I don't think there is any question now Chet is #1. Paolo has been doing worse as the season has progressed and Chet has been doing better, he's actually living up to his expectations as a 7ft plus rim protector and skilled shooter plus down low presence. No way he should not go #1 the numbers are clear as day (just like the numbers didn't lie with Mobley). Paolo I'm worried about now, he's not only not doing as well but actually doing worse as the season goes on, he was dropping 25+ regularly at the beginning of the season and in relation is now playing horrible, that's a red flag, I would expect by this time in the season he would be even better and learning to dominate at this level (like Chet). That bothers me even if he starts playing better later on.
Chet and Jabari should be clear favorites. I prefer Chet because he’s longer, better handles, more upside offensively and a better defender. Jabari has the better frame and equally good shooter. I have my preference but if we can get either, that’s a win.
I watched a complete game with Duke against Syracuse, You could see how Banchero's lack of elite athleticism will affect him, he had trouble finishing at the rim, but he was getting a fouled a lot, and it was not called. I still like his overall skill level better than anybody but as a high upside guy he is not at the top. I could see him dropping and would love to get him around the 6 - 8 range which is a more realistic place to be picking.
Holmgren got worked a couple of times on the block makes me wonder how he would do against NBA guys, he also had trouble getting around guys off the dribble have to question if his handles just translates to the open court because he is so tall and has a long dribble that's not conducive to tight spaces. There really is no complete package prospect in this draft, they all have some real question marks.
Holmgren got exposed by a conference opponent on the road ... the second time they saw him. What does this mean for Holmgren's future in the NBA? This is a very hard call. The kid is only 19/20 with only one year of high level D1 college experience. He has the tools to be star in the NBA, but he will be a work in progress ... until he is not. I have been surprised that Gonzaga has not given Holmgren more touches from the three point line. He should be able to hit a high percentage of his 3s or make quality passes to cutters. This should be something that Gonzaga can exploit against all opponents. The only downside that I can see is that Holmgren is further from the rim and will miss out on OR opportunities (on the flip side the opponent 4/5 guarding will miss out on DRs as well). This is also the exact role Holmgren will likely be playing on offense as a NBA rookie ... which should be very hard to scheme against. It sucks that Holmgren (and Jabari for that matter) are playing on quality teams where they do not have to be the first or second option on offense. NBA scouts are going to have project on whether or not Holmgren (and Jabari) can carry that load in the NBA.
I also think that it’s a positive for both of them as well. Knowing that on the low end they can be valuable pieces with upside to be the piece.
He was getting plenty of touches in the early season above the 3 point line I just think teams are adjusting, and I disagree about Jabari he plays in a terrible offense with 2 selfish guards that don't really integrate him at all, and he takes a lot of shots out of any offensive flow. Most of jabari's shots come from some type of isolation.
I don't see Chet (or Jabari) as the first option in the NBA. Chet is basically going to be asked to play like he plays on offense, and Jabari is going to be asked to shoot threes or attack closeouts with 1-2 dribbles. I think that would be easy for NBA scouts to project versus Paolo who will likely have to adjust to being a second or third option on offense.
Paolo's 9 assists in the win for his team were pretty special - it showed that he's working on his criticisms in real time (needed to become a better playmaker they said). More assists than Smith and Holmgren combined over the last 3 games (15 for Paolo vs 9 Smith/Holmgren combined). Shows why NBA level analysts love how his game will translate and make an immediate impact on any team he joins. Tailor made for the NBA. He is learning how to deal with double teams and how to make winning plays out of those doubles. When his outside shot is dropping there isnt much you can do to scheme him out of being an effective player with his midrange and back to the basket ability. Equal in defensive win shares with Jabari Smith at 2.0 and interestingly enough both guys share the same wingspan at 7'1. Jabari had a good, high volume game in the loss. Smoothest jumper among the 3 and I think he can develop some dribble penetration moves eventually as he shows that ability in spurts. Fluid defender and can be a + player while he develops. My #2. I do think NBA defensive schemes can take away a jump shooter in game deciding plays so Smith will need to develop some counters and dribble penetration to keep that from happening. For a guy who's touted as a much better defender than Banchero I dont see that myself when I watch him play and when I go digging for stats to back up that claim. I see both players as equals on the defensive side, but Banchero will mix it up in the paint and is not just a long perimeter defender. Chet had a stinker while his team was shocked by St Marys. Another "ranked" opponent that has found a way to take him out of the game. He's not as quick as some guys make him out to be, definitely not the type of guy who's going to be breaking down NBA defenders with his dribble. He will be a 3&D guy too to start his NBA career. Decent outside shot when he's open. That coast to coast stuff is pretty cool. Hard to see him being much more than a spot up shooter early until he can develop some dribble drive ability and low post moves that are successful vs NBA level defenders. Defense will be his calling card while he smooths out his game - and thats ok. Still think he will struggle with the physicality of the league. "he doesnt back down" is all well and good when playing the San Francisco's of the world, but when opponents have tough inside players he struggles. For a guy who's only 2" taller than Smith or Banchero his offensive game feels like he's a 7'7 guy. Clunky and rough around the edges. He does have the best shot blocking instincts. He will be a great complimentary/glue player, but will probably never be a #1 option in the NBA.
I think Chet’s offensive capabilities in the nba is overrated. I think his defensive capabilities are underrated. He will be a great fit with Sengun. He is Wood offensively and Mobley light on defense. I still worry about Banchero’s defensive want to.
Wood on offense with Mobley defense is a better AD. And I don’t think there will be any discernible difference between Mobley and Chet on defense. Chet slightly better post defender and Mobley slightly better on perimeter.
This is my take as well, I think Holmgrens handle makes more than a 3&D guy, but I don't see him being a dynamic scorer that can be your #1 option.
