden in the post) and so on. The physical deficiencies are there, no doubt. Impeding his game in the Playoffs where the environment would be harsher. The problem is I really thought we should be getting a Doncic kind of package with the 2nd pick. And his fans are JLin cringe level. We should also be aware that Green was coddled by Silas with Playing Time vs other rookies (Greenies would say the opposite, that he is made a corner boy.........)
He has flashed better playmaking than I saw in the G-League and HS… and that is encouraging for sure and part of why I argue his first year hasn’t been as bad as some think from a long term perspective. Defensively he lacks the physical skills someone like Harden or Wade have. Green has a slight frame and a bad wingspan. The hope is effort will make him a neutral defender. He is quick so he may not be picked on as badly as someone like Curry who is a terrible defender without Green and Thompson on the floor. Next year Green needs to work on having an impact on the game even when his shots aren’t falling.
There's only been one really tall and thin 7'+ inside player like chet that had long-term success at an all-star level: KG. All the other ones either got major injuries or feasted as perimeter guys (Dirk, KD). But the list of injuries prematurely limiting or ending promising 7'+ careers is so long - Oden, Sampson, Bowie, Yao, Walton, Bradley, and now Porzingis. On the flip side you could say Chet gets stronger and develops into a Gasol or Gilmore (i doubt it) but he's definitely never going to have the body of a ewing, olajuwon or shaq. So if your sample size of tall skinny big men that he compares best to: KG, Sampson, Bowie, Yao, Walton, Bradley, and Porzingis. That's why I am hesitant on him. Maybe if you don't play him inside and make him into a Dirk or KD you can save him from the pounding inside and make his frame work in the NBA but the historical odds say he is more likely to have injuries limit his career than to be a perennial all-star, and that's why I would pick Jabari Smith.
He did look like 2nd option to me at the draft. The question was and would be if the Rockets are the destination that could teach him the winning way or does he learn it with a contender.
AJ Griffin fits the mold of sons of Average NBA players who turn out to be above average or better players. Klay, Steph, Gary Trent Junior, Larry Nance Jr., Tim Hardaway JR. The list goes on and on. At worst AJ is going to be a solid 3 and D wing.
Why does everyone forget about the great dutch, Rik. Also foot problems. Deke was lanky and healthy. The health of 7 footers is a good concern more than is he too skinny to play in the nba. But I'm taking the leap of faith with Chet.
I really worry about the hype with Holmgren. It's pretty clear the Rockets are dazzled as much by sizzle as they are by steak. While I see the promise of Chet there is a risk with his frame and his long term health that isn't there with Smith or Banchero (as far as we know). I just don't think the Rockets can afford a miss here. Give me Jabari/Kendall Brown or AJG/Tari Eason if the pick slips.
