AJ Griffin has flaws. His biggest issue is that he doesn't completely trust his dribble. He has the quickness and strength and footwork to score off the bounce but doesn't handle pressure on ball as well as he needs to. It impacts his ability to get to the rim. He is an exceptional shooter though, he is nearly a 50% shooter from 3 and he can hit 3's off of passes or while moving. His footwork will take him a long way. As his handle improves he will see his game expand. He has a really high basketball IQ and an exceptional body. I think he is actually a little underrated as an athlete. He has quick feet and a really strong second step. He is the age of a high school senior this year and he didn't really play his junior or senior year of high school. I think you add it all together and you have a very high end prospect with the potential to be a scorer at all levels. Another question to ask is how good a playmaker he will be when he improves his handle.... he also is extremely professional and has been very very well coached. I can understand team wanting Banchero/Holmgren/Ivey over him.... but other than possibly Sharpe, I don't see a better prospect out there. He needs to improve some things but they are skills that typically improve as players get more experienced. Last, part of his value is dependent on how good a defender he will be. He should be at least average, but if he puts in the work he could be a very good defender. I have Griffin as the 5-6th best prospect in this draft. He is clearly outside of the top 4, and could go as high as #5 dependent on what Sharpe does. I expect Griffin to do very well at private workouts and the combine.
I think he's gonna end up falling short of his potential offensively. He has a lot of raw skills, but ultimately I think he probably ends up a tier below where he could be. He'll get bigger, but I doubt it's gonna be anywhere close to the Giannis transformation. I just get a feeling he won't fully pan out on offense. Defensively I think he'll be an absolute pest, and if he's on another team it'll piss me off to no end watching that 7 foot string bean swallow up shot attempts.
I think dribbling and passing are things you either have an innate ability or you don't, you can get better, but you never really get to a plus level. He has a great 3 point stroke I know this is going out on a limb but he kind of reminds me of a better Benny Mc with more ability to drive. I just don't see much of the dribble, but much better defense.
UPDATED 1. Chet Holmgren C Has the highest ceiling in the draft because of his dominant defensive ability, his elite shooting and developing ball handling. A lot of things would need to go right, but if he stays healthy and develops he has the potential to be an MVP and lead a team to titles. He has exceptional instincts as a shot blocker. He doesn't have freakish athleticism, but is very mobile. His second step is very good and his vertical is going to surprise people. Some around Gonzaga say he is closer to 7'3" at this time than 7'0". He is deadly in transition once he gets going. He has concerns though. First, he needs to play better against really good teams. Crafty coaching has bothered him at points as well. He also needs to improve his handle if he really wants to reach his potential. His lack of girth isn't the death knell that it would have been 20 years ago, but he still needs to get stronger and while he should be able to, there are questions. Jabari Smith will make a push for the #1 spot, but if Chet plays really well in the tournament, he should be the pick. 2. Jabari Smith SF/PF Shooting is what separates Smith from other similar type prospects in the past. He has shown an improved ability to consistently hit hard shots. Now a lot of people will say that is a bad thing, but in the playoffs, players that can hit difficult shots really perform well. Smith also is quite quick and has shown a streak of wanting the ball. The negatives are that he isn't really a player you hand the ball and ask him to take over. He still needs a guard to get him the ball. This isn't always the worst thing, look no further than KD. Before the college season started, a number of former players said Jabari was the most impressive player in the class and they may be right. 3.Jaden Ivey COMBO He isn't as unique as Chet and he isn't as sure a thing as Jabari, but there is a real possibility that he is the best actual player in this draft. He is an electrifying athlete with an excellent first step, and can get around a corner like Morant. He is physically close to ideal for a combo guard and has a mean streak. He reminds me a lot of Dwayne Wade coming out of college. His flaws are obvious, he needs to continue to improve his shot and he needs to continue to improve his playmaking. He would be an excellent fit with Jalen Green. 4. Paolo Banchero PF/C He has been pretty close to the player he was advertised to be. He is very very strong on the offensive side. He has some playmaking ability and can handle the ball. He needs to improve his shooting and exceed expectations on the defensive side. 5. Shaedon Sharpe With Sharpe it is 100% going to depend on private workouts. He has all the physical tools to be a Hall of Famer, but does he have the feel or desire for the game? How is his court vision? Reports are that the court vision is good, but high school scouting reports are not always accurate. 6. AJ Griffin Still a lot of questions left to be answered. He has shown that he is an excellent shooter, a very good athlete and extremely efficient and capable of defending. His handle and ability to take contact are left to be answered. 7. Johnny Davis SG 8. Kegan Murray SF? 9.TyTy Washington PG 10. Tari Eason 11.Nikola Jovic PF/C 12. Kendall Brown 13. Benedict Mathurin SG 14. Walker Kessler 15. Jean Montero PG
Thanks for the write-up. Just curious, why do you say Ivey is a good fit next to Green? Seems to me they are not very complimentary to each other’s game.
