I 100% understand that and agree that Europe and especially Germany own what they've done to give Russia the energy leverage they've had to disrupt the economy if they get shoved out. Hillary Clinton this morning talked about her pleas to them back when she was secretary of state to not invest in Russian energy supplies or it'll come back to bite them... which is a big reason why Putin hates Hillary and did not want her as President. Germany sided with Putin over Obama/Hillary on energy/Russia and it's a big reason why we are in this mess from an energy perspective. As much as people don't want to talk about F-ing Hillary, that chapter in history with her as SOS will be a huge piece of the equation in the lead up to this crescendo. I'm just wondering about the "Take them Out" sentiment, and the hell that actually means. Germany and much of Europe made huge mistakes but I don't know how you get from that point to "We need to take them out."
Financial Times issues warning to investor that we should prepare for "realistic possibility" of a Russian attack against a NATO ally
European NatGas Prices Plunge As Russian Flows Via Ukraine Soar On Friday, Dutch TTF Gas prices plunged as much as 28%... ...on new data supplied by Bloomberg via Gazprom PJSC that natgas flows from Russia, through Ukraine, and into Europe jumped almost 38% on Thursday and are expected to rise 24% on Friday. "Utilities are ordering more of the fuel under long-term contracts with Gazprom PJSC. That's because the deals are priced in such a way that Russian imports are now cheaper than spot gas traded at European hubs. The development follows months of limited Russian exports," Bloomberg explains. BCS Global Markets' commodity desk told clients that "Gazprom's month-forward contracts have been 'out-of-the-money' all year, keeping exports low. That changed yesterday as prices jumped, and demand for Russian gas has risen sharply, and could well rise further in the coming days." Gazprom reiterated that natgas flows via Ukraine are running as normal and will increase upon client requests. Russian flows through Ukraine are rebounding, though a pipeline into Germany via Poland remains muted.
Was on snapchat map for a bit this morning looking at Ukraine .... doesn’t look like much has been captured . everyone evacuated ? Some of it even looks normal . idk if I’d call this “full scale” like our news is
Yup Germany totally screwed up and I think the world is finally catching onto the very nebulous relationship between Germany and Russia. And its not just bad government policies (like reliance on Russian energy). German banks have huge exposure to Russian debt. German companies are more reliant on Russian financing. Germany has let Russia impact its economy in almost every conceivable way and left itself totally exposed. Other European countries have this problem as well but none of them are as bad as Germany. And the reality is that Germany is going to have to untangle itself out of this one and it'll be really painful. With that said, no one is "taking out" Germany. Germany will likely have to suffer a very hard fall as a result of this war. I expect Russian access to SWIFT to eventually go away and with it, Germany will lose its ability to pay for Russian oil and gas and to receive debt repayment and foreign investment from Russia. I work with a lot of Germans and I really feel bad that the brunt of bad policymaking will hit the German population. I will object to one thing, I think all of the major German parties are complicit in these policy failures. I dont think this is just the Social Democrats (even though Gerhard Schroder is a national disgrace). Everyone is at fault for letting this happen. Hopefully there is some planning to at least minimize the impact on oil markets. Gas is a different story as I don't know how Germany can mitigate the loss of Russian gas.
Its not full scale because Russia wants a quick victory. But its looking like Russia will have to bring in more troops and probably commit a lot of war crimes along the way. This is going to get much uglier.
the 80s called . . . Americans don't like Russia new Gallup poll: https://news.gallup.com/poll/390140/public-sees-russia-ukraine-conflict-critical-threat.aspx
It feels weird to say you're happy to hear he's staying behind with what likely means his death. But I am happy to see he'll stay behind with his people.
Biden seems to have lost the Politico crowd Putin was playing Biden all along The U.S. president and his aides thought they could manage Putin. Their calculations were dead wrong. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/24/putin-was-playing-biden-all-along-00011555 excerpt: On Thursday, Biden doubled down on the existing strategy, unveiling more sanctions, deploying more U.S. troops to Europe and promising more diplomacy to keep America and its allies unified. He warned that “Putin’s aggression against Ukraine will end up costing Russia dearly economically and strategically. We will make sure of that. Putin will be a pariah on the international stage.” At the same time, Biden dismissed questions about whether he’d fully appreciated Putin’s thinking. “I didn’t underestimate him,” he insisted. But even some supporters of the Biden administration beg to differ. more at the link
All of that is true. But you left out the part where Germany reversed course on Nord Stream 2 and halted the approval. I think looking at the complete picture and especially the present situation is important as well.
I guess I don't understand what they think would have been been the right way to play this. Short of putting American troops in Ukraine to guarantee their sovereignty, I don't understand what anyone thinks we could have done to stop this. Edit: Also, "all along?" Biden has been president for just over a year and the last few months he's been out there warning this was about to happen and getting **** on by Republicans and Fox News for faking it. Seems like he knew exactly what Putin was about.
So what? If we're not going to use the system to pressure them anyway, who cares if they have their own system? But in the meantime, it will make it hell for them to finance things and move money, especially when dealing with the west. Europe has legitimate concerns there because they interact so much with Russia. But beyond that, making Russia create a new system to move funds around is only a "very bad idea" if you're pro-Russia and are trying to manipulate public opinion about using the mother-of-all-sanctions on Russia.
Ukraine's ability to hold off Russia depends on its morale and will to fight. His staying in Kyiv is an important signal to the military and the country. I'm beyond impressed with the will of the Ukrainian military and This is overrated. Nordstream 2 wasn't online yet so there was no net less in gas imports. When Germany finally supports booting Russia from SWIFT, then I'll agree that they're showing some courage. But stopping the certification wasn't as impressive as it would seem.
