Hypothetical War - NATO vs Russia - who wins?

from a friend on FB. You can go on NUKEMAP and play with the variables yourself:

https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

 

Your friend’s “friend” at NATO is ignorant if they think only one nuke is aimed at lower Manhattan in a 500 warhead scenario. Every purple triangle will be the target of a 0.5-1 MT device. With a blast radius of 10-20 miles and the resulting fallout, you’d wish you were in the fireball if you were anywhere close to a population center. And if you’re in the sticks, then you’ll likely starve to death as most heavy industry will be offline.

 

on nuclear war simulators including NUKEMAP

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kelsey...ulation-is-not-a-game-to-win/?sh=674320727bdb

 

Is that a gamble you would be willing to take?

Even if this is limited to a purely conventional war, and there are gradations of conventional war given the power of many non nuclear weapons, thousands possibly millions will die. Ukraine, Eastern Europe will be devastated and we have no idea what will happen to the rest of the World.

On paper we can win due to technology edge but things don't often go as planned on paper.

 

I agree with this.

The US and Russia have the two most powerful militaries but a war between the two doesn't mean the rest of the World sits idly. Both countries have many treaty obligations, trade partners and client states. Once those two countries along with NATO are engaged in a war there will be a strong temptation of those other states to act out of what they think is allegiance or to take advantage of the situation to address long standing grievances.

For example Turkey, Syria or Iran could decide that with the US tied up fighting Russia now is a good time to finally solve the Kurdish problem and invade the Kurdish region of Iraq. Iran and Syria could also decide this is a good chance to take on the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia in the long running Sunni Shia conflict. That could start with Iran moving into Iraq and take over the Southern portions there.

In Asia while I don't think the PRC would risk outrightly taking Taiwan with US forces tied up in the European theater they could decide to solve all their other border disputes against Japan, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia and etc by taking over the South and East China Seas.

Also a full on war with Russia will devastate the Global economy. It will disrupt already fragile supply routes and energy routes. There will be a big temptation for countries suffering economic hardship to fight for resources.

I will emphasize again. We will have no idea what happens the moment shots are fired between NATO and Russia.

 

I remembering reading that Indian generals have said similar things regarding war with Pakistan. That even though Pakistan has nukes India could lose 2/3rds of it's population and still have more people than Pakistan.

There's good reason that even though they hate each other and have fought multiple wars India and Pakistan haven't fought a nuclear war yet..

 

If you and your familiy aren't violently melted away by the blast itself, you'll either watch your children starve, or everyone will die in the Louisana Texan food war.

 

I've said if there ever was a nuclear war and/or a giant asteroid strike I would put on my Stros cap grab my glove and find where the missile or rocks would hit and yell "I got it! I got it!"

 

Everyone move to Idaho, looks like state least likely to get hit ..

 

I don't want DD designing my professional NBA basketball team and I don't want DD designing my global nuclear geopolitical strategy

 

**** it I am going to Alaska