Ivey is very long and capable of playing both guard spots defensively. He is 6'4" and has a 6'10" wingspan and has a lot of quickness. So he has the potential to be a very good defender. Also he is a good fit because he is a developing combo guard, which would allow Green to handle the ball some. Ivey is very very explosive as an athlete, and his penetration would get Green open shots. He is also a perfect running mate in transition as both players are very good in the open court. Having athletes like Green and Ivey together would cause lots of problems for other teams. The Rockets have a larger need for a really good post/overall defender like Holmgren..... but if the Rockets pick 3/4, Ivey is a very good consolation prize.
Hypothetical here, please play along with me. Say we land top 2 and get wither chet or jabari. Say Portland is willing to offer #8 for bkn1st+wood. Out of the 7-15 list who's the guy your making that trade to pick at 8? Again, thanks for the update. I'm hoping Kendal Brown slides to our BKN pick as that seems reasonable.
Hmm.... so I think it partially depends on WHO we take at #2. If we take Holmgren, then the need is going to be more perimeter oriented. If we Take Jabari, then I can see us taking a point guard or a center.... Because of poor defense we likely aren't taking someone that cannot defend at #8. I think I would take Tari Eason at #8 if we get Chet.... Eason is someone with a lot of upside, his athleticism and length fir perfect with Chet.... who is very mobile and a great shot blocker but not an elite athlete. Eason has the upside to be a good defender, if not better than good. He also is known as a very verbal communicator on the court with defensive switches, and that would go very well with Chet. You then have a rough outline of a team going forward..... with Chet at the 5, Eason possibly at the 3-4 and Sengun at the 4-5.... and if one of those guys doesn't develop, you still have a good thing going with the other two..... and then you have Green in the backcourt and you give Porter another year... but keep an eye out for a passing, defensive point guard with size. If the Rockets take Smith at #2.... then you have a different situation because while Eason and Smith at the 3-4 is explosive athletically and defensively potentially, I don't know that I like Sengun at the 5 because the lane will be too open.... So I may reach slightly and take Ty Ty Washington and hope he can play the point next to Green.... or I just suck it up and take Kegan Murray or Johnny Davis as the guys with strong skills and figure I will make moves defensively down the line.... for example, I may then try to target Kessler if he falls into the bottom of the 1st... while he isn't a stretch, he is at least an elite rim protector for me when Green etc. let their man get to the basket.
In your scenario, at pick #8, assuming Griffin is off the board (as expected) ... My target would be Jovic I think he has the ball skills and movement to play SF full-time A front line of Sengun, JSJ/Chet, Jovic would be huge, long, athletic, versatile and very complementary
Awesome. Thanks for the insight. Seems, while not perfect, Eason could be the "perfect" target at the tail end of the lottery that would fit next to all potential draftees at the top. While with Jabari and Paolo you may want more pg, having Eason would still be very viable. Paired with chet and ivey seem an obvious fit as well. I've seen other posters I respect speak high on Eason as well. Seems this will be who I start looking into and watching tape on.
Idk if I trust that frontcourt so much. The twin 7fters doesnt seem to ever be super successful outside of having a generational talent with another great player. like dirk (with chandler), duncan (with robinson). Then you factor in sengun and it seems like another Indiana position where you have some good frontxourt players but bad chemistry and team.
If the Rockets manage to trade up to the 8-12 range with the Nets pick and a future pick; who do you take?
I haven't seen enough of Jovic defensively to say if he will work. Almost everything I have seen of him has been on the offensive side.
For the #2 and #8 pick scenario, Chet or Smith (Chet if both available) and then Eason. I would not be disappointed with Murray or Mathurin.
That's a great question. More importantly, I DO hope the Rockets can trade up to that spot. It might depend on who the Rockets take with their own pick. If they take Jabari, then I might look at Duren. If they take Chet then perhaps Mathurin? I don't know all of these prospects as well as you do, but in general, I like the idea of trying to move the BKN FRP to get into that 8-12 range.
If Rockets luck out and are in position to take either Chet OR Jabari. I still draft 6'9 Tari Eason (7'2 wingspan) with Nets pick. For exactly the reasons you point out, perimeter defense and LENGTH is critical around BOTH Sengun and Green. Give me Chet/Jabari and Tari. May not even need to trade up to do this either. Rockets defense is the worst in NBA, this must be a priority IMO. FYI - trade up should only be done if a player like Griffin slides. Still believe Nets pick will be a lottery pick.
