What is a waste of time? I honestly am not sure what you think I am saying. I am for sanctions, providing aid but against sending troops or direct military confrontation with Russia. And no, I do not think Ukraine can stop Russia from toppling their gov't and replacing it with a puppet regime.
Cost and opportunity go both ways. If it's a decade of war in Ukraine, it could bring today Russia to a dead-end. In that time, Finland, Sweden whoever else could join NATO, and existing EU countries beefed up their defense to the max. We shouldn't assume anything. War is a mess. Next to impossible (just saying this because nothing is impossible) to get 30 NATO countries to agree. If Russia decided to start WW3, then so be it. We shouldn't make that choice and it's pretty much moot anyway - we can't.
The last time I checked the US government wasn't buying oil from Russia. Companies in the US, yes. Not the government.
That's what makes it so difficult. There are good reasons to ramp things up more as well as to be patient. It's a situation where I'll support and possibly find fault with whichever decision is made. At the same time I'll allow leaders latitude whichever deceaions they make.
based on a quick internet search, it appears that the US gets 3% of its oil from Russia. The data I saw indicated it was 500K bbl/day. As a starting point, it does not appear that we are in any dependent on Russian oil. Also, at those volumes, aren’t we talking about a largely symbolic move that doesn’t have much thump? Beyond that, let’s say it is somehow viewed as a meaningful volume. In that case, do we drive up the price of crude oil? And can’t Russia simply sell to other countries - like China or India? If they can, would they end up with higher total revenues? if the West were to jointly block any purchase of Russian oil, perhaps now we are talking. But then the criticism of Biden would be failing to lead the West toward such a step, not failing to enact those measures in the US. I don’t pretend to know the answers to these questions, but I would certainly suggest that having the answers to these questions would be a good starting point before BLINDLY criticizing whatever decision the Biden Administration is doing or not doing.
Leaders do not need to make any decision - it's already set in law. The red line is well established - NATO. Biden said in his SOTU speech, the US will defend every single inch of NATO. I think being that clear-cut is good both ways. Putin knows where that line is and we do too. We don't need to go fuzz around with all kinds of scenarios. What ifs. NATO is very clear-cut on what it is - collective defense. An attack on one is an attack on all. I do understand the no-fly zone - I thought it was interesting if we can somehow set up one for humanitarian purposes only. I don't know. But let's be clear about the risk to NATO also. Again it's a moot point. But a nation could decide heck with it and go for it. If one starts to reach out to either attack or put oneself in a position that almost guarantees to be attacked (said the US declare a no-fly zone against NATO wishes), that has a good chance of causing division and break up of NATO.
Leaders need to decide to stick to NATO agreements and abandon Ukraine to the Russians or do more for the sake of trying to save Ukraine and take advantage while people are rallied and moved to help because of the Ukrainian resistance. But it shouldn't be done unilaterally. So NATO wouldn't be split and destroyed. I don't think it's impossible to make a case for more action.
Yeah that’s why I haven’t bought for 2 seconds that China is for some reason upset with Russia or surprised. The reality show they put together in Beijing was very telling. But…. I do think Xi pulled a fast one on Putin. I think Xi told him he’d support him and would coordinate Taiwan with him but Xi sat back to first see how the world responds to Putin. If anyones upset with anyone it’s Putin upset with Xi. It’s too early though to know Chinas angle. I’m guessing they could still get involved and support Russia with supplies and economic support. Likewise they could also turn on Putin. I get the feeling Xi is trying to play like Littlefinger on Game of Thrones.
That's diametric thinking. That if we don't militarily confront Putin then we're just letting him do what he wants. There is a lot of things in place now that is opposing Putin and more coming. It's not just sanctions but we and our allies are arming the Ukrainians with the latest weapons and likely sharing intel with them too. While no US troops are engaged in combat I wouldn't be surprised if US special forces and agents are active there collecting intel and providing training to the Ukrainians. Finally there is the very bright line that if Putin does attack a NATO country at that point we have to respond militarily. Again this comes down to are you willing to gamble the lives of US troops and possibly WWIII on Ukraine?
It's exasperating. There's a huge desire to do more for Ukraine, I certainly feel it, more as in getting our military involved, but it would be madness without direct action by Putin against NATO.
I don't think any of us can say with certainty what Putin would do. I also don't think if NATO intervenes even if it is just a no-fly zone fighting will be limited to Ukraine. The US encountered this problem with in Vietnam would VC troops would just move across the borders into Cambodia. That's what led to the war expanding into Cambodia and ultimately the rise of the Khmer Rouge. Also during the invasion of Iraq while the US had air superiority early on much of the Iraqi air force ended up flying to Syria and Iran. In the case of an No Fly Zone over Ukraine Russia planes can easily duck past the borders back into Russia or Belarus and dare NATO to follow. In those countries will also be SAM batteries and radar installation that can provide cover and direction to Russian planes. Even if Russia planes are grounded Russia can still launch missiles and even artillery into Ukraine. Unless NATO is willing to take out those facilities just maintaining a no-flyzone over Ukraine won't be too effective. The calculus works on the other side too. Russia could decide to take out radar and other support facilities of NATO in Poland and other NATO countries close to Ukraine to try to blind NATO. Given that Russians also have anti-satellite capability they could take out US satellites so satellite guided drones can't fly. Again there are many many ways that this can go wrong and spread well beyond Ukraine.